Monster "Z"

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Monster Pizza), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.75

0.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

89.89%

EV $0.67 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.93%

62.1K openings, odds method

Variance

12.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.63%±8.097,538 openings

7 days

89.86%±3.0752.6K openings

30 days

89.93%±2.8262.1K openings

since tracking started

89.93%±2.8262.1K openings

81.0%89.8%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7,538	89.63%±8.09	−0.1σ	odds
7d	52.6K	89.86%±3.07	−0.1σ	odds
30d	62.1K	89.93%±2.82	−0.1σ	odds
All	62.1K	89.93%±2.82	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 62.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 10,000	$149 149 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	8	6.2	1.29×
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$147 147 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	13	12.4	1.04×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$22.46 22.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	60	62.2	0.96×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,000	$5.21 5.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	59	62.2	0.95×
MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$4.42 4.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	106	124.5	0.85×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Parallax (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 455	$4.09 4.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	117	136.9	0.85×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$3.88 3.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	176	186.7	0.94×
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 167	$3.13 3.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	379	373.4	1.01×
FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 167	$2.75 2.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	126	373.4	0.34×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 143	$2.16 2.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	172	435.7	0.39×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 111	$1.40 1.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	184	560.1	0.33×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 80	$1.31 1.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	263	778.0	0.34×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 50	$1.26 1.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	1,258	1244.8	1.01×
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$1.16 1.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	1,268	1244.8	1.02×
StatTrak™ M249 \| System Lock (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$1.02 1.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	1,231	1244.8	0.99×
MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$0.97 0.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	1,273	1244.8	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$0.82 0.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	1,876	1867.1	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$0.78 0.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	1,814	1867.1	0.97×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$0.76 0.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	2,473	2489.5	0.99×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$0.72 0.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.3%	3,134	3111.9	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$0.64 0.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.7%	3,799	3734.3	1.02×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$0.62 0.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.5%	3,784	3734.3	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$0.54 0.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	3,710	3734.3	0.99×
P90 \| Ancient Earth (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 14	$0.50 0.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	4,380	4356.7	1.01×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 17	$0.48 0.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	3,644	3734.3	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Off World (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$0.43 0.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	3,817	3734.3	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 17	$0.36 0.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	3,714	3734.3	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 20	$0.32 0.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	3,168	3111.9	1.02×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 25	$0.30 0.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	2,522	2489.5	1.01×
Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 25	$0.29 0.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	2,540	2489.5	1.02×
Negev \| Bulkhead (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$0.26 0.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	2,505	2489.5	1.01×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$0.22 0.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	2,495	2489.5	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$0.19 0.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	2,521	2489.5	1.01×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$0.13 0.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	2,434	2489.5	0.98×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Gotteshand$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$149149 HOTPIZZA_POINT199.1x13h

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1ЗЕЛИБОБА$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$149149 HOTPIZZA_POINT199.1x2d

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Huyz$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$149149 HOTPIZZA_POINT199.1x3d

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Featler$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$149149 HOTPIZZA_POINT199.1x4d

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Guac It$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$149149 HOTPIZZA_POINT199.1x5d

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1jetpans$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$149149 HOTPIZZA_POINT199.1x5d

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Ⱥƞɖᶉϵὦ$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$149149 HOTPIZZA_POINT199.1x6d

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1alxn$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$149149 HOTPIZZA_POINT199.1x6d

★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covertEsqi$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$147147 HOTPIZZA_POINT195.7x8h

★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert🔥 Mephisto 🔥$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$147147 HOTPIZZA_POINT195.7x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrialintrenity$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.360.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.48x30s

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialFortnite Balls$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.220.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.29x30s

MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrialBriss$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.360.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.48x30s

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)weapon · RareKitty delivery$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.640.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.85x35s

USP-S | Silent Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecBullzeye$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.300.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.40x36s

MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)weapon · violet✌(ツ)ว🌟$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.760.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.01x43s

M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedJack#RustCases.comrustchance.com$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.540.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x43s

PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ffASM$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.311.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.75x43s

Glock-18 | Catacombs (Field-Tested)weapon · RareFOEHAMMER$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.820.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.09x43s

M4A1-S | Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted✌(ツ)ว🌟$0.750.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.540.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x48s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.89%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 10:33 UTC	$0.75	89.89%	34
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$0.75	90.24%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.1%#8847ff 4.0%restricted 6.5%Restricted 2.2%blue 5.3%Mythical 5.9%Rare 23.0%milspec 17.0%violet 7.0%gray 7.0%industrial 14.0%#4b69ff 8.0%best hit $149 (199.1x)