Skirmish

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$6.34

Advertised RTP

87.98%

EV $5.58 from 115 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.13%

9,483 openings, odds method

Variance

5.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

103.79%±19.04610 openings

7 days

91.82%±4.929,032 openings

30 days

91.13%±4.799,483 openings

since tracking started

91.13%±4.799,483 openings

84.0%103.8%123.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	610	103.79%±19.0	+1.8σ	odds
7d	9,032	91.82%±4.92	+1.6σ	odds
30d	9,483	91.13%±4.79	+1.3σ	odds
All	9,483	91.13%±4.79	+1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values115 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,738 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$360	0.5%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$352	0.5%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$297	0.5%	1	1.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$276	0.5%	2	1.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 9,091	$260	0.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$252	0.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,091	$251	0.5%	1	1.1	0.93×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$242	0.5%	2	1.2	1.71×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 8,333	$234	0.5%	2	1.2	1.71×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$228	0.5%	1	1.2	0.86×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$221	0.5%	1	1.3	0.79×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$196	0.5%	2	1.4	1.47×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$193	0.5%	0	1.5	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$175	0.5%	2	1.7	1.21×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 6,250	$174	0.5%	1	1.6	0.64×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$171	0.5%	2	1.7	1.21×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$168	0.5%	3	1.7	1.81×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$167	0.5%	2	1.7	1.21×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$164	0.5%	3	1.8	1.71×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$158	0.5%	1	1.8	0.57×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$155	0.5%	1	1.9	0.54×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$143	0.5%	2	1.9	1.03×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$143	0.5%	1	1.9	0.51×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$139	0.5%	4	2.0	1.96×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$129	0.5%	4	2.1	1.87×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$126	0.5%	3	2.2	1.34×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$125	0.5%	4	2.2	1.79×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$123	0.5%	6	2.3	2.57×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$122	0.5%	0	2.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$121	0.5%	1	2.2	0.45×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$121	0.5%	4	2.3	1.71×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$118	0.5%	2	2.4	0.82×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$116	0.5%	2	2.3	0.86×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$114	0.5%	0	2.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$113	0.5%	3	2.5	1.18×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,571	$100	0.5%	5	2.7	1.83×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,448	$97.94	0.5%	2	2.8	0.71×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 3,333	$95.87	0.5%	1	2.9	0.34×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$94.23	0.5%	2	2.9	0.68×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,226	$93.87	0.5%	4	3.0	1.33×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,226	$93.24	0.5%	6	3.0	1.99×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,226	$92.79	0.5%	3	3.0	0.99×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,857	$82.26	0.5%	2	3.4	0.59×
★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 2,857	$81.13	0.5%	2	3.4	0.59×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$80.54	0.5%	2	3.5	0.57×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,439	$71.42	0.5%	2	4.0	0.50×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,439	$69.49	0.5%	3	4.0	0.75×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,381	$67.65	0.5%	4	4.1	0.98×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,273	$65.51	0.5%	5	4.3	1.17×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,174	$61.33	0.5%	3	4.5	0.67×
★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,083	$60.04	0.5%	4	4.7	0.86×
★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 2,041	$59.13	0.5%	4	4.8	0.84×
★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 2,083	$59.00	0.5%	4	4.7	0.86×
★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 2,041	$58.68	0.5%	9	4.8	1.89×
★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,923	$55.64	0.5%	7	5.1	1.38×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,887	$54.13	0.5%	8	5.2	1.55×
MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,818	$52.21	0.5%	5	5.4	0.93×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,786	$51.00	0.5%	6	5.5	1.10×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,724	$49.13	0.5%	5	5.6	0.89×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 1,695	$48.38	0.5%	4	5.7	0.70×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,667	$47.97	0.5%	6	5.8	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,639	$46.93	0.5%	8	5.9	1.35×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$35.78	0.5%	8	7.8	1.03×
