Quarter Billion

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$14.49

Advertised RTP

85.98%

EV $12.46 from 163 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.51%

508 openings, odds method

Variance

5.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 19

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

41 openings · below min

7 days

80.25%±21.52312 openings

30 days

78.51%±18.10508 openings

since tracking started

78.51%±18.10508 openings

-0.5%54.8%110.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	41	51.74%±57.8	—	odds
7d	312	80.25%±21.5	+1.1σ	odds
30d	508	78.51%±18.1	+0.5σ	odds
All	508	78.51%±18.1	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values163 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 509 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,852	0.6%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$1,648	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$712	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$691	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$417	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,556	$378	0.5%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$368	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$350	0.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,167	$288	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 4,000	$284	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$273	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 3,704	$268	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 3,704	$268	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,704	$263	0.6%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$258	0.6%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,571	$253	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,571	$249	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,448	$244	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$243	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,333	$241	0.6%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$219	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$219	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,941	$211	0.6%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Road Rash (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,941	$208	0.6%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,941	$207	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$205	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$201	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,778	$200	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,778	$195	0.6%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,703	$192	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,703	$191	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,564	$183	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,500	$174	0.6%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,439	$173	0.6%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,381	$169	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,381	$167	0.6%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,381	$166	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,273	$159	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,174	$155	0.6%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 2,222	$155	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,174	$152	0.6%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,128	$151	0.6%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,128	$150	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,961	$141	0.6%	0	0.3	—
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 1,961	$140	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$140	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,961	$138	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,852	$129	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,786	$126	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,754	$124	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,667	$119	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$117	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,562	$112	0.6%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,562	$111	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,562	$110	0.6%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$103	0.6%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,408	$100	0.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,316	$92.79	0.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,266	$90.18	0.6%	3	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,235	$87.06	0.6%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,220	$86.31	0.6%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,149	$80.76	0.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,149	$80.60	0.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,136	$80.54	0.6%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,124	$79.92	0.6%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,124	$79.20	0.6%	1	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,124	$79.18	0.6%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,087	$77.04	0.6%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,087	$76.66	0.6%	1	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,087	$76.48	0.6%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,075	$75.61	0.6%	0	0.5	—
SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,020	$71.65	0.6%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,010	$71.35	0.6%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,010	$71.08	0.6%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 980	$69.54	0.6%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 971	$69.12	0.6%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 962	$68.27	0.6%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 943	$66.64	0.6%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 943	$66.64	0.6%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 917	$64.92	0.6%	0	0.6	—
USP-S \| Road Rash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 909	$64.46	0.6%	2	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 893	$63.11	0.6%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 885	$62.61	0.6%	0	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 870	$61.25	0.6%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 840	$59.54	0.6%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 833	$59.06	0.6%	1	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 781	$54.88	0.6%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 752	$53.41	0.6%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 746	$52.70	0.6%	1	0.7	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 741	$52.26	0.6%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 730	$51.46	0.6%	0	0.7	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 709	$50.29	0.6%	0	0.7	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 709	$50.28	0.6%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 658	$46.61	0.6%	2	0.8	—
