Premium Knives

A case on Hellcase (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$180.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $158.40 from 255 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.11%

48 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

46 openings · below min

30 days

48 openings · below min

since tracking started

48 openings · below min

-0.5%62.5%125.5%

Small sample. 48 openings and 12.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	41.90%±82.8	—	odds
7d	46	80.62%±17.4	—	odds
30d	48	81.11%±17.0	—	odds
All	48	81.11%±17.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values255 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 613	$683	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 562	$623	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 556	$617	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 541	$600	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 521	$577	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 510	$565	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 444	$494	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 442	$493	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 426	$473	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 415	$461	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 413	$459	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 413	$458	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 410	$455	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 402	$445	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 400	$444	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 397	$440	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 394	$437	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 376	$417	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 369	$409	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 366	$407	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 355	$393	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 338	$375	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 333	$370	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 317	$352	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 312	$346	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 311	$344	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 308	$341	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 305	$339	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 295	$327	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 282	$313	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 282	$312	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 275	$306	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 274	$305	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 272	$302	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 272	$301	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 270	$299	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 269	$298	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 264	$293	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 260	$288	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 255	$283	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 254	$282	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 246	$273	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Classic KnifeStatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 242	$269	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 240	$267	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 233	$258	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 231	$257	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 228	$253	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 227	$251	0.7%	3	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 226	$251	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 216	$240	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 215	$238	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 211	$234	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 210	$233	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 205	$228	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 204	$227	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 204	$226	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 203	$225	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Classic Knifeknife · covert	1 in 203	$225	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 200	$222	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 198	$219	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 196	$217	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 193	$214	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 191	$212	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 189	$210	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 189	$210	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 188	$208	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 185	$206	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 181	$201	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 180	$200	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 178	$198	0.7%	2	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 178	$197	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 176	$196	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 176	$195	0.7%	2	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 175	$194	0.7%	2	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 175	$194	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 170	$189	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 169	$188	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 169	$187	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 168	$187	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 167	$185	0.7%	1	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 166	$184	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 165	$183	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 164	$182	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 163	$181	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 161	$178	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 159	$176	0.7%	1	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 158	$175	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 155	$172	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 154	$171	0.7%	1	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 151	$168	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 151	$168	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 150	$167	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 150	$167	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 150	$166	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 149	$166	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 149	$166	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 148	$164	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 148	$164	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 147	$164	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 147	$163	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 147	$163	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 147	$163	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 146	$162	0.7%	1	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 146	$162	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 145	$160	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 144	$160	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 143	$159	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 588	$157	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 581	$156	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 575	$154	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 559	$150	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 552	$148	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 552	$148	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 549	$147	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 543	$145	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 538	$144	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 535	$144	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 535	$143	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 535	$143	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 529	$142	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 526	$141	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 503	$135	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 503	$134	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$134	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 495	$133	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 488	$131	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 485	$130	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 481	$129	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 478	$128	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 476	$128	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 476	$128	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 467	$126	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 465	$125	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 465	$125	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 463	$124	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 459	$123	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 457	$123	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 448	$120	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 448	$120	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 433	$116	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 431	$116	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 418	$112	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 417	$112	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 417	$112	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 417	$111	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 410	$110	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 408	$110	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 407	$109	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 400	$107	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 397	$107	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 397	$106	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 392	$105	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 391	$105	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 389	$104	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 386	$103	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 383	$103	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 377	$101	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 377	$101	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 376	$101	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 376	$101	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 370	$99.38	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 358	$95.86	0.2%	2	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 356	$95.47	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 356	$95.23	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 355	$95.21	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 351	$94.15	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 350	$93.63	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 346	$92.86	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 337	$90.35	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 332	$89.05	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 331	$88.85	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 331	$88.80	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 330	$88.36	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 327	$87.56	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 319	$85.70	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 316	$85.04	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 314	$84.39	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 313	$84.06	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 313	$83.85	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 310	$82.90	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 304	$81.37	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 303	$81.30	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 302	$81.14	0.2%	1	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 301	$80.54	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 299	$80.41	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 299	$80.39	0.2%	1	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 299	$80.33	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 299	$80.19	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 299	$80.12	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 298	$80.01	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 295	$79.12	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 295	$79.07	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 293	$78.50	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 292	$78.35	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 289	$77.57	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 287	$77.06	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 286	$76.77	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 284	$76.26	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 281	$75.29	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 279	$74.53	0.2%	1	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 277	$74.37	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 275	$73.79	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 262	$70.34	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 262	$70.18	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 258	$69.27	0.2%	2	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 257	$68.91	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 256	$68.59	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 254	$68.13	0.2%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 251	$67.20	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 249	$66.75	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 248	$66.55	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 248	$66.35	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 246	$65.93	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 245	$65.63	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 244	$65.51	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 243	$65.19	0.2%	1	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 243	$65.17	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 242	$64.84	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 239	$64.20	0.2%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 236	$63.16	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 232	$62.20	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 230	$61.87	0.2%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 229	$61.41	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 228	$61.10	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 226	$60.49	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 224	$60.04	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 221	$59.12	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 208	$55.72	0.2%	1	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 208	$55.68	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 206	$55.14	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 205	$54.98	0.2%	2	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 201	$53.78	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 197	$52.96	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 191	$51.25	0.2%	1	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 191	$51.16	0.2%	1	0.3	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 190	$51.00	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 187	$50.20	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 187	$50.19	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · Immortal	1 in 186	$49.94	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 185	$49.63	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 185	$49.52	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 185	$49.46	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 183	$49.01	0.2%	1	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 181	$48.61	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 181	$48.53	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 181	$48.47	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 181	$48.43	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 181	$48.38	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 180	$48.28	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 179	$47.99	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 177	$47.57	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 176	$47.23	0.2%	1	0.3	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 175	$46.97	0.2%	1	0.3	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 175	$46.95	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 175	$46.91	0.2%	0	0.3	—

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/premiumknives, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covertbwaaa$180$54.980.31x9h

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeKalam,$180$95.860.53x15h

★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covertCode: EXT (Free Cases + $$$)$180$65.520.36x1d

★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeCode: EXT (Free Cases + $$$)$180$64.200.36x1d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeCode: EXT (Free Cases + $$$)$180$87.560.49x1d

★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · goldCode: EXT (Free Cases + $$$)$180$47.300.26x1d

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife13$180$95.860.53x2d

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert13$180$2671.48x2d

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert13$180$1951.08x2d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife13$180$4072.26x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$180	88.00%	255
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$180	88.00%	255
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$180	88.00%	255
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$180	88.00%	255
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$180	88.00%	255
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$180	88.00%	255
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$180	88.00%	255
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$180	88.00%	255
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$180	88.00%	255
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$180	87.86%	255
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$180	88.00%	255
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$180	88.00%	255

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 35.8%covert knife 48.9%Covert 3.2%gold 6.1%#ffd700 4.1%sunny 1.0%Immortal 0.7%rare 0.2%best hit —