EXTRA JUICY
A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.
Price
$250.00
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $218.76 from 26 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.45%
8,694 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 86.69% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.56% – 86.34%, 8,694 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,225 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
keydrop:skins/category/extra-juicy, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $250 | 87.50% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $250 | 86.42% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $250 | 86.00% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $250 | 87.42% | 26 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 21.3%restricted 11.6%extraordinary 1.7%gold 2.8%mil spec 2.9%epic 5.5%pink 6.5%violet 6.8%gray 7.0%blue 16.5%#4b69ff 8.6%Industrial Grade 8.9%best hit $5,557 (22.23x)