JOKER

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$39.47

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $34.54 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.30%

2,582 openings, odds method

Variance

3.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.64%±16.95429 openings

7 days

88.29%±7.852,182 openings

30 days

88.30%±7.192,582 openings

since tracking started

88.30%±7.192,582 openings

65.0%82.5%100.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	429	82.64%±17.0	−0.6σ	odds
7d	2,182	88.29%±7.85	+0.2σ	odds
30d	2,582	88.30%±7.19	+0.2σ	odds
All	2,582	88.30%±7.19	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,582 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$5,557	1.6%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,328	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$1,178	0.3%	1	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 5,000	$787	0.5%	3	0.5	—
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 5,000	$688	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$609	0.5%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,333	$559	0.5%	0	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,333	$556	0.5%	0	0.8	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$411	0.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$280	0.5%	1	1.5	0.65×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 1,667	$237	0.4%	3	1.5	1.94×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$234	0.1%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$214	0.4%	3	1.8	1.66×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$154	0.2%	1	1.0	0.97×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 526	$148	0.8%	2	4.9	0.41×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 476	$144	0.9%	8	5.4	1.48×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 435	$137	0.9%	9	5.9	1.52×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 400	$131	1.0%	2	6.5	0.31×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 156	$108	2.0%	19	16.5	1.15×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 147	$104	2.1%	18	17.6	1.03×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$104	2.4%	30	20.7	1.45×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 73	$101	4.0%	47	35.4	1.33×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10	$85.81	24.3%	173	252.3	0.69×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 49	$57.86	3.5%	47	53.2	0.88×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 44	$54.95	3.6%	50	59.1	0.85×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 47	$54.81	3.4%	57	55.0	1.04×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 44	$53.32	3.5%	63	58.1	1.08×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 37	$50.31	4.0%	70	70.5	0.99×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 30	$43.82	4.2%	68	86.0	0.79×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	20.3%	$35.91	21.1%	376	525.2	0.72×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$30.29	6.2%	201	182.0	1.10×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$28.80	3.4%	85	104.3	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 208	$12.18	0.2%	10	12.4	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 64	$5.84	0.3%	32	40.5	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$2.74	0.4%	97	135.6	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	11.8%	$1.65	0.6%	181	305.5	0.59×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	20.1%	$1.18	0.7%	379	518.2	0.73×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/joker, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedpodsiadlo dave$39.47$1,17829.84x3d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareShaman$39.47$79420.11x1d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$39.47$79420.11x1d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare$39.47$74818.96x4d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$39.47$62215.76x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Liquidationweapon · restrictedゼロツー$39.47$1.850.05x2h

USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$39.47$30.290.77x2h

M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$39.47$1.130.03x2h

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$39.47$30.920.78x2h

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$39.47$35.500.90x2h

M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedゼロツー$39.47$1.660.04x2h

USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedゼロツー$39.47$30.290.77x2h

AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$39.47$44.141.12x2h

M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$39.47$1.130.03x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$39.47	87.50%	37
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$39.47	87.72%	37
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$39.47	87.99%	37
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$39.47	87.86%	37
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$39.47	87.90%	37
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$39.47	87.88%	37
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$39.47	87.16%	37
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$39.47	87.21%	37
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$39.47	87.39%	37
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$39.47	87.72%	37
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$39.47	87.64%	37
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$39.47	87.67%	37
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$39.47	88.07%	37
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$39.47	87.57%	37
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$39.47	87.23%	37
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$39.47	86.91%	37
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$39.47	87.63%	37
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$39.47	87.16%	37

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 20.1%classified 1.3%rare 4.8%epic 0.0%restricted 39.3%gold 0.1%red 3.0%violet 30.9%Mythical 0.5%best hit $1,178 (29.84x)