Egghead

A case on Hellcase (chicken-raise), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$14.00

Advertised RTP

88.01%

EV $12.32 from 207 items

Observed RTP, 30d

102.29%

196 openings, odds method

Variance

2.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

103.60%±22.82177 openings

30 days

102.29%±21.70196 openings

since tracking started

102.29%±21.70196 openings

-0.5%75.0%150.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	74.48%±75.5	—	odds
7d	177	103.60%±22.8	+1.3σ	odds
30d	196	102.29%±21.7	+1.3σ	odds
All	196	102.29%±21.7	+1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values207 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 196 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$439	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$375	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$358	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$353	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 9,091	$309	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 9,091	$306	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$293	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$293	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 8,333	$278	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$273	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 6,667	$227	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 6,250	$218	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 6,250	$214	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 5,882	$212	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,882	$202	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$192	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$192	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$191	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$187	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 5,263	$185	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$179	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$173	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 4,762	$171	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 4,762	$168	0.3%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$164	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$158	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 4,167	$149	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 4,348	$149	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 4,167	$147	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,167	$146	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$142	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,167	$142	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$140	0.3%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$139	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,846	$136	0.3%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$135	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$131	0.3%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$131	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$129	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,704	$127	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$124	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$123	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,571	$123	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,571	$122	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$122	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 3,448	$121	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,571	$121	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,448	$121	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,333	$117	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 3,226	$115	0.3%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$114	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,125	$111	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$110	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 3,125	$110	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$107	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$106	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,030	$106	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$104	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,941	$103	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$99.79	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$99.67	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$98.80	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$96.84	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,632	$93.56	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 2,564	$88.72	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$86.98	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,439	$84.88	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,381	$83.76	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,326	$81.65	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,326	$80.86	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,326	$80.74	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,326	$80.19	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,273	$79.76	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,273	$79.26	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,273	$79.20	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,273	$79.14	0.3%	1	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,273	$78.61	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,273	$78.61	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,222	$77.23	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,174	$76.61	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,174	$75.66	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,128	$73.79	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$71.91	0.3%	0	0.1	—
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 2,041	$71.03	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 2,000	$70.81	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$70.77	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$69.28	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$69.15	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,961	$69.12	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$68.80	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,923	$67.25	0.3%	2	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,923	$66.69	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,923	$66.64	0.3%	1	0.1	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,923	$66.43	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,887	$66.14	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,887	$66.01	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,818	$62.89	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,818	$62.56	0.3%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,786	$62.50	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,786	$62.15	0.3%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 1,754	$61.21	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,695	$59.34	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,695	$58.61	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,613	$55.78	0.3%	1	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$55.35	0.3%	1	0.1	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$55.31	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$55.00	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Negev \| Loudmouth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,562	$54.89	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,538	$53.32	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,493	$52.46	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$52.39	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,471	$51.73	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$51.13	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$49.78	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,429	$49.69	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,408	$49.67	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,370	$47.88	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,333	$46.84	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,316	$45.96	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$45.07	