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 649	$45.89	0.6%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 641	$45.53	0.6%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 625	$44.22	0.6%	3	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 610	$42.93	0.6%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 568	$40.26	0.6%	1	0.9	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 549	$38.73	0.6%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 532	$37.65	0.6%	4	1.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 529	$37.52	0.6%	1	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 529	$37.30	0.6%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 524	$37.11	0.6%	0	1.0	—
USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 524	$36.98	0.6%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 513	$36.21	0.6%	0	1.0	—
USP-S \| Road Rash (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 505	$35.69	0.6%	3	1.0	2.98×
USP-S \| Road Rash (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 503	$35.59	0.6%	1	1.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 495	$34.98	0.6%	1	1.0	0.97×
P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 488	$34.57	0.6%	3	1.0	2.88×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 476	$33.81	0.6%	2	1.1	1.87×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 469	$33.22	0.6%	1	1.1	0.92×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 469	$33.17	0.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 459	$32.41	0.6%	1	1.1	0.90×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 457	$32.23	0.6%	2	1.1	1.79×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 452	$32.04	0.6%	1	1.1	0.89×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 446	$31.52	0.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 439	$31.06	0.6%	1	1.2	0.86×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 420	$29.69	0.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 417	$29.49	0.6%	3	1.2	2.46×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 413	$29.18	0.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 412	$29.04	0.6%	3	1.2	2.43×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 403	$28.55	0.6%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 398	$28.16	0.6%	3	1.3	2.35×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 392	$27.73	0.6%	0	1.3	0.00×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 389	$27.55	0.6%	3	1.3	2.29×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 389	$27.50	0.6%	1	1.3	0.76×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 379	$26.81	0.6%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 365	$25.86	0.6%	3	1.4	2.15×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 365	$25.74	0.6%	1	1.4	0.72×
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 364	$25.74	0.6%	1	1.4	0.71×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 355	$25.00	0.6%	4	1.4	2.79×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 346	$24.46	0.6%	1	1.5	0.68×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 345	$24.34	0.6%	2	1.5	1.35×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 340	$24.11	0.6%	1	1.5	0.67×
AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 339	$23.97	0.6%	1	1.5	0.67×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 323	$22.77	0.6%	2	1.6	1.27×
P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 305	$21.54	0.6%	3	1.7	1.80×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 300	$21.26	0.6%	1	1.7	0.59×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 296	$20.97	0.6%	1	1.7	0.58×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 282	$19.87	0.6%	2	1.8	1.11×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 275	$19.41	0.6%	6	1.9	3.24×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 270	$19.10	0.6%	5	1.9	2.65×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 261	$18.50	0.6%	0	1.9	0.00×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 253	$17.88	0.6%	2	2.0	0.99×
P250 \| Mehndi (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 252	$17.81	0.6%	6	2.0	2.97×
P250 \| Mehndi (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 249	$17.55	0.6%	2	2.0	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 239	$16.84	0.6%	2	2.1	0.94×
P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 238	$16.81	0.6%	2	2.1	0.93×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 227	$16.04	0.6%	5	2.2	2.23×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 223	$15.74	0.6%	4	2.3	1.75×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 220	$15.57	0.6%	3	2.3	1.30×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 197	$13.91	0.6%	4	2.6	1.55×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 69	$11.41	1.3%	8	7.3	1.09×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 55	$9.03	1.3%	9	9.3	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 51	$8.45	1.3%	8	9.9	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$8.23	1.3%	13	10.2	1.28×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 26	$4.24	1.3%	16	19.7	0.81×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 24	$3.98	1.3%	25	21.0	1.19×
P2000 \| Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$2.11	1.3%	33	39.7	0.83×
P2000 \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	13.8%	$1.19	1.3%	64	70.3	0.91×
P2000 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	17.5%	$0.94	1.3%	85	89.0	0.95×
P2000 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	23.5%	$0.70	1.3%	112	119.5	0.94×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/quarter-billion, 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

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SG 553 | Integrale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6$17.25$4.140.24x2h

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$17.25$8.450.49x2h

P2000 | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · restrictedZoZ1k$17.25$2.090.12x2h

P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalZoZ1k$17.25$0.680.04x2h

P2000 | Amber Fade (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$17.25$1.000.06x3h

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$17.25$51.462.98x3h

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedButt_Fcker_5000$17.25$8.180.47x5h

SG 553 | Integrale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6bongomurzynkongo$95.00$4.140.04x8h

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkcmy$17.25$8.450.49x8h

P2000 | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalcmy$17.25$0.680.04x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$14.49	85.98%	163
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$14.49	86.02%	163

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.7%classified 15.4%restricted 26.6%covert knife 0.2%red 0.1%Ancient 0.3%Covert 0.3%Classified 0.7%violet 0.5%Legendary 0.2%#d32ee6 4.9%#eb4b4b 0.2%pink 6.5%#d32ce6 0.3%#8847ff 17.5%Mythical 23.5%best hit —