Eastern Fury

A case on Hellcase (esports), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$89.00

Advertised RTP

88.03%

EV $78.34 from 115 items

Observed RTP, 30d

73.70%

111 openings, odds method

Variance

5.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 20

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

66 openings · below min

30 days

73.70%±44.20111 openings

since tracking started

73.70%±44.20111 openings

-0.5%172.5%345.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	17.03%±327.9	—	odds
7d	66	89.85%±57.2	—	odds
30d	111	73.70%±44.2	−0.6σ	odds
All	111	73.70%±44.2	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values115 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 111 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 4,167	$3,147	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 2,941	$2,231	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 2,941	$2,208	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,941	$2,188	0.9%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 2,857	$2,151	1.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$2,142	1.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$2,109	1.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,632	$1,980	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,564	$1,943	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$1,913	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$1,871	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,326	$1,728	0.9%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,222	$1,689	1.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,128	$1,618	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,128	$1,611	1.0%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,083	$1,556	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 2,041	$1,549	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,041	$1,518	0.9%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,887	$1,423	1.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,818	$1,371	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,786	$1,341	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 1,754	$1,300	0.9%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,695	$1,268	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,639	$1,236	1.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,639	$1,233	1.0%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$1,083	1.0%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$1,081	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,370	$1,021	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,299	$977	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,250	$942	1.0%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,235	$928	1.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,220	$910	1.0%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,176	$887	1.0%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,075	$802	1.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 990	$744	1.0%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 952	$717	1.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 935	$701	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 926	$700	1.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 885	$661	1.0%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 694	$521	1.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 690	$518	1.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 625	$468	1.0%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 617	$461	1.0%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 613	$461	1.0%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 575	$431	1.0%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 568	$426	1.0%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 526	$396	1.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 518	$389	1.0%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 503	$378	1.0%	1	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · legendary	1 in 493	$370	1.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 478	$358	1.0%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 439	$330	1.0%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 433	$325	1.0%	2	0.3	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 388	$291	1.0%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 379	$284	1.0%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 369	$277	1.0%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 285	$214	1.0%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 272	$205	1.0%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 242	$181	1.0%	1	0.5	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 229	$173	1.0%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 222	$167	1.0%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 189	$142	1.0%	2	0.6	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 185	$139	1.0%	1	0.6	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 173	$130	1.0%	3	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 172	$129	1.0%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 164	$123	1.0%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 147	$110	1.0%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 145	$109	1.0%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 144	$108	1.0%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 142	$106	1.0%	4	0.8	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 128	$96.35	1.0%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 125	$93.56	1.0%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 123	$92.48	1.0%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 122	$91.25	1.0%	3	0.9	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 113	$84.88	1.0%	1	1.0	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 111	$83.51	1.0%	3	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 109	$81.97	1.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$80.75	1.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 107	$80.57	1.0%	2	1.0	1.93×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 106	$79.32	1.0%	1	1.1	0.95×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 147	$76.31	0.7%	1	0.8	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 141	$73.27	0.7%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 133	$69.28	0.7%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 132	$68.80	0.7%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 129	$67.19	0.7%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 128	$66.69	0.7%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 127	$66.14	0.7%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 118	$61.53	0.7%	2	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 117	$60.82	0.7%	1	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 113	$58.72	0.7%	0	1.0	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 113	$58.61	0.7%	0	1.0	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 106	$55.00	0.7%	2	1.1	1.90×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 101	$52.46	0.7%	1	1.1	0.91×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 101	$52.39	0.7%	1	1.1	0.91×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 98	$51.13	0.7%	1	1.1	0.88×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$49.78	0.7%	2	1.2	1.72×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 92	$47.87	0.7%	0	1.2	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 87	$45.07	0.7%	3	1.3	2.34×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 86	$44.93	0.7%	2	1.3	1.55×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 79	$41.25	0.7%	1	1.4	0.71×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 78	$40.54	0.7%	2	1.4	1.40×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 76	$39.64	0.7%	1	1.5	0.69×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 74	$38.70	0.7%	2	1.5	1.34×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 68	$35.17	0.7%	0	1.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 65	$33.77	0.7%	1	1.7	0.58×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 59	$30.74	0.7%	0	1.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 43	$22.44	0.7%	4	2.6	1.55×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 33	$17.23	0.7%	5	3.4	1.49×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$13.09	0.7%	4	4.4	0.91×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 23	$11.74	0.7%	5	4.9	1.02×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 22	$11.26	0.7%	3	5.1	0.58×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 20	$10.21	0.7%	6	5.7	1.06×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 12	$6.03	0.7%	6	9.6	0.63×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 11	$5.88	0.7%	9	9.8	0.92×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 10	$5.26	0.7%	10	11.0	0.91×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/eastern-fury, 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedHERMOSA$89.00$13.090.15x18h

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · LegendaryDT_OINE$89.00$17.230.19x19h

AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertCode: EXT (Free Cases + $$$)$89.00$84.880.95x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classifiedkronyii$89.00$11.720.13x1d

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classifiedkronyii$89.00$6.040.07x1d

AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covertkronyii$89.00$3253.65x1d

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertkronyii$89.00$98.991.11x1d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertkronyii$89.00$96.351.08x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedHERMOSA$89.00$11.720.13x1d

AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covertColaolli$89.00$53.730.60x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$89.00	88.03%	115
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$89.00	88.12%	115
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$89.00	88.02%	115
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$89.00	87.98%	115
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$89.00	88.02%	115
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$89.00	88.03%	115
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$89.00	88.01%	115
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$89.00	88.01%	115
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$89.00	87.98%	115
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$89.00	88.00%	115
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$89.00	88.01%	115

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.3%epic 0.1%covert 33.6%restricted 0.1%covert knife 0.4%classified 12.5%Covert 1.7%rare 0.1%Ancient 2.1%Classified 14.9%red 4.0%pink 2.0%#d32ce6 1.3%Legendary 17.0%#d32ee6 9.9%best hit —