LUNA

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$110.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $96.25 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.47%

884 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

47 openings · below min

7 days

83.93%±8.20716 openings

30 days

87.47%±7.34884 openings

since tracking started

87.47%±7.34884 openings

41.5%74.0%106.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	47	73.77%±31.9	—	odds
7d	716	83.93%±8.20	−0.8σ	odds
30d	884	87.47%±7.34	−0.0σ	odds
All	884	87.47%±7.34	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 884 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$5,557	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · legendary · Black Pearl	1 in 5,000	$3,063	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 833	$806	1.0%	2	1.1	1.89×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 625	$588	1.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 625	$586	1.0%	1	1.4	0.71×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 455	$423	1.0%	2	1.9	1.03×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 89	$399	4.6%	3	9.9	0.30×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 204	$385	2.0%	2	4.3	0.46×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 75	$336	4.6%	20	11.8	1.70×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 109	$280	2.7%	11	8.1	1.35×
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 62	$276	4.6%	10	14.3	0.70×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 49	$258	5.4%	27	17.9	1.50×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 45	$237	5.4%	13	19.4	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 42	$222	5.4%	20	20.9	0.96×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$220	5.4%	23	21.0	1.09×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 39	$203	5.4%	28	22.7	1.23×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 10	$150	14.9%	85	84.8	1.00×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	12.2%	$118	14.9%	101	107.8	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$104	3.9%	27	32.1	0.84×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$89.30	3.7%	32	35.7	0.90×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 19	$60.01	3.2%	43	45.3	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 19	$54.95	3.1%	45	47.7	0.94×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$23.44	2.2%	81	79.6	1.02×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$16.56	0.9%	39	47.1	0.83×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$15.31	1.0%	41	53.4	0.77×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 33	$7.85	0.2%	17	26.8	0.63×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 17	$5.27	0.3%	28	50.7	0.55×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 16	$5.04	0.3%	45	54.5	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 14	$4.68	0.3%	50	61.8	0.81×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/luna, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$110$8147.40x4d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$110$6045.49x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Black Lotusweapon · pinkhampterinho$110$5.370.05x11h

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$110$1501.36x11h

USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$110$23.440.21x11h

M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red$110$54.950.50x11h

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendaryhampterinho$110$4.680.04x11h

AK-47 | Blue Laminateweapon · violethwng$110$15.900.14x11h

★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertdq$110$2582.34x12h

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$110$4.680.04x12h

★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$110$2031.85x12h

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$110$4.680.04x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$110	87.50%	29
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$110	87.76%	29
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$110	87.45%	29
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$110	87.71%	29
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$110	87.40%	29
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$110	87.26%	29
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$110	87.63%	29
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$110	87.63%	29
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$110	87.32%	29
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$110	87.40%	29
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$110	87.47%	29
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$110	87.49%	29
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$110	87.31%	29
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$110	87.41%	29
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$110	87.66%	29
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$110	87.97%	29
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$110	87.68%	29
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$110	87.42%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 22.6%legendary 0.2%classified 21.8%gold 2.2%epic 2.4%extraordinary 12.2%red 5.4%restricted 11.4%Classified 9.2%pink 5.7%Legendary 7.0%best hit $814 (7.40x)