AK-47

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$3.94

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $3.45 from 109 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.02%

15.9K openings, odds method

Variance

25.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.57%±23.501,778 openings

7 days

81.92%±8.7013.4K openings

30 days

82.02%±7.9615.9K openings

since tracking started

82.02%±7.9615.9K openings

59.5%83.5%107.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,778	83.57%±23.5	−0.3σ	odds
7d	13.4K	81.92%±8.70	−1.3σ	odds
30d	15.9K	82.02%±7.96	−1.4σ	odds
All	15.9K	82.02%±7.96	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values109 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$5,557	1.6%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$1,888	0.5%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$1,027	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$706	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$441	0.3%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$338	0.5%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 100,000	$307	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$214	0.2%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 100,000	$214	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 33,333	$187	0.2%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 50,000	$180	0.1%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$170	0.2%	1	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$145	0.2%	1	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 25,000	$137	0.2%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$129	0.2%	1	0.6	—
AK-47 \| First Class (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20,000	$116	0.2%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 50,000	$111	0.1%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 33,333	$111	0.1%	2	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$101	0.1%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 33,333	$98.55	0.1%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$97.20	0.2%	1	1.0	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 16,667	$92.38	0.2%	2	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 33,333	$87.64	0.1%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$85.30	0.1%	0	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$73.13	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$60.01	0.1%	2	1.3	1.57×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$54.15	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 11,111	$53.18	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$50.22	0.1%	0	1.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$43.45	0.1%	2	1.8	1.14×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 9,091	$42.81	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 8,333	$41.54	0.1%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$39.35	0.1%	1	1.9	0.52×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 8,333	$38.55	0.1%	2	1.9	1.05×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$33.60	0.1%	2	2.2	0.90×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 33,333	$30.98	0.0%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 25,000	$26.79	0.0%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,545	$20.29	0.1%	2	3.5	0.57×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 16,667	$19.53	0.0%	0	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$17.89	0.1%	6	4.0	1.51×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 16,667	$17.55	0.0%	1	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,704	$16.58	0.1%	4	4.3	0.93×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,448	$15.31	0.1%	4	4.6	0.87×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 242	$13.67	1.6%	35	65.9	0.53×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 222	$13.09	1.7%	36	71.8	0.50×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 238	$12.97	1.6%	47	66.9	0.70×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,220	$11.78	0.3%	5	13.1	0.38×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 260	$10.77	1.2%	39	61.2	0.64×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 161	$10.65	1.9%	52	99.2	0.52×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 210	$9.66	1.3%	44	76.0	0.58×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 225	$9.23	1.2%	34	70.7	0.48×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 193	$8.47	1.3%	32	82.5	0.39×
AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 204	$8.26	1.2%	36	78.2	0.46×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 275	$7.90	0.8%	27	57.8	0.47×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 208	$7.78	1.1%	24	76.6	0.31×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 166	$7.26	1.3%	45	95.7	0.47×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 88	$7.02	2.3%	73	181.9	0.40×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 83	$6.84	2.4%	83	191.6	0.43×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 75	$6.76	2.6%	109	213.1	0.51×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 98	$6.59	2.0%	70	162.8	0.43×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 96	$6.54	2.0%	73	165.3	0.44×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$6.25	2.6%	114	229.5	0.50×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 87	$6.22	2.1%	61	182.7	0.33×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 106	$5.81	1.6%	99	150.1	0.66×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 171	$5.80	1.0%	61	93.0	0.66×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 162	$5.59	1.0%	57	98.4	0.58×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 170	$5.44	0.9%	69	93.7	0.74×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 145	$5.30	1.1%	52	109.6	0.47×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 142	$5.29	1.1%	43	111.8	0.38×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 138	$5.16	1.1%	64	115.5	0.55×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 129	$5.04	1.1%	74	123.1	0.60×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 132	$4.67	1.0%	89	120.3	0.74×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 287	$4.64	0.5%	27	55.4	0.49×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 394	$4.63	0.3%	20	40.5	0.49×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 129	$4.61	1.0%	84	123.3	0.68×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 82	$4.60	1.6%	100	194.3	0.51×
AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 117	$4.50	1.1%	78	136.7	0.57×
AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 110	$4.38	1.2%	74	144.3	0.51×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 116	$4.37	1.1%	72	137.3	0.52×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 224	$4.26	0.6%	37	71.0	0.52×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 117	$4.21	1.0%	71	135.7	0.52×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 104	$3.97	1.1%	83	152.4	0.54×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue	1 in 104	$3.97	1.1%	68	152.4	0.45×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 89	$3.81	1.2%	92	179.7	0.51×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 85	$3.54	1.2%	121	188.3	0.64×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$3.44	4.1%	383	652.0	0.59×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$3.26	1.9%	198	321.8	0.62×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 49	$3.25	1.9%	162	323.4	0.50×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 77	$3.25	1.2%	115	205.6	0.56×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 37	$2.67	2.1%	246	434.2	0.57×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 55	$2.59	1.4%	163	288.8	0.56×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$2.54	1.5%	176	321.3	0.55×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common	1 in 50	$2.42	1.4%	178	320.0	0.56×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 48	$2.39	1.4%	182	330.5	0.55×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 46	$2.31	1.4%	183	343.0	0.53×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$2.22	1.6%	190	393.3	0.48×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 42	$2.22	1.5%	211	379.0	0.56×
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$2.17	1.6%	213	407.0	0.52×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 41	$2.17	1.5%	215	392.0	0.55×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 122	$2.14	0.5%	80	130.8	0.61×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 37	$2.03	1.6%	248	433.3	0.57×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 34	$1.91	1.6%	232	462.6	0.50×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 34	$1.90	1.6%	265	466.2	0.57×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 46	$1.86	1.2%	262	344.4	0.76×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 41	$1.04	0.7%	213	385.8	0.55×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 34	$0.92	0.8%	291	463.5	0.63×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 26	$0.77	0.8%	327	605.5	0.54×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 25	$0.74	0.9%	345	642.6	0.54×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	11.7%	$0.60	2.0%	797	1862.9	0.43×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/ak-47, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Unchartedweapon · blueMorci$3.94$0.920.23x49s

