Oni Taiji

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$88.20

Advertised RTP

86.01%

EV $75.86 from 140 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.14%

87 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

5 openings · below min

7 days

46 openings · below min

30 days

87 openings · below min

since tracking started

87 openings · below min

6.0%95.3%184.5%

Small sample. 87 openings and 18.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5	95.28%±88.7	—	odds
7d	46	84.73%±29.2	—	odds
30d	87	88.14%±22.9	—	odds
All	87	88.14%±22.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values140 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 87 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 7,692	$2,642	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$2,007	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 5,556	$1,852	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$1,804	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 5,263	$1,700	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 5,000	$1,657	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$1,543	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$1,440	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$1,435	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$1,383	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$1,298	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,846	$1,292	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,846	$1,264	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$1,192	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$739	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,128	$723	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,083	$691	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,961	$655	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,887	$639	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,754	$584	0.4%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,538	$519	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$452	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,351	$447	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,266	$422	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,149	$383	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,149	$381	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,099	$366	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,087	$360	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,075	$358	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,053	$351	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,053	$350	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,020	$343	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,010	$337	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 990	$332	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 935	$312	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 909	$301	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 901	$299	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 862	$286	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 855	$286	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 826	$277	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 826	$275	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 826	$273	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 813	$272	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 800	$268	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 800	$268	0.4%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 787	$263	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 758	$253	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 752	$250	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 752	$250	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 746	$249	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 741	$247	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 725	$241	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 699	$233	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 676	$225	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 671	$224	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 671	$224	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 671	$223	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 658	$219	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 629	$211	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 617	$206	0.4%	1	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 606	$202	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 602	$201	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 599	$200	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 543	$181	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 524	$174	0.4%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 510	$170	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 505	$168	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$167	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$167	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$167	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 493	$164	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 493	$164	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 476	$159	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 465	$155	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 455	$152	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 450	$150	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 450	$150	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 444	$148	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 427	$143	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 422	$141	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 415	$138	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 407	$136	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 388	$129	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 360	$120	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 358	$119	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 350	$116	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 348	$116	0.4%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 347	$116	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 341	$114	0.4%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 334	$111	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 332	$111	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 332	$110	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 330	$110	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 326	$109	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 308	$103	0.4%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 299	$99.53	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 292	$97.47	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 270	$90.04	0.4%	1	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 267	$88.91	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 261	$87.06	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 261	$87.02	0.4%	2	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 251	$83.72	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 244	$81.23	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 240	$80.26	0.4%	2	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 240	$80.00	0.4%	1	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 240	$79.82	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 236	$78.60	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 61	$74.67	1.6%	3	1.4	2.11×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 60	$73.38	1.6%	1	1.4	0.69×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 60	$72.93	1.6%	1	1.5	0.69×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 58	$70.05	1.6%	2	1.5	1.32×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 55	$67.61	1.6%	1	1.6	0.64×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 55	$67.19	1.6%	2	1.6	1.27×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 55	$67.17	1.6%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 55	$66.53	1.6%	1	1.6	0.63×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$64.86	1.6%	0	1.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$63.94	1.6%	4	1.7	2.41×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$60.68	1.6%	4	1.7	2.29×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 49	$60.09	1.6%	2	1.8	1.13×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 49	$59.92	1.6%	1	1.8	0.57×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 49	$59.23	1.6%	1	1.8	0.56×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 48	$58.65	1.6%	3	1.8	1.66×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 46	$55.91	1.6%	3	1.9	1.58×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 45	$54.61	1.6%	1	1.9	0.52×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 43	$52.21	1.6%	2	2.0	0.99×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 43	$52.15	1.6%	0	2.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 43	$51.95	1.6%	1	2.0	0.49×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$48.93	1.6%	6	2.2	2.77×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 37	$45.48	1.6%	2	2.3	0.86×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 37	$45.29	1.6%	1	2.3	0.43×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 35	$43.19	1.6%	5	2.5	2.04×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 35	$42.66	1.6%	2	2.5	0.81×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 34	$41.16	1.6%	1	2.6	0.39×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 31	$37.41	1.6%	4	2.8	1.41×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 30	$36.70	1.6%	2	2.9	0.69×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 30	$36.36	1.6%	1	2.9	0.34×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 30	$36.34	1.6%	3	2.9	1.03×
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$30.04	1.6%	3	3.5	0.85×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 24	$29.10	1.6%	1	3.6	0.27×
AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 23	$28.00	1.6%	2	3.8	0.53×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/onitaiji, 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC.