Pandora Hunter
A case on Hotpizza.gg (Covert Hunters), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.
Price
$65.00
65 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
86.78%
EV $56.40 from 94 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.71%
6,529 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values94 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,551 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $1,101 1,101 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.0% | 10 | 6.6 | 1.53× |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $721 721 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.3% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× |
| M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $682 682 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.2% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $629 629 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.1% | 3 | 6.6 | 0.46× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $588 588 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.0% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.07× |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $539 539 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.9% | 15 | 13.1 | 1.14× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $507 507 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.8% | 9 | 13.1 | 0.69× |
| M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $500 500 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.8% | 12 | 13.1 | 0.92× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $496 496 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.6% | 20 | 19.7 | 1.02× |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $393 393 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.1% | 18 | 19.7 | 0.92× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $391 391 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.1% | 19 | 19.7 | 0.97× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $386 386 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.1% | 21 | 19.7 | 1.07× |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $375 375 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.7% | 28 | 26.2 | 1.07× |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $367 367 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.6% | 27 | 26.2 | 1.03× |
| M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $359 359 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.5% | 22 | 26.2 | 0.84× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $358 358 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.5% | 20 | 26.2 | 0.76× |
| M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $354 354 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.5% | 28 | 26.2 | 1.07× |
| Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $344 344 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.4% | 27 | 26.2 | 1.03× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $338 338 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.4% | 26 | 26.2 | 0.99× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $337 337 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.4% | 32 | 26.2 | 1.22× |
| Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $337 337 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.4% | 23 | 26.2 | 0.88× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $329 329 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.3% | 24 | 26.2 | 0.92× |
| M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $326 326 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.3% | 32 | 26.2 | 1.22× |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $258 258 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.8% | 27 | 26.2 | 1.03× |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $250 250 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.2% | 27 | 32.8 | 0.82× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 167 | $201 201 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.1% | 35 | 39.3 | 0.89× |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 167 | $189 189 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.0% | 44 | 39.3 | 1.12× |
| M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 167 | $170 170 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.8% | 41 | 39.3 | 1.04× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 167 | $168 168 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.8% | 37 | 39.3 | 0.94× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 167 | $168 168 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.8% | 37 | 39.3 | 0.94× |
| M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 167 | $157 157 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.7% | 40 | 39.3 | 1.02× |
| AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 167 | $141 141 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.5% | 31 | 39.3 | 0.79× |
| MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 167 | $112 112 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.2% | 30 | 39.3 | 0.76× |
| AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 167 | $104 104 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.1% | 33 | 39.3 | 0.84× |
| Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 167 | $82.31 82.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.9% | 55 | 39.3 | 1.40× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 143 | $81.65 81.65 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.0% | 49 | 45.9 | 1.07× |
| M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 143 | $76.87 76.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.0% | 60 | 45.9 | 1.31× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 125 | $74.27 74.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.1% | 64 | 52.4 | 1.22× |
| AK-47 | Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert | 1 in 125 | $65.86 65.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.9% | 49 | 52.4 | 0.93× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red | 1 in 125 | $65.20 65.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.9% | 45 | 52.4 | 0.86× |
| M4A4 | In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 125 | $60.63 60.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.9% | 53 | 52.4 | 1.01× |
| MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 125 | $51.39 51.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.7% | 45 | 52.4 | 0.86× |
| Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 125 | $48.35 48.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.7% | 56 | 52.4 | 1.07× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 100 | $47.35 47.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.8% | 74 | 65.5 | 1.13× |
| AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $46.85 46.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.8% | 78 | 65.5 | 1.19× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $46.04 46.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.8% | 55 | 65.5 | 0.84× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 1 in 100 | $44.36 44.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.8% | 58 | 65.5 | 0.89× |
| M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $42.80 42.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.8% | 63 | 65.5 | 0.96× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red | 1 in 100 | $42.60 42.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.8% | 59 | 65.5 | 0.90× |
| AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 100 | $40.15 40.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.7% | 80 | 65.5 | 1.22× |
| M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 100 | $39.68 39.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.7% | 67 | 65.5 | 1.02× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $39.12 39.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.7% | 63 | 65.5 | 0.96× |
| Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $38.86 38.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.7% | 69 | 65.5 | 1.05× |
| AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 1 in 100 | $38.60 38.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.7% | 76 | 65.5 | 1.16× |
| MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $38.48 38.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.7% | 79 | 65.5 | 1.21× |
| Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $38.30 38.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.7% | 53 | 65.5 | 0.81× |
| M4A4 | In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $37.27 37.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.7% | 64 | 65.5 | 0.98× |
| MP7 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 100 | $37.06 37.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.7% | 68 | 65.5 | 1.04× |
| M4A4 | Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 1 in 100 | $36.54 36.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.6% | 71 | 65.5 | 1.08× |
