COIL

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$14.25

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $12.47 from 92 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.53%

1,549 openings, odds method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

62.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

68.45%±33.26135 openings

7 days

87.21%±11.371,253 openings

30 days

87.53%±10.181,549 openings

since tracking started

87.53%±10.181,549 openings

34.5%68.5%102.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	135	68.45%±33.3	−1.1σ	odds
7d	1,253	87.21%±11.4	−0.1σ	odds
30d	1,549	87.53%±10.2	−0.0σ	odds
All	1,549	87.53%±10.2	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values92 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,549 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 7,692	$1,142	1.2%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 6,250	$915	1.2%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 7,692	$509	0.5%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 4,762	$395	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,263	$326	0.5%	0	0.3	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,174	$306	1.1%	3	0.7	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$277	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$266	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,030	$244	0.6%	1	0.5	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$239	0.4%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$222	0.4%	1	0.4	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic	1 in 4,348	$218	0.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 4,762	$203	0.3%	0	0.3	—
Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,149	$159	1.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$156	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$146	0.2%	1	0.3	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$137	0.2%	1	0.3	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$133	0.2%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$131	0.2%	1	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 11,111	$124	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$123	0.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,316	$118	0.7%	1	1.2	0.85×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 4,348	$113	0.2%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$111	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$108	0.2%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,351	$92.17	0.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,266	$89.57	0.6%	2	1.2	1.63×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 885	$85.81	0.8%	3	1.8	1.71×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 2,222	$79.93	0.3%	1	0.7	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,128	$78.25	0.3%	1	0.7	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$75.88	0.2%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,273	$73.72	0.3%	0	0.7	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,613	$67.80	0.3%	2	1.0	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$64.31	0.3%	1	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,887	$62.89	0.3%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$59.97	0.3%	2	1.0	1.96×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 11,111	$58.98	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 270	$40.27	1.2%	5	5.7	0.87×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 151	$40.18	2.1%	12	10.3	1.17×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$39.35	2.2%	12	10.7	1.12×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 235	$37.60	1.3%	5	6.6	0.76×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 151	$35.79	1.9%	11	10.3	1.07×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 151	$35.74	1.9%	10	10.3	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 92	$35.42	3.1%	12	16.9	0.71×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$34.71	2.8%	11	15.5	0.71×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 79	$32.83	3.3%	7	19.7	0.36×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 1,351	$28.87	0.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$26.29	13.0%	67	95.4	0.70×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 239	$24.90	0.8%	4	6.5	0.62×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 85	$24.36	2.3%	11	18.3	0.60×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$23.44	6.6%	24	54.4	0.44×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 159	$23.33	1.2%	5	9.8	0.51×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 59	$20.90	2.8%	28	26.2	1.07×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 52	$20.76	3.2%	8	29.7	0.27×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$20.66	2.9%	14	26.8	0.52×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 52	$20.63	3.2%	16	30.1	0.53×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$20.29	5.2%	45	49.9	0.90×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 47	$18.56	3.2%	37	33.3	1.11×
Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$14.90	2.9%	26	37.3	0.70×
Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$14.48	3.0%	15	39.4	0.38×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 385	$14.44	0.3%	1	4.0	0.25×
Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 108	$13.92	1.0%	14	14.3	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 202	$13.39	0.5%	10	7.7	1.31×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 82	$10.78	1.1%	18	19.0	0.95×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 166	$10.77	0.5%	8	9.3	0.86×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 75	$10.24	1.1%	19	20.5	0.93×
G3SG1 \| High Seas (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 769	$10.19	0.1%	0	2.0	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 174	$9.21	0.4%	9	8.9	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 91	$7.85	0.7%	11	17.0	0.65×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 402	$7.27	0.1%	1	3.9	0.26×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 83	$6.76	0.7%	13	18.7	0.69×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 104	$6.55	0.5%	15	14.8	1.01×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$6.34	0.5%	9	15.6	0.58×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$5.99	0.5%	13	16.9	0.77×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 332	$5.95	0.1%	6	4.7	1.29×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$5.81	0.7%	27	23.5	1.15×
MP7 \| Amberline (Factory New)weapon · 3	1 in 307	$5.09	0.1%	1	5.0	0.20×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 42	$4.68	0.9%	19	37.0	0.51×
G3SG1 \| High Seas (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 187	$3.95	0.2%	6	8.3	0.73×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 96	$2.60	0.2%	5	16.1	0.31×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 97	$2.37	0.2%	10	15.9	0.63×
MP7 \| Amberline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 78	$2.05	0.2%	8	19.7	0.41×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 56	$1.95	0.3%	19	27.7	0.68×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 40	$1.56	0.3%	36	38.8	0.93×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 47	$1.46	0.2%	23	32.9	0.70×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 35	$1.43	0.3%	31	44.2	0.70×
MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$1.09	0.3%	43	50.8	0.85×
G3SG1 \| High Seas (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.04	0.3%	39	61.1	0.64×
G3SG1 \| High Seas (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$0.92	0.3%	63	73.5	0.86×
MP7 \| Amberline (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 24	$0.92	0.3%	41	65.6	0.63×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 14	$0.65	0.4%	82	110.7	0.74×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	10.1%	$0.57	0.5%	107	156.8	0.68×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/coil, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Nouveau Rougeweapon · pinkrezende2.0$14.25$9.750.68x21m

AK-47 | Frontside Mistyweapon · pinkrezende2.0$14.25$23.211.63x21m

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkrezende2.0$14.25$6.740.47x23m

G3SG1 | High Seas (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$14.25$1.060.07x23m

USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon$14.25$0.590.04x23m

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$14.25$6.740.47x23m

Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red$14.25$32.062.25x23m

Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$14.25$14.561.02x23m

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedrezende2.0$14.25$19.481.37x23m

Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$14.25$1.600.11x23m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$14.25	87.50%	92
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$14.25	87.53%	92
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$14.25	87.74%	92
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$14.25	87.92%	92
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$14.25	87.63%	92
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$14.25	87.81%	92
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$14.25	87.82%	92
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$14.25	87.04%	92
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$14.25	87.09%	92
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$14.25	87.44%	92
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$14.25	87.29%	92
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$14.25	87.71%	92
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$14.25	87.13%	92
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$14.25	87.16%	92
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$14.25	87.82%	92
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$14.25	87.11%	92
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$14.25	87.32%	92
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$14.25	87.90%	92

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 0.3%covert 1.3%#d32ee6 1.7%epic 0.0%restricted 9.4%classified 27.7%rare 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%red 3.6%Ancient 0.5%pink 12.0%violet 18.1%Legendary 4.0%#8847ff 8.7%Classified 1.1%Mythical 1.3%uncommon 10.1%best hit —