Jade Protocol

A case on Hellcase (esports), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$21.00

Advertised RTP

87.97%

EV $18.47 from 130 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.17%

82 openings, odds method

Variance

2.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

7 openings · below min

7 days

67 openings · below min

30 days

82 openings · below min

since tracking started

82 openings · below min

-0.5%104.0%208.5%

Small sample. 82 openings and 7.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7	83.75%±124.0	—	odds
7d	67	80.92%±39.8	—	odds
30d	82	76.17%±36.0	—	odds
All	82	76.17%±36.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values130 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 82 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$938	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$470	0.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$455	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$441	0.6%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$374	0.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$338	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,778	$309	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,632	$289	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$282	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$232	0.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,041	$226	0.6%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$219	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,923	$214	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,923	$212	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,923	$212	0.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,887	$210	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,852	$204	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,724	$193	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$192	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,613	$179	0.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,587	$176	0.6%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$175	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,587	$174	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$167	0.6%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,493	$164	0.6%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$162	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$158	0.6%	1	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$158	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,351	$150	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$143	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$142	0.6%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$139	0.6%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,235	$135	0.6%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$131	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$130	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,163	$129	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,163	$129	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,136	$126	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$124	0.6%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,099	$121	0.6%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 1,087	$121	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,064	$118	0.6%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,042	$116	0.6%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,031	$114	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$110	0.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 990	$109	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 952	$106	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 870	$96.35	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 847	$93.45	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 833	$92.48	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 826	$91.25	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 741	$81.97	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 735	$81.63	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 735	$81.42	0.6%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 735	$81.37	0.6%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 730	$80.66	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 730	$80.61	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 725	$80.60	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 725	$80.57	0.6%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 730	$80.39	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 719	$79.96	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 719	$79.32	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 680	$75.66	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 658	$72.82	0.6%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 654	$72.26	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 633	$70.09	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 625	$69.28	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 621	$68.80	0.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 606	$67.19	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 602	$66.69	0.6%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 599	$66.43	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 599	$66.14	0.6%	1	0.1	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 585	$64.96	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 571	$63.10	0.6%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 559	$61.76	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 559	$61.54	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 556	$61.53	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 549	$60.82	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 529	$58.72	0.6%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 532	$58.61	0.6%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$55.31	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 490	$54.30	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 474	$52.39	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 472	$52.37	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 465	$51.35	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 461	$51.13	0.6%	1	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 455	$50.36	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 450	$49.78	0.6%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 427	$47.29	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 420	$46.45	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 417	$45.96	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 407	$45.02	0.6%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 407	$44.96	0.6%	1	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 397	$44.03	0.6%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 397	$43.89	0.6%	1	0.2	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 388	$42.84	0.6%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 383	$42.54	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 379	$41.80	0.6%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 373	$41.25	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 370	$40.99	0.6%	2	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 362	$40.13	0.6%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 361	$40.03	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 361	$39.87	0.6%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 350	$38.70	0.6%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 350	$38.70	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 345	$38.09	0.6%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 318	$35.17	0.6%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 305	$33.77	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 278	$30.74	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 261	$28.92	0.6%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 243	$26.84	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 240	$26.51	0.6%	1	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 238	$26.26	0.6%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 197	$21.80	0.6%	1	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 192	$21.22	0.6%	0	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 185	$20.48	0.6%	1	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 181	$20.01	0.6%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 172	$19.05	0.6%	1	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 171	$18.98	0.6%	0	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 170	$18.83	0.6%	1	0.5	—
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 170	$18.83	0.6%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 169	$18.72	0.6%	4	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 29	$17.93	3.4%	4	2.8	1.41×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 18	$11.01	3.4%	3	4.6	0.65×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$8.28	3.4%	4	6.2	0.65×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$7.99	3.4%	7	6.4	1.10×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$7.83	3.4%	8	6.5	1.23×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	13.7%	$4.53	3.4%	5	11.3	0.44×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	15.6%	$3.98	3.4%	10	12.8	0.78×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	16.1%	$3.87	3.4%	17	13.2	1.29×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/jade-protocol, 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertjendrula$21.00$40.991.95x16h

AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covertSzczurJWP$21.00$49.782.37x17h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedSzczurJWP$21.00$8.280.39x17h

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkSzczurJWP$21.00$7.830.37x17h

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkSzczurJWP$21.00$3.870.18x17h

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedWemby Fc$21.00$4.530.22x22h

MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covertZEUS$21.00$43.892.09x1d

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkThe Horse$21.00$3.980.19x1d

StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · redBaron Heinz$21.00$26.511.26x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$21.00	87.97%	130
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$21.00	87.98%	130
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$21.00	88.01%	130
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$21.00	87.99%	130
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$21.00	87.97%	130
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$21.00	87.98%	130
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$21.00	87.97%	130
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$21.00	88.03%	130
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$21.00	88.02%	130
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$21.00	88.01%	130
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$21.00	88.01%	130

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.2%classified 42.8%covert knife 0.0%red 2.0%#eb4b4b 0.8%Covert 0.8%Ancient 0.9%pink 41.7%Legendary 0.4%#d32ee6 0.5%best hit —