Smak

A case on Hellcase (poland-cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price
$6.50
Advertised RTP
87.94%
EV $5.72 from 177 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
6.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d0———
30d0———
All0———
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values177 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | LongDog (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 25,000$4630.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 16,667$4140.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 16,667$3620.4%00.0—
★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 14,286$3150.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 12,500$2930.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 14,286$2920.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 12,500$2890.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 12,500$2780.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 12,500$2750.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 11,111$2590.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 11,111$2460.4%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 11,111$2450.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · epic1 in 10,000$2370.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 11,111$2350.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 10,000$2290.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 11,111$2290.4%00.0—
★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 9,091$2230.4%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 10,000$2220.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Bright Water (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 9,091$2180.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 9,091$2150.4%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$2120.4%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 9,091$2080.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 8,333$1990.4%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 8,333$1930.4%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 8,333$1930.4%00.0—
AWP | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · Ancient1 in 8,333$1920.4%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 8,333$1840.4%00.0—
★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 7,692$1810.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 7,692$1750.4%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 7,692$1710.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic1 in 7,143$1690.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 7,692$1660.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 7,143$1650.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 7,143$1640.4%00.0—
AWP | LongDog (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare1 in 7,143$1610.4%00.0—
★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 7,143$1560.4%00.0—
★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 7,143$1540.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,667$1520.4%00.0—
★ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 6,250$1420.4%00.0—
USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient1 in 5,556$1270.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 5,263$1220.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Inheritance (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1190.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1180.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,263$1150.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 5,000$1100.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare1 in 5,000$1090.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 4,762$1080.4%00.0—
★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 4,762$1080.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 4,762$1060.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 4,545$1030.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 4,348$97.500.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare1 in 4,348$95.380.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 4,000$90.170.4%00.0—
★ Survival Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 4,000$88.440.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 3,846$86.950.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 3,846$86.540.4%00.0—
★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 3,704$83.940.4%00.0—
AWP | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 3,704$83.940.4%00.0—
★ Survival Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal1 in 3,571$81.280.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 3,571$79.960.4%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 3,448$78.460.4%00.0—
★ Survival Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 3,448$76.960.4%00.0—
★ Survival Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife1 in 3,333$74.870.4%00.0—
★ Survival Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 3,226$72.870.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 3,125$70.810.4%00.0—
AWP | LongDog (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 2,941$66.530.4%00.0—
USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,941$66.280.4%00.0—
AWP | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 2,857$64.550.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,857$63.780.4%00.0—
FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,857$63.640.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 2,778$63.110.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,778$62.640.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 2,703$62.490.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 2,778$61.890.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 2,703$61.540.4%00.0—
M4A4 | 龍王 (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 2,632$60.680.4%00.0—
AWP | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 2,632$58.550.4%00.0—
AWP | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 2,439$55.520.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,326$53.320.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,222$49.360.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare1 in 2,041$46.370.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,000$45.230.4%00.0—
FAMAS | Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$44.880.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 2,000$44.870.4%00.0—
FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,961$44.630.4%00.0—
FAMAS | Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$44.510.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 1,923$44.050.4%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 1,923$43.090.4%00.0—
AWP | LongDog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient1 in 1,887$42.840.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,887$42.830.4%00.0—
USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 1,852$41.430.4%00.0—
AWP | LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 1,818$41.300.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,818$40.990.4%00.0—
FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,754$40.130.4%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 1,724$39.450.4%00.0—
USP-S | The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 1,695$38.730.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 1,695$38.230.4%00.0—
USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,562$35.500.4%00.0—
P250 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 1,562$35.060.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,351$30.720.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,299$29.220.4%00.0—
M4A4 | 龍王 (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 1,299$29.140.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,266$28.780.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,149$26.100.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 1,124$25.330.4%00.0—
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 1,099$24.990.4%00.0—
M4A4 | 龍王 (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 943$21.380.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 935$21.200.4%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 935$21.070.4%00.0—
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 926$20.920.4%00.0—
P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 806$18.170.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 794$17.940.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 752$17.000.4%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 746$16.790.4%00.0—
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 719$16.280.4%00.0—
M4A4 | 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 719$16.230.4%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 709$16.070.4%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 671$15.180.4%00.0—
M4A4 | 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 667$15.080.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 662$14.970.4%00.0—
P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 662$14.950.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 658$14.830.4%00.0—
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 654$14.820.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 649$14.660.4%00.0—
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 641$14.470.4%00.0—
P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 625$14.150.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 617$13.970.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 610$13.750.4%00.0—
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 606$13.650.4%00.0—
P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 602$13.600.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 575$13.000.4%00.0—
Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 500$11.300.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 495$11.160.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 452$10.190.4%00.0—
AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 450$10.170.4%00.0—
P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 444$10.040.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 402$9.070.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 333$7.520.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 328$7.410.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 327$7.380.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 324$7.310.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ P2000 | Obsidian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 315$7.130.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 299$6.750.4%00.0—
AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 261$5.910.4%00.0—
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 258$5.820.4%00.0—
P2000 | Obsidian (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 70$5.321.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 67$5.121.3%00.0—
Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 66$5.031.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 61$4.681.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 57$4.391.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ MP9 | Goo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 56$4.251.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 53$4.081.3%00.0—
MP9 | Goo (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 47$3.581.3%00.0—
AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 46$3.521.3%00.0—
AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 45$3.431.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 45$3.421.3%00.0—
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 44$3.371.3%00.0—
P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 44$3.361.3%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 43$3.291.3%00.0—
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 43$3.281.3%00.0—
AWP | Exothermic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 41$3.171.3%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 41$3.111.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 39$3.001.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 38$2.891.3%00.0—
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 37$2.841.3%00.0—
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 33$2.551.3%00.0—
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 33$2.521.3%00.0—
Tec-9 | Avalanche (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 33$2.501.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 31$2.361.3%00.0—
P2000 | Obsidian (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 30$2.291.3%00.0—
P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 24$1.871.3%00.0—
P2000 | Obsidian (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 24$1.851.3%00.0—
Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 24$1.801.3%00.0—
P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 22$1.711.3%00.0—
Tec-9 | Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 21$1.631.3%00.0—
R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 21$1.601.3%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 20$1.521.3%00.0—
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/smak, 10 Nov, 02:23 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC$6.5087.94%177
8 Nov, 19:58 UTC$6.5087.97%177
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC$6.5088.02%177
6 Nov, 05:20 UTC$6.5088.05%177
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC$6.5088.01%177
3 Nov, 10:07 UTC$6.5088.02%177
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC$6.5088.02%177
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.5%covert 1.1%legendary 0.0%covert knife 0.2%epic 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.1%sunny 0.0%gold 0.0%Ancient 0.1%rare 0.2%classified 15.1%Legendary 0.4%Immortal 0.0%pink 11.8%restricted 44.9%#d32ee6 2.4%#8847ff 11.8%Mythical 11.0%violet 0.2%