SNOWFALL

A case on Key-Drop (WILD CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$12.50

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $10.94 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.66%

28.3K openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

35.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.31%±2.514,756 openings

7 days

87.92%±1.1622.5K openings

30 days

87.66%±1.0428.3K openings

since tracking started

87.66%±1.0428.3K openings

86.0%89.3%92.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4,756	89.31%±2.51	+1.3σ	odds
7d	22.5K	87.92%±1.16	+0.2σ	odds
30d	28.3K	87.66%±1.04	−0.3σ	odds
All	28.3K	87.66%±1.04	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$1,300	0.1%	1	0.3	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 50,000	$861	0.2%	0	0.6	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 14,286	$514	0.3%	3	2.0	1.51×
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · gold · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$469	0.4%	3	2.8	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$207	0.4%	4	5.7	0.71×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$153	0.2%	3	4.3	0.71×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$145	0.2%	2	4.3	0.47×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$64.31	0.1%	3	2.8	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$59.97	0.1%	7	2.8	2.47×
USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$58.95	0.2%	2	8.5	0.24×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$53.97	0.0%	5	2.8	1.76×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$50.22	0.0%	4	2.8	1.41×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 417	$48.53	1.1%	47	68.1	0.69×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 244	$38.98	1.5%	78	116.3	0.67×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 217	$36.63	1.5%	98	130.5	0.75×
USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 105	$34.71	3.0%	270	269.5	1.00×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violet	1 in 18	$22.76	11.3%	1,593	1545.9	1.03×
P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$18.09	11.3%	1,786	1945.9	0.92×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 11	$13.38	11.3%	2,451	2629.5	0.93×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 17	$12.10	6.4%	1,701	1648.1	1.03×
P250 \| Vino Primo (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 17	$11.96	6.4%	1,662	1670.8	0.99×
Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 16	$10.13	5.8%	1,818	1787.1	1.02×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 16	$9.72	5.7%	1,891	1815.4	1.04×
Sticker \| Kawaii Tsticker · violet	1 in 15	$8.44	5.2%	1,853	1920.4	0.96×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$7.44	4.8%	2,029	2019.7	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$7.07	4.7%	2,114	2062.2	1.03×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$6.98	4.7%	2,000	2073.6	0.96×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$6.76	4.6%	2,120	2099.1	1.01×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$6.70	4.6%	2,257	2107.6	1.07×
CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 12	$4.82	3.8%	2,445	2416.8	1.01×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/snowfall, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covertEz a rohadt kábító$12.50$1,292103.4x2d

★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$12.50$51941.54x2d

★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldDrapleX | Bloodycase.com$12.50$51441.15x4h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classifieddenis$12.50$6.760.54x7m

Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New)weapon · blueDombik$12.50$7.070.57x20m

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkChnovice$12.50$6.700.54x23m

P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violetnot awp abuser$12.50$18.091.45x23m

★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · gold · Sapphirenot awp abuser$12.50$46937.50x27m

StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓$12.50$13.381.07x27m

P90 | Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violetnot awp abuser$12.50$18.091.45x27m

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classified⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓$12.50$6.760.54x27m

Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$12.50$6.980.56x27m

★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · gold · Sapphirenot awp abuser$12.50$46937.50x27m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$12.50	87.50%	30
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$12.50	87.90%	30
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$12.50	87.93%	30
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$12.50	87.90%	30
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$12.50	87.99%	30
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$12.50	87.85%	30
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$12.50	87.74%	30
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$12.50	87.79%	30
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$12.50	87.82%	30
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$12.50	87.85%	30
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$12.50	87.71%	30
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$12.50	87.93%	30
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$12.50	87.86%	30
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$12.50	88.01%	30
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$12.50	87.79%	30
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$12.50	87.88%	30
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$12.50	87.82%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.2%gold 0.0%classified 7.4%restricted 0.9%violet 34.2%blue 32.9%pink 14.7%gray 8.5%best hit $1,292 (103.4x)