ARTEMIS

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$10.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $8.75 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.63%

3,448 openings, odds method

Variance

4.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.70%±19.65394 openings

7 days

85.23%±7.043,104 openings

30 days

83.63%±6.693,448 openings

since tracking started

83.63%±6.693,448 openings

72.5%92.8%113.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	394	92.70%±19.6	+0.5σ	odds
7d	3,104	85.23%±7.04	−0.7σ	odds
30d	3,448	83.63%±6.69	−1.2σ	odds
All	3,448	83.63%±6.69	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,448 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$428	1.0%	0	0.7	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 5,000	$423	1.0%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$104	2.4%	2	6.9	0.29×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$100	1.7%	7	5.2	1.35×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$100	1.7%	3	5.2	0.58×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 75	$87.50	13.3%	54	45.7	1.18×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 115	$64.31	6.4%	26	30.0	0.87×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$59.97	6.9%	15	34.5	0.43×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 47	$54.95	13.3%	79	72.8	1.09×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 155	$54.81	4.1%	15	22.3	0.67×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 146	$53.32	4.2%	13	23.5	0.55×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 99	$43.82	5.1%	13	34.9	0.37×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$23.67	4.0%	41	51.4	0.80×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 52	$20.76	4.6%	40	66.8	0.60×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 51	$20.63	4.6%	47	67.7	0.69×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$20.29	4.0%	47	59.8	0.79×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$18.51	4.4%	45	71.9	0.63×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$16.90	4.8%	60	86.2	0.70×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	11.7%	$7.26	9.7%	378	402.0	0.94×
SCAR-20 \| Trail Blazer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	68.4%	$0.38	3.0%	2,401	2359.8	1.02×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/artemis, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecelSimione$10.00$0.380.04x20m

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecLuffy$10.00$0.380.04x1h

AK-47 | Frontside Mistyweapon · pinkLuffy$10.00$18.361.84x1h

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecLuffy$10.00$0.380.04x1h

AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedKhUkr$10.00$7.260.73x1h

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecKhUkr$10.00$0.380.04x1h

M4A4 | Cyber Securityweapon · pinkmorxlesss$10.00$21.522.15x3h

M4A1-S | Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$10.00$10310.27x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$10.00	87.50%	20
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$10.00	87.43%	20
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$10.00	87.82%	20
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$10.00	87.96%	20
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$10.00	87.13%	20
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$10.00	87.30%	20
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$10.00	88.00%	20
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$10.00	87.64%	20
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$10.00	87.67%	20
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$10.00	87.47%	20
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$10.00	87.84%	20
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$10.00	87.50%	20
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$10.00	87.86%	20
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$10.00	87.82%	20
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$10.00	87.62%	20
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$10.00	87.60%	20
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$10.00	87.64%	20
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$10.00	87.78%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 4.5%classified 8.0%red 3.4%pink 3.9%restricted 11.7%milspec 68.4%best hit —