P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,220	$35.06	0.5%	6	8.0	0.75×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,176	$33.45	0.5%	5	8.3	0.60×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Curse (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,149	$32.93	0.5%	8	8.5	0.94×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,087	$31.33	0.5%	8	9.0	0.89×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,064	$30.61	0.5%	13	9.2	1.42×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,042	$30.05	0.5%	10	9.3	1.07×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,042	$29.86	0.5%	6	9.3	0.64×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Curse (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,042	$29.67	0.5%	4	9.3	0.43×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,031	$29.44	0.5%	10	9.4	1.06×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 980	$28.11	0.5%	8	9.9	0.81×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 962	$27.55	0.5%	8	10.1	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 826	$23.60	0.5%	18	11.8	1.53×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 676	$19.41	0.5%	15	14.4	1.04×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Curse (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 637	$18.23	0.5%	15	15.3	0.98×
MAC-10 \| Curse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 599	$17.16	0.5%	22	16.3	1.35×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 592	$17.00	0.5%	13	16.5	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 549	$15.80	0.5%	12	17.7	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 549	$15.74	0.5%	19	17.7	1.07×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 524	$14.95	0.5%	25	18.6	1.34×
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 513	$14.72	0.5%	21	19.0	1.11×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 513	$14.69	0.5%	15	19.0	0.79×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 513	$14.66	0.5%	15	19.0	0.79×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 498	$14.21	0.5%	17	19.6	0.87×
P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 490	$14.07	0.5%	23	19.9	1.16×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 490	$14.02	0.5%	22	19.9	1.11×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 490	$14.02	0.5%	22	19.9	1.11×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 488	$13.97	0.5%	25	20.0	1.25×
MAC-10 \| Curse (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 476	$13.62	0.5%	16	20.4	0.78×
P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 476	$13.60	0.5%	19	20.4	0.93×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 467	$13.38	0.5%	18	20.8	0.86×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 427	$12.28	0.5%	14	22.8	0.61×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Curse (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 426	$12.16	0.5%	25	22.9	1.09×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Curse (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · SMGs	1 in 407	$11.66	0.5%	23	24.0	0.96×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 402	$11.49	0.5%	20	24.2	0.82×
MAC-10 \| Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 392	$11.23	0.5%	33	24.8	1.33×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 368	$10.55	0.5%	16	26.5	0.60×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 365	$10.45	0.5%	30	26.7	1.12×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 351	$10.05	0.5%	32	27.8	1.15×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Marina (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 316	$9.05	0.5%	21	30.8	0.68×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 291	$8.33	0.5%	22	33.5	0.66×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 261	$7.48	0.5%	39	37.3	1.05×
MAC-10 \| Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 260	$7.44	0.5%	37	37.5	0.99×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 259	$7.42	0.5%	31	37.6	0.82×
MAC-10 \| Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 244	$7.00	0.5%	38	39.9	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 236	$6.77	0.5%	33	41.2	0.80×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 221	$6.34	0.5%	45	44.0	1.02×
MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 211	$6.04	0.5%	46	46.2	1.00×
MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 204	$5.84	0.5%	449	47.7	9.41×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	11.3%	$5.30	10.8%	1,043	1102.2	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	23.8%	$2.52	10.8%	2,198	2318.2	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	24.8%	$2.42	10.8%	2,316	2414.1	0.96×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	27.5%	$2.18	10.8%	2,601	2679.9	0.97×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/skirmish, 10 Nov, 15:35 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covertツnYx666ツ$6.34$36056.85x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedonemilly1$7.20$5.300.74x1h

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted-_Nash$7.20$2.180.30x6h

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert100a$7.20$29741.30x14h

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted100a$7.20$2.420.34x14h

Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted100a$7.20$5.300.74x14h

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted100a$7.20$2.180.30x15h

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted100a$7.20$2.420.34x15h

M4A1-S | Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink100a$7.20$15.742.19x15h

Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted100a$7.20$5.300.74x15h

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted100a$7.20$2.180.30x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$6.34	87.98%	115
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$6.34	88.00%	115
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$6.34	88.00%	115
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$6.34	88.05%	115
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$6.34	88.01%	115
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$6.34	88.03%	115
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$6.34	87.99%	115
3 Nov, 22:52 UTC	$6.34	88.10%	115

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%covert knife 0.3%#eb4b4b 0.0%Legendary 0.5%classified 4.8%Covert 0.0%restricted 67.2%Immortal 0.0%gold 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%Restricted 0.6%Classified 0.1%#d32ce6 0.1%pink 0.6%SMGs 0.2%#8847ff 24.4%best hit $360 (56.85x)