AK-47 | Searing Rageweapon · pinkMorci$3.94$5.971.52x57s

AK-47 | Unchartedweapon · blueMorci$3.94$0.920.23x1m

AK-47 | The Outsidersweapon · pinkMorci$3.94$6.671.69x1m

AK-47 | Aphroditeweapon · redMorci$3.94$13.473.42x1m

AK-47 | Steel Deltaweapon · blueMorci$3.94$2.330.59x1m

AK-47 | Wintergreenweapon · blueMorci$3.94$0.870.22x1m

AK-47 | Baroque Purpleweapon · light blueMorci$3.94$4.601.17x1m

AK-47 | Rat Rodweapon · violetNeff$3.94$5.091.29x1m

AK-47 | Unchartedweapon · blueMorci$3.94$0.920.23x1m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$3.94	87.50%	109
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$3.94	87.49%	109
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$3.94	87.51%	109
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$3.94	87.75%	109
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$3.94	87.75%	109
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.94	88.23%	109
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$3.94	88.16%	109
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$3.94	87.56%	109
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$3.94	87.31%	109
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$3.94	87.93%	109
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$3.94	87.76%	109
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$3.94	87.60%	109
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$3.94	87.58%	109
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$3.94	87.63%	109
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$3.94	87.87%	109
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$3.94	88.22%	109
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.94	88.29%	109

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%classified 1.3%red 0.9%pink 8.0%restricted 14.9%rare 1.1%mil spec 9.1%Ancient 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%Mythical 5.5%Legendary 1.6%industrial 1.4%#d32ce6 1.9%#d32ee6 1.8%Classified 0.6%violet 5.5%#4b69ff 12.0%blue 13.6%Uncommon 0.9%light blue 1.0%milspec 4.0%Rare 10.8%common 3.8%best hit —