| AK-47 | Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 100 | $36.44 36.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.6% | 61 | 65.5 | 0.93× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $35.45 35.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.6% | 65 | 65.5 | 0.99× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 100 | $35.33 35.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.6% | 63 | 65.5 | 0.96× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $35.27 35.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.6% | 73 | 65.5 | 1.11× |
| M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 100 | $33.85 33.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.6% | 52 | 65.5 | 0.79× |
| AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 100 | $33.19 33.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.6% | 61 | 65.5 | 0.93× |
| AK-47 | Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 100 | $33.10 33.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.6% | 70 | 65.5 | 1.07× |
| MP7 | Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b | 1 in 71 | $33.01 33.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.8% | 108 | 91.7 | 1.18× |
| M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 71 | $31.52 31.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.8% | 90 | 91.7 | 0.98× |
| AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 71 | $31.14 31.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.8% | 81 | 91.7 | 0.88× |
| M4A4 | In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 50 | $30.71 30.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.1% | 136 | 131.0 | 1.04× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 50 | $10.61 10.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.4% | 135 | 131.0 | 1.03× |
| MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 1 in 50 | $8.77 8.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.3% | 123 | 131.0 | 0.94× |
| Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 50 | $8.76 8.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.3% | 133 | 131.0 | 1.02× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $8.44 8.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.3% | 140 | 131.0 | 1.07× |
| Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 1 in 50 | $8.06 8.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.3% | 134 | 131.0 | 1.02× |
| XM1014 | XOXO (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $7.62 7.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.3% | 116 | 131.0 | 0.89× |
| P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 1 in 50 | $7.45 7.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.3% | 142 | 131.0 | 1.08× |
| AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 50 | $7.32 7.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.3% | 130 | 131.0 | 0.99× |
| AUG | Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 50 | $7.06 7.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.3% | 136 | 131.0 | 1.04× |
| AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified | 1 in 50 | $7.04 7.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.2% | 135 | 131.0 | 1.03× |
| UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 1 in 50 | $6.94 6.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.2% | 123 | 131.0 | 0.94× |
| P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 1 in 50 | $6.11 6.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.2% | 124 | 131.0 | 0.95× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 50 | $5.74 5.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.2% | 121 | 131.0 | 0.92× |
| Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 50 | $4.93 4.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.2% | 138 | 131.0 | 1.05× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $4.88 4.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.2% | 127 | 131.0 | 0.97× |
| AUG | Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 50 | $4.79 4.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.2% | 130 | 131.0 | 0.99× |
| P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 50 | $4.51 4.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.2% | 127 | 131.0 | 0.97× |
| UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 50 | $4.51 4.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.2% | 126 | 131.0 | 0.96× |
| AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $4.44 4.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.2% | 128 | 131.0 | 0.98× |
| MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $4.40 4.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.2% | 142 | 131.0 | 1.08× |
| Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 50 | $4.19 4.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.1% | 121 | 131.0 | 0.92× |
| XM1014 | XOXO (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 33 | $4.16 4.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.2% | 223 | 196.5 | 1.13× |
| P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 33 | $4.14 4.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.2% | 188 | 196.5 | 0.96× |
| AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink | 1 in 33 | $4.10 4.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 0.2% | 181 | 196.5 | 0.92× |
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covertGeT_Ward$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1011,101 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.94x
AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covertLordMustang$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1011,101 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.94x
AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covertkawi$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1011,101 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.94x
AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covertластхитмен$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1011,101 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.94x
AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covertFeNiX$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1011,101 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.94x
AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covertADsKa9$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1011,101 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.94x
AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covertbonnie$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1011,101 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.94x
AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covertCanoX$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1011,101 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.94x
AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covertClashman$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1011,101 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.94x
AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covertbrus$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1011,101 HOTPIZZA_POINT16.94x
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covertDer_Dome$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$42.8042.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.66x
UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkDer_Dome$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.946.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.11x
USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedAnguish_Teo$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.884.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.08x
USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified0qkuyn$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$8.448.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.13x
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertAnguish_Teo$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$31.5231.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.48x
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary0qkuyn$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.934.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.08x
USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · redII Chefkøch II$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$168168 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.58x
UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkII Chefkøch II$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.946.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.11x
M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertemirg2k$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$393393 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.05x
AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendaryemirg2k$65.0065 HOTPIZZA_POINT$10.6110.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.78%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $65.00 | 86.78% | 94 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 25.6%Ancient 9.8%red 10.4%Covert 0.8%#eb4b4b 2.4%Legendary 15.0%pink 22.0%classified 10.0%#d32ee6 2.0%Classified 2.0%best hit $1,101 (16.94x)