MARBLED

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$20.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $17.50 from 94 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.55%

9,607 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.30%±6.061,634 openings

7 days

85.84%±2.857,444 openings

30 days

86.55%±2.519,607 openings

since tracking started

86.55%±2.519,607 openings

80.5%87.3%94.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,634	87.30%±6.06	−0.1σ	odds
7d	7,444	85.84%±2.85	−1.1σ	odds
30d	9,607	86.55%±2.51	−0.7σ	odds
All	9,607	86.55%±2.51	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values94 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,639 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33,333	$1,697	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 14,286	$748	0.3%	2	0.7	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 6,667	$626	0.5%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 10,000	$550	0.3%	2	1.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$418	0.5%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$354	0.6%	3	2.9	1.04×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 4,000	$287	0.4%	2	2.4	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 5,000	$222	0.3%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 1,471	$157	0.6%	4	6.6	0.61×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$153	0.2%	1	2.2	0.45×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$150	0.2%	1	2.3	0.43×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 4,348	$148	0.2%	3	2.2	1.35×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$145	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 3,704	$137	0.2%	0	2.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$136	0.3%	4	3.9	1.04×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$134	0.3%	3	3.9	0.78×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 3,448	$131	0.2%	3	2.8	1.07×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$127	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$126	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$89.33	0.1%	2	2.6	0.77×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 3,571	$87.50	0.1%	3	2.7	1.11×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$82.85	0.1%	1	2.3	0.43×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$82.41	0.2%	4	3.1	1.30×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$81.04	0.2%	2	3.4	0.59×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,703	$76.89	0.2%	3	3.6	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$75.12	0.1%	4	3.2	1.26×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 552	$74.49	0.8%	10	17.4	0.57×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 552	$74.47	0.8%	12	17.4	0.69×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 532	$73.13	0.8%	9	18.1	0.50×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 483	$72.60	0.9%	21	20.0	1.05×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 495	$71.65	0.8%	7	19.5	0.36×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 467	$71.39	0.9%	14	20.6	0.68×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$70.80	0.0%	3	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 559	$70.60	0.7%	22	17.3	1.28×
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 730	$67.00	0.5%	12	13.2	0.91×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 769	$66.47	0.5%	10	12.5	0.80×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 469	$64.85	0.8%	11	20.5	0.54×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 463	$64.31	0.8%	15	20.8	0.72×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 431	$58.32	0.8%	25	22.4	1.12×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$56.31	3.0%	83	89.3	0.93×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 344	$54.81	0.9%	31	28.0	1.11×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 376	$54.51	0.8%	21	25.6	0.82×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 210	$54.24	1.5%	46	46.0	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 495	$54.19	0.6%	15	19.5	0.77×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 372	$54.15	0.8%	20	25.9	0.77×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 325	$53.32	0.9%	20	29.7	0.67×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 202	$53.21	1.5%	38	47.7	0.80×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 275	$46.68	1.0%	29	35.0	0.83×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 278	$46.10	0.9%	19	34.7	0.55×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 300	$44.98	0.9%	25	32.1	0.78×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 151	$44.80	1.7%	32	63.8	0.50×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 283	$44.32	0.9%	19	34.0	0.56×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 171	$43.82	1.5%	38	56.4	0.67×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 255	$43.45	1.0%	16	37.8	0.42×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 240	$42.85	1.0%	31	40.1	0.77×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 232	$42.84	1.1%	27	41.5	0.65×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 248	$41.45	1.0%	23	38.9	0.59×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 217	$40.70	1.1%	35	44.4	0.79×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 233	$40.18	1.0%	24	41.4	0.58×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 233	$39.59	1.0%	33	41.4	0.80×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 197	$39.44	1.1%	35	49.0	0.71×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 223	$39.35	1.0%	23	43.2	0.53×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 206	$38.98	1.1%	24	46.8	0.51×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 222	$38.61	1.0%	32	43.5	0.74×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 180	$37.60	1.2%	40	53.7	0.75×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 210	$37.58	1.0%	27	45.9	0.59×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 182	$36.63	1.2%	35	53.0	0.66×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 159	$35.42	1.3%	44	60.5	0.73×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 94	$35.40	2.1%	72	102.2	0.70×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 137	$32.83	1.4%	46	70.4	0.65×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New)weapon · classified	16.5%	$25.53	24.0%	1,143	1586.5	0.72×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 70	$16.32	1.3%	105	137.6	0.76×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 87	$15.79	1.0%	76	110.9	0.69×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 80	$14.90	1.1%	82	120.4	0.68×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 80	$14.83	1.1%	87	121.2	0.72×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 77	$14.53	1.1%	85	124.7	0.68×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 55	$13.67	1.4%	129	174.3	0.74×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 55	$13.65	1.4%	106	174.7	0.61×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 270	$12.49	0.3%	31	35.8	0.87×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 79	$10.77	0.8%	87	122.5	0.71×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 17	$9.72	3.3%	574	567.2	1.01×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$6.76	0.9%	162	235.0	0.69×
UMP-45 \| Houndstooth (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 14	$5.93	2.4%	724	691.0	1.05×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$5.81	1.0%	223	290.4	0.77×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 87	$4.94	0.3%	70	110.8	0.63×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$4.70	2.1%	742	758.4	0.98×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$4.60	0.4%	96	144.3	0.67×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical	1 in 52	$3.87	0.4%	146	183.7	0.79×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 45	$3.44	0.4%	165	216.6	0.76×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical	1 in 41	$3.26	0.5%	177	233.6	0.76×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$2.85	0.4%	176	239.3	0.74×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$2.63	0.4%	200	267.8	0.75×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 35	$2.59	0.4%	205	273.5	0.75×
CZ75-Auto \| Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue	10.5%	$2.27	1.4%	979	1013.0	0.97×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/marbled, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold-KRUSH$20.00$73736.84x4d

★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary$20.00$62231.08x4d

★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary$20.00$60029.99x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Remote Controlweapon · pinkmɅck$20.00$17.410.87x11m

AWP | Fever Dreamweapon · pinkmɅck$20.00$14.990.75x11m

CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light bluemɅck$20.00$2.270.11x11m

Tec-9 | Remote Control (Factory New)weapon · classified$20.00$25.041.25x11m

AK-47 | Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical$20.00$3.850.19x11m

Tec-9 | Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$20.00$2.570.13x11m

CZ75-Auto | Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue$20.00$2.270.11x11m

Tec-9 | Remote Control (Factory New)weapon · classifiedmɅck$20.00$25.041.25x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$20.00	87.50%	94
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$20.00	87.33%	94
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$20.00	87.37%	94
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$20.00	87.44%	94
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$20.00	87.47%	94
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$20.00	87.59%	94
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$20.00	87.39%	94
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$20.00	87.24%	94
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$20.00	87.54%	94
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$20.00	87.41%	94
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$20.00	87.31%	94
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$20.00	87.46%	94
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$20.00	87.44%	94
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$20.00	87.30%	94
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$20.00	87.67%	94
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$20.00	87.35%	94
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$20.00	87.46%	94

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.1%gold 0.0%legendary 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%epic 0.1%red 5.4%Covert 0.4%Ancient 2.7%classified 32.9%restricted 4.1%pink 9.6%blue 5.9%#87c7ff 7.2%violet 7.9%Mythical 4.3%light blue 10.5%best hit $737 (36.84x)