Collector

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$30.36

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $26.72 from 104 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.73%

374 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

21 openings · below min

7 days

88.38%±13.02345 openings

30 days

85.73%±12.43374 openings

since tracking started

85.73%±12.43374 openings

23.5%71.2%119.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	21	71.20%±47.1	—	odds
7d	345	88.38%±13.0	+0.2σ	odds
30d	374	85.73%±12.4	−0.1σ	odds
All	374	85.73%±12.4	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values104 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 400 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$587	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,762	$545	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,762	$522	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,762	$521	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,545	$497	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,167	$465	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,000	$456	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Midnight Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,000	$436	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,000	$433	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,704	$410	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Midnight Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,704	$405	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,571	$400	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,448	$377	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 3,448	$375	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,226	$354	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Midnight Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,125	$345	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$316	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$315	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,778	$308	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$275	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$222	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$220	0.4%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$219	0.4%	0	0.2	—
SCAR-20 \| Brass (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,961	$218	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,961	$217	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$217	0.4%	2	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$215	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,923	$215	0.4%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,887	$211	0.4%	0	0.2	—
XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,754	$193	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,639	$183	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,613	$179	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$175	0.4%	0	0.3	—
XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,370	$152	0.4%	0	0.3	—
XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,389	$152	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,351	$149	0.4%	0	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,316	$146	0.4%	0	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Sundown (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,299	$145	0.4%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,266	$141	0.4%	0	0.3	—
SCAR-20 \| Brass (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,235	$137	0.4%	0	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Sundown (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,235	$136	0.4%	2	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,235	$136	0.4%	0	0.3	—
SCAR-20 \| Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,190	$131	0.4%	0	0.3	—
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,190	$131	0.4%	2	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,149	$126	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,136	$125	0.4%	1	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,136	$125	0.4%	2	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,111	$123	0.4%	0	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,111	$122	0.4%	0	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 1,099	$121	0.4%	0	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 1,087	$121	0.4%	0	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,053	$116	0.4%	0	0.4	—
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 980	$108	0.4%	0	0.4	—
XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 980	$108	0.4%	0	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 952	$106	0.4%	0	0.4	—
FAMAS \| Sundown (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 943	$104	0.4%	2	0.4	—
SCAR-20 \| Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 943	$104	0.4%	0	0.4	—
XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Heavy	1 in 917	$102	0.4%	0	0.4	—
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 909	$101	0.4%	0	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 901	$100	0.4%	1	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 901	$99.34	0.4%	2	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 893	$98.92	0.4%	0	0.4	—
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 833	$92.36	0.4%	0	0.5	—
MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 820	$90.08	0.4%	2	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 806	$88.82	0.4%	0	0.5	—
MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 787	$87.23	0.4%	0	0.5	—
UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 775	$85.91	0.4%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 775	$85.09	0.4%	1	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Sundown (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 758	$83.72	0.4%	1	0.5	—
Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 730	$80.94	0.4%	1	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Brass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 730	$80.78	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 725	$80.23	0.4%	0	0.6	—
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 714	$78.80	0.4%	0	0.6	—
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 704	$77.90	0.4%	0	0.6	—
UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 676	$74.53	0.4%	0	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 671	$74.44	0.4%	1	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 588	$65.15	0.4%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 549	$60.80	0.4%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 538	$59.32	0.4%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 500	$55.14	0.4%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 490	$54.34	0.4%	0	0.8	—
P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 481	$53.24	0.4%	1	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 420	$46.45	0.4%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 412	$45.53	0.4%	3	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 397	$43.87	0.4%	2	1.0	1.98×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 386	$42.72	0.4%	1	1.0	0.97×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 319	$35.35	0.4%	2	1.3	1.60×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 309	$34.06	0.4%	1	1.3	0.77×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 306	$33.75	0.4%	2	1.3	1.53×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 281	$31.06	0.4%	1	1.4	0.70×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 280	$30.96	0.4%	2	1.4	1.40×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 279	$30.78	0.4%	2	1.4	1.39×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 268	$29.64	0.4%	2	1.5	1.34×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 254	$28.09	0.4%	3	1.6	1.90×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 15	$25.09	6.1%	25	26.0	0.96×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 15	$24.80	6.1%	28	26.3	1.06×
P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$20.32	6.1%	28	32.1	0.87×
P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$20.14	6.1%	35	32.4	1.08×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$19.13	6.1%	27	34.1	0.79×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 10	$16.81	6.1%	43	38.9	1.11×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.0%	$16.27	6.1%	31	40.1	0.77×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	10.1%	$16.20	6.1%	37	40.3	0.92×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	10.7%	$15.28	6.1%	57	42.7	1.33×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	11.0%	$14.85	6.1%	40	44.0	0.91×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/collector, 10 Nov, 15:35 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedbongomurzynkongo$95.00$25.090.26x8h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedRerimex$19.00$24.801.31x8h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedshubidibap$34.50$15.280.44x9h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedU1tra$30.36$15.280.50x18h

AK-47 | Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedondřej ツ$30.36$25.090.83x19h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedondřej ツ$30.36$16.810.55x19h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedSyzen$30.36$16.810.55x19h

AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedWhy_NoT$30.36$16.270.54x20h

AK-47 | Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedSoMuchCumInmyAss$30.36$25.090.83x20h

AK-47 | Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedscrappy.coco$30.36$16.200.53x20h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$30.36	88.00%	104
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$30.36	88.00%	104
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$30.36	88.01%	104
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$30.36	87.99%	104
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$30.36	87.99%	104
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$30.36	88.02%	104
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$30.36	88.01%	104
3 Nov, 22:52 UTC	$30.36	88.01%	104

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 92.7%restricted 1.0%#8847ff 0.0%covert 1.0%Mil Spec Grade 0.9%mil spec 1.4%#4b69ff 0.3%milspec 0.4%Rare 0.1%#4B69FF 0.1%blue 0.2%Heavy 0.1%Ancient 0.5%Covert 0.2%red 0.2%#d32ee6 0.7%best hit —