Doppler Hunter

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Covert Hunters), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$115.00

115 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

87.46%

EV $100.58 from 103 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.17%

5,584 openings, odds method

Variance

0.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

39.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.51%±4.54589 openings

7 days

86.75%±1.604,745 openings

30 days

87.17%±1.485,584 openings

since tracking started

87.17%±1.485,584 openings

84.5%89.5%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	589	89.51%±4.54	+0.9σ	odds
7d	4,745	86.75%±1.60	−0.9σ	odds
30d	5,584	87.17%±1.48	−0.4σ	odds
All	5,584	87.17%±1.48	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values103 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,610 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$608 608 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	5	5.6	0.89×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$490 490 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	3	5.6	0.53×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$431 431 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	6	5.6	1.07×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$420 420 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	6	5.6	1.07×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$418 418 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	4	5.6	0.71×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$302 302 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	4	5.6	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$278 278 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	12	11.2	1.07×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$275 275 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	16	11.2	1.43×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$259 259 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	10	11.2	0.89×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 333	$254 254 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	13	16.8	0.77×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$229 229 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	17	16.8	1.01×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 333	$225 225 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	20	16.8	1.19×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 250	$210 210 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	21	22.4	0.94×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 111	$206 206 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	41	50.5	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$166 166 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	50	50.5	0.99×
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$159 159 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	42	50.5	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$154 154 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	50	50.5	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$153 153 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	42	50.5	0.83×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$153 153 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	42	50.5	0.83×
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$152 152 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	53	50.5	1.05×
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$152 152 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	50	50.5	0.99×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$152 152 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	48	50.5	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$152 152 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	54	50.5	1.07×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$149 149 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	77	50.5	1.53×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$147 147 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	46	50.5	0.91×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$147 147 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	52	50.5	1.03×
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$147 147 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	68	50.5	1.35×
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$145 145 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	46	50.5	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$144 144 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	59	50.5	1.17×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$144 144 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	58	50.5	1.15×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 111	$142 142 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	52	50.5	1.03×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$142 142 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	52	50.5	1.03×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 111	$140 140 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	59	50.5	1.17×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$140 140 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	55	50.5	1.09×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$137 137 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	52	50.5	1.03×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$137 137 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	57	50.5	1.13×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$136 136 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	40	50.5	0.79×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$135 135 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	47	50.5	0.93×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$135 135 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	66	50.5	1.31×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$134 134 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	53	50.5	1.05×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$134 134 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	48	50.5	0.95×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$134 134 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	41	50.5	0.81×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 111	$133 133 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	45	50.5	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 111	$133 133 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	49	50.5	0.97×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 111	$132 132 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	44	50.5	0.87×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$132 132 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	38	50.5	0.75×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 111	$131 131 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	35	50.5	0.69×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$131 131 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	48	50.5	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 111	$130 130 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	61	50.5	1.21×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$129 129 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	57	50.5	1.13×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$129 129 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	41	50.5	0.81×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 111	$129 129 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	57	50.5	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 111	$128 128 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	52	50.5	1.03×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$128 128 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	47	50.5	0.93×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 111	$128 128 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	45	50.5	0.89×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$127 127 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	39	50.5	0.77×
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$126 126 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	59	50.5	1.17×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$126 126 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	52	50.5	1.03×
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$126 126 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	58	50.5	1.15×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 111	$126 126 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	43	50.5	0.85×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$126 126 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	45	50.5	0.89×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$126 126 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	48	50.5	0.95×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 111	$125 125 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	55	50.5	1.09×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 111	$125 125 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	56	50.5	1.11×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$124 124 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	43	50.5	0.85×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$122 122 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	53	50.5	1.05×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 111	$121 121 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	50	50.5	0.99×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$121 121 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	57	50.5	1.13×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$121 121 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	41	50.5	0.81×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$120 120 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	51	50.5	1.01×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$120 120 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	58	50.5	1.15×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$119 119 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	52	50.5	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 111	$118 118 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	50	50.5	0.99×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$118 118 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	53	50.5	1.05×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$118 118 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	57	50.5	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$117 117 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	41	50.5	0.81×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$117 117 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	49	50.5	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$116 116 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	45	50.5	0.89×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$114 114 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	45	50.5	0.89×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 111	$114 114 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	63	50.5	1.25×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 111	$113 113 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	58	50.5	1.15×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 111	$112 112 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	59	50.5	1.17×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$111 111 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	48	50.5	0.95×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 111	$110 110 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	60	50.5	1.19×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$109 109 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	45	50.5	0.89×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$108 108 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	47	50.5	0.93×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 111	$107 107 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	48	50.5	0.95×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 111	$107 107 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	46	50.5	0.91×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$18.16 18.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	114	112.2	1.02×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$17.85 17.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	95	112.2	0.85×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$15.81 15.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	109	112.2	0.97×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$15.66 15.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	115	112.2	1.02×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$15.38 15.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	123	112.2	1.10×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$15.10 15.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	111	112.2	0.99×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$14.48 14.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	106	112.2	0.94×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$14.28 14.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	107	112.2	0.95×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$14.26 14.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	104	112.2	0.93×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$14.23 14.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	126	112.2	1.12×
MP9 \| Airlock (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$13.98 13.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	99	112.2	0.88×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$13.51 13.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	120	112.2	1.07×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$13.46 13.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	122	112.2	1.09×
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 50	$13.27 13.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	111	112.2	0.99×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$13.26 13.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	118	112.2	1.05×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertBOCEY$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT$608608 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.29x2d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertde_clutch2$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT$608608 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.29x2d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertcmr$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT$608608 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.29x3d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertHornét$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT$608608 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.29x3d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertfodY$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT$608608 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.29x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Roll Cage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red✪ 4CUS$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT$107107 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.93x4m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertSarahPalin$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT$135135 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.17x4m

AUG | Syd Mead (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkSarahPalin$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT$14.2614.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.12x4m

Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested)weapon · covertrerecampos$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT$229229 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.00x7m

M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertrerecampos$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT$154154 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.34x7m

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertKRICO$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT$129129 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.12x18m

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covertFluffen$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT$153153 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.33x29m

StatTrak™ AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertSerial$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT$135135 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.18x39m

M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · AncientCocoaboaro$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT$130130 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.13x47m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertSammy39$115115 HOTPIZZA_POINT$117117 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.02x50m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.46%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$115	87.46%	103

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 51.1%Covert 7.2%red 8.1%Ancient 0.9%#eb4b4b 2.7%classified 22.0%pink 6.0%#d32ee6 2.0%best hit $608 (5.29x)