ROYAL

A case on Key-Drop (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$11.84

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $10.36 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.30%

26.1K openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.96%±3.523,796 openings

7 days

83.70%±1.4921.4K openings

30 days

84.30%±1.3626.1K openings

since tracking started

84.30%±1.3626.1K openings

80.0%84.0%88.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.45% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.95% – 85.66%, 26,098 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,796	83.96%±3.52	−1.9σ	odds
7d	21.4K	83.70%±1.49	−4.9σ	odds
30d	26.1K	84.30%±1.36	−4.5σ	odds
All	26.1K	84.30%±1.36	−4.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$572	0.6%	1	2.6	0.38×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 5,000	$312	0.6%	0	5.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 2,000	$137	0.7%	6	13.1	0.46×
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 2,000	$132	0.6%	6	13.1	0.46×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$82.85	0.2%	3	5.2	0.57×
★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$64.79	0.6%	28	26.1	1.07×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$58.32	0.2%	6	7.8	0.77×
★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 833	$55.37	0.6%	35	31.4	1.12×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$54.81	0.2%	5	10.5	0.48×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$54.51	0.2%	3	7.8	0.38×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$54.15	0.2%	6	10.5	0.57×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$53.32	0.2%	7	10.5	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 769	$50.31	0.6%	29	34.0	0.85×
USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 714	$49.30	0.7%	35	36.6	0.96×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$43.82	3.3%	84	201.2	0.42×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 145	$42.18	2.8%	112	180.3	0.62×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 141	$41.68	2.9%	102	185.5	0.55×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 139	$41.37	2.9%	143	188.1	0.76×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$33.96	3.9%	217	310.9	0.70×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$33.60	2.6%	139	209.0	0.66×
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$29.96	2.9%	197	261.3	0.75×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 61	$29.03	4.6%	281	425.9	0.66×
AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 93	$28.91	3.0%	188	282.2	0.67×
P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$21.86	4.0%	342	491.2	0.70×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$19.44	4.1%	409	564.4	0.72×
P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 41	$19.19	4.5%	431	637.5	0.68×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$17.89	4.4%	417	666.3	0.63×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 41	$15.31	3.6%	345	642.7	0.54×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$15.28	3.6%	386	645.4	0.60×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$14.83	3.8%	367	684.6	0.54×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 51	$13.55	2.6%	309	514.7	0.60×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 44	$12.59	2.8%	362	595.7	0.61×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$12.38	2.8%	358	616.6	0.58×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 41	$12.18	2.9%	352	637.5	0.55×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 26	$10.78	4.0%	590	992.9	0.59×
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$10.24	3.7%	686	979.8	0.70×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 21	$4.15	1.9%	899	1243.7	0.72×
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	10.5%	$4.11	4.2%	2,827	2753.9	1.03×
Sticker \| Taste Buddysticker · violet	10.7%	$3.96	4.1%	2,975	2795.7	1.06×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 16	$3.44	2.1%	1,017	1617.3	0.63×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	12.5%	$2.67	3.2%	3,525	3271.2	1.08×
P90 \| Scorched (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	12.7%	$2.43	3.0%	3,247	3318.3	0.98×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/royal, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$11.84$58048.96x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerkaina$11.84$2.430.21x2m

M4A4 | Desolate Spaceweapon · pinkkaina$11.84$15.131.28x2m

P90 | Scorched (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerkaina$11.84$2.400.20x3m

P2000 | Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$11.84$3.440.29x3m

Sticker | Taste Buddysticker · violet$11.84$3.930.33x3m

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$11.84$14.911.26x3m

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$11.84$15.291.29x3m

P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$11.84$4.080.34x3m

M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$11.84$11.891.00x3m

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedkaina$11.84$15.291.29x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$11.84	87.50%	42
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$11.84	87.35%	42
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$11.84	87.12%	42
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$11.84	87.38%	42
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$11.84	87.65%	42
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$11.84	87.20%	42
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$11.84	87.48%	42
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$11.84	87.40%	42
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$11.84	87.49%	42
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$11.84	87.31%	42
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$11.84	87.87%	42
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$11.84	87.18%	42
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$11.84	87.51%	42
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$11.84	87.29%	42
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$11.84	87.56%	42
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$11.84	87.04%	42
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$11.84	87.46%	42

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.6%epic 0.0%red 0.8%sunny 0.1%rare 0.1%classified 33.2%pink 27.3%violet 23.2%consumer 12.7%best hit $580 (48.96x)