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,282	$44.45	0.3%	1	0.2	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$43.89	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$43.64	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$43.48	0.3%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,235	$42.84	0.3%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,220	$42.54	0.3%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,205	$41.82	0.3%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,190	$41.27	0.3%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,163	$40.76	0.3%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,111	$38.77	0.3%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,111	$38.76	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,111	$38.76	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,111	$38.73	0.3%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,099	$38.36	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,053	$36.78	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,042	$36.41	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,031	$35.85	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,020	$35.82	0.3%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,020	$35.73	0.3%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,020	$35.67	0.3%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,020	$35.65	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,031	$35.64	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$34.89	0.3%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 980	$34.31	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 971	$33.78	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 962	$33.51	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 952	$33.00	0.3%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 943	$32.65	0.3%	0	0.2	—
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 926	$32.32	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 926	$32.11	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 877	$30.59	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 862	$30.06	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 855	$29.85	0.3%	2	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 840	$29.12	0.3%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 826	$28.97	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 826	$28.92	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 826	$28.80	0.3%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 820	$28.48	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 813	$28.35	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 769	$26.84	0.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 763	$26.51	0.3%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 735	$25.64	0.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 730	$25.42	0.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 694	$24.25	0.3%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 641	$22.39	0.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 641	$22.38	0.3%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 621	$21.65	0.3%	0	0.3	—
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 613	$21.32	0.3%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 613	$21.29	0.3%	0	0.3	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 606	$21.08	0.3%	1	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 581	$20.23	0.3%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 541	$18.89	0.3%	0	0.4	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 541	$18.87	0.3%	0	0.4	—
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 541	$18.85	0.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 532	$18.49	0.3%	0	0.4	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 481	$16.77	0.3%	0	0.4	—
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 472	$16.43	0.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 461	$16.07	0.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 446	$15.55	0.3%	0	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 427	$14.92	0.3%	2	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 407	$14.17	0.3%	0	0.5	—
Negev \| Loudmouth (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 403	$14.03	0.3%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 400	$13.94	0.3%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 43	$10.63	2.0%	3	4.6	0.66×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 42	$10.38	2.0%	1	4.7	0.21×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$9.97	2.0%	9	4.9	1.85×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$9.68	2.0%	4	5.0	0.80×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$9.23	2.0%	4	5.3	0.76×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 35	$8.58	2.0%	5	5.7	0.88×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$8.20	2.0%	5	5.9	0.84×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 32	$7.94	2.0%	8	6.1	1.31×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 32	$7.90	2.0%	7	6.1	1.14×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 32	$7.88	2.0%	10	6.2	1.62×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 30	$7.38	2.0%	9	6.6	1.37×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 30	$7.31	2.0%	4	6.6	0.60×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$7.25	2.0%	7	6.7	1.05×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 28	$6.81	2.0%	6	7.1	0.84×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 27	$6.69	2.0%	9	7.3	1.24×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$6.65	2.0%	6	7.3	0.82×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$6.07	2.0%	6	8.0	0.75×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$5.83	2.0%	8	8.3	0.96×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$5.46	2.0%	12	8.9	1.35×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 21	$5.18	2.0%	8	9.4	0.85×
AWP \| Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$4.91	2.0%	11	9.9	1.11×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$4.87	2.0%	6	10.0	0.60×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$4.78	2.0%	6	10.1	0.59×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$4.69	2.0%	9	10.3	0.87×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/egghead, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedSnow$14.00$55.783.98x1m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalMalalagueule$14.00$8.580.61x4h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedMalalagueule$14.00$7.880.56x4h

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinklucarapils$14.00$6.810.49x11h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBAD FOX5802$14.00$7.900.56x12h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedJudu Kaip Emigrantas$14.00$7.880.56x16h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalArcziii33$14.00$8.580.61x16h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified♥SCHIZO♥$14.00$7.900.56x17h

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedFranci na balanci$14.00$4.870.35x17h

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalBen Been Crying :($14.00$8.180.58x19h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$14.00	88.01%	207
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$14.00	87.98%	207
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$14.00	87.95%	207
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$14.00	87.98%	207
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$14.00	88.03%	207
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$14.00	88.00%	207
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$14.00	88.01%	207
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$14.00	87.97%	207
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$14.00	87.96%	207
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$14.00	88.00%	207
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$14.00	88.02%	207
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$14.00	88.00%	207

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.8%legendary 0.0%covert knife 0.1%classified 31.6%Immortal 0.0%Classified 0.2%Covert 0.3%epic 0.0%Ancient 0.4%restricted 32.6%gold 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.3%red 0.8%#d32ee6 3.6%rare 0.1%Legendary 5.1%violet 0.4%pink 8.3%Restricted 2.4%Mythical 5.9%#8847ff 4.1%best hit —