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Fade Hunter

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Covert Hunters), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$85.00
85 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $74.27 from 98 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.38%
6,158 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
87.96%±4.65712 openings
7 days
86.77%±1.745,077 openings
30 days
87.38%±1.586,158 openings
since tracking started
87.38%±1.586,158 openings
82.5%88.0%93.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h71287.96%±4.65+0.2σodds
7d5,07786.77%±1.74−0.7σodds
30d6,15887.38%±1.58+0.0σodds
All6,15887.38%±1.58+0.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values98 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,175 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,000$472 472 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%136.22.11×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,000$402 402 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%56.20.81×
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$384 384 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%96.21.46×
StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,000$378 378 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%36.20.49×
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 1,000$337 337 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%56.20.81×
P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$304 304 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%56.20.81×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$291 291 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%76.21.13×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$289 289 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%56.20.81×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,000$273 273 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%86.21.30×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,000$272 272 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%46.20.65×
AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$245 245 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.3%46.20.65×
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 500$245 245 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%912.30.73×
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 500$243 243 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%1512.31.21×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 500$234 234 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%1212.30.97×
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 333$228 228 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%2418.51.30×
P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 333$227 227 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%1918.51.03×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 333$225 225 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%2618.51.40×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 333$218 218 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%1818.50.97×
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 333$215 215 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%1918.51.03×
P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 250$213 213 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%1924.70.77×
P90 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 250$212 212 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%2624.71.05×
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 250$203 203 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%2024.70.81×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 250$200 200 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%2924.71.17×
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 250$197 197 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%2324.70.93×
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 250$197 197 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%2724.71.09×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 250$195 195 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%2724.71.09×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 250$193 193 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%2124.70.85×
P90 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 200$180 180 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%3030.90.97×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 200$179 179 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%2630.90.84×
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 200$177 177 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%3430.91.10×
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 200$177 177 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%2430.90.78×
StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient1 in 200$176 176 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%2730.90.87×
R8 Revolver | Fade (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 167$161 161 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%4637.01.24×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 200$141 141 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%3430.91.10×
R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 200$140 140 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%2730.90.87×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 200$138 138 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%2630.90.84×
StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 167$111 111 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%3837.01.03×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 167$111 111 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%3637.00.97×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 167$110 110 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%2537.00.67×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 167$110 110 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%4637.01.24×
StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 167$110 110 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%4737.01.27×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 167$109 109 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%3137.00.84×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 167$109 109 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%3137.00.84×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 167$107 107 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%3637.00.97×
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 167$107 107 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%3437.00.92×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 167$105 105 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%4237.01.13×
StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$100 100 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%6661.71.07×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$97.68 97.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%6061.70.97×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$96.26 96.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%5361.70.86×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$93.05 93.05 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%6361.71.02×
FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100$92.90 92.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%6261.71.00×
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 100$92.05 92.05 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%4561.70.73×
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 100$91.85 91.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%5761.70.92×
R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$90.13 90.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%6261.71.00×
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$89.84 89.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%6361.71.02×
AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 100$89.16 89.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%6961.71.12×
R8 Revolver | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 100$88.83 88.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%6061.70.97×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 100$87.56 87.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%5261.70.84×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$83.95 83.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%7961.71.28×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient1 in 100$82.80 82.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%5761.70.92×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient1 in 100$82.70 82.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%5861.70.94×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$76.50 76.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%6161.70.99×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$73.94 73.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%6261.71.00×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 100$73.92 73.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%4561.70.73×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$73.72 73.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%6561.71.05×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient1 in 100$69.96 69.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%7261.71.17×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$69.54 69.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%6861.71.10×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 100$69.20 69.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%5261.70.84×
AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 100$66.82 66.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%6561.71.05×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$66.67 66.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%6561.71.05×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 100$62.39 62.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%4361.70.70×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$61.91 61.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%7461.71.20×
AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$60.78 60.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%5361.70.86×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 100$55.54 55.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%5661.70.91×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 100$53.48 53.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%6461.71.04×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$52.07 52.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%7361.71.18×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 100$51.55 51.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%5761.70.92×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$50.89 50.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%5861.70.94×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$50.72 50.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%6761.71.09×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 100$50.57 50.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%7761.71.25×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$50.29 50.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%6061.70.97×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 50$48.24 48.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%147123.51.19×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50$47.59 47.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%133123.51.08×
AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 50$46.33 46.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%126123.51.02×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 33$46.14 46.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%165185.20.89×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33$42.77 42.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%204185.21.10×
FAMAS | Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 33$42.46 42.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%205185.21.11×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red1 in 33$42.32 42.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%191185.21.03×
FAMAS | Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 33$39.38 39.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%179185.20.97×
FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 33$39.24 39.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%170185.20.92×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 33$39.00 39 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%202185.21.09×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 33$38.96 38.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%191185.21.03×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert1 in 33$38.52 38.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%178185.20.96×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 33$37.49 37.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%194185.21.05×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 33$37.20 37.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%192185.21.04×
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 33$36.10 36.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%187185.21.01×
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 33$36.00 36 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%160185.20.86×
FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 33$35.24 35.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%166185.20.90×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertHisoka Morow - BR$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$97.6897.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.15x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertHisoka Morow - BR$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$138138 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.63x
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertFAIL SENPA1™$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$47.5947.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.56x
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertFAIL SENPA1™$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$53.4853.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.63x
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertMf Bread$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$91.8591.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.08x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertf q$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$93.0593.05 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.09x
P90 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert0r1g1n$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$212212 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.50x
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covertf q$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$36.1036.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.42x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert0r1g1n$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$195195 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.30x
R8 Revolver | Fade (Well-Worn)weapon · redf q$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$161161 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.90x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$85.0087.38%98
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 70.5%#eb4b4b 1.6%Ancient 9.5%red 12.6%Covert 5.8%best hit —