The Dead Are Typing

A case on Hellcase (halloween), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$33.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $29.04 from 116 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.23%

24 openings, odds method

Variance

2.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

15 openings · below min

30 days

24 openings · below min

since tracking started

24 openings · below min

-0.5%65.8%132.0%

Small sample. 24 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	15	45.63%±75.9	—	odds
30d	24	71.23%±60.1	—	odds
All	24	71.23%±60.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values116 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$808	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,632	$530	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,381	$499	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,222	$465	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,128	$441	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,174	$439	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,923	$390	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,887	$387	0.7%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,818	$375	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,786	$367	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$343	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,515	$312	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 1,471	$303	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,408	$289	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,176	$239	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,031	$211	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 990	$204	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 962	$197	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 935	$193	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 935	$192	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 909	$187	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 870	$179	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 870	$179	0.7%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 847	$175	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 847	$174	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 826	$170	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 806	$165	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 800	$164	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 794	$164	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 787	$162	0.7%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 787	$161	0.7%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 781	$161	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 769	$158	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 763	$157	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 741	$153	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 725	$150	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 725	$149	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 719	$147	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 699	$143	0.7%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 676	$139	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 625	$128	0.7%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 599	$123	0.7%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 595	$122	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 595	$122	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 571	$117	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 565	$117	0.7%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 568	$117	0.7%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 546	$112	0.7%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 526	$108	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 524	$107	0.7%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 483	$99.58	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 478	$98.11	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 476	$97.38	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 459	$94.23	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 457	$93.64	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 448	$91.71	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 431	$88.77	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 422	$86.53	0.7%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 408	$83.90	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 408	$83.71	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 405	$83.43	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 403	$82.82	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 400	$82.04	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 400	$81.98	0.7%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 398	$81.75	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 392	$80.71	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 391	$80.48	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 389	$79.77	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 386	$79.53	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 386	$79.12	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 383	$78.88	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 383	$78.74	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 383	$78.55	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 382	$78.31	0.7%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 377	$77.48	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 362	$74.58	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 364	$74.54	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 358	$73.72	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 358	$73.64	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 356	$73.02	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 355	$72.59	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 352	$72.31	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 352	$72.29	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 352	$72.24	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 350	$71.93	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 339	$69.45	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 334	$68.74	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 329	$67.54	0.7%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 306	$62.91	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 287	$58.80	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 272	$55.81	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 262	$53.72	0.7%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 256	$52.66	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 248	$50.96	0.7%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 244	$50.09	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 242	$49.69	0.7%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 229	$47.00	0.7%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 224	$46.01	0.7%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 221	$45.25	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 220	$45.21	0.7%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 205	$42.04	0.7%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 195	$40.03	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 176	$36.08	0.7%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 44	$26.56	2.1%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 42	$25.56	2.1%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 29	$17.39	2.1%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 27	$16.25	2.1%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 24	$14.43	2.1%	3	1.0	2.97×
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 23	$13.87	2.1%	1	1.0	0.95×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 19	$11.49	2.1%	2	1.3	1.58×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 18	$11.07	2.1%	2	1.3	1.52×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$8.10	2.1%	3	1.8	1.67×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$7.56	2.1%	2	1.9	1.04×
MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	10.0%	$6.04	2.1%	2	2.4	0.83×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	10.4%	$5.86	2.1%	0	2.5	0.00×
MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	11.0%	$5.50	2.1%	3	2.6	1.13×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/the-dead-are-typing, 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedEinsDaemon37$33.00$6.040.18x5d

StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedpisika$33.00$14.430.44x5d

MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedpisika$33.00$13.870.42x5d

MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedpisika$33.00$8.100.25x5d

MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedRendroy$33.00$5.500.17x5d

StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedRendroy$33.00$14.430.44x5d

MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedapaciiiiiii$33.00$8.100.25x5d

M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · redDaanY$33.00$80.722.45x5d

StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedoiuy$33.00$14.430.44x6d

MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedMon_LeO$33.00$8.100.25x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$33.00	88.00%	116
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$33.00	87.98%	116
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$33.00	88.01%	116
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$33.00	88.03%	116
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$33.00	88.02%	116
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$33.00	87.99%	116

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 15.9%covert knife 0.1%Ancient 0.7%Covert 0.4%sunny 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.6%Classified 3.9%red 1.1%classified 65.1%pink 11.0%#d32ce6 0.5%Legendary 0.6%best hit —