STRANGE

A case on Key-Drop (HOLO CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$299.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $261.62 from 64 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.45%

1,667 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.61%±10.62271 openings

7 days

90.26%±5.111,217 openings

30 days

89.45%±4.371,667 openings

since tracking started

89.45%±4.371,667 openings

75.5%86.8%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	271	86.61%±10.6	−0.2σ	odds
7d	1,217	90.26%±5.11	+1.0σ	odds
30d	1,667	89.45%±4.37	+0.8σ	odds
All	1,667	89.45%±4.37	+0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values64 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,667 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$7,950	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 2,000	$4,046	0.8%	2	0.8	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,429	$2,737	0.7%	2	1.2	1.71×
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$2,232	0.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$1,943	0.2%	0	0.5	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,111	$1,885	0.6%	1	1.5	0.67×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,442	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,111	$1,141	0.4%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 95	$1,119	4.5%	12	17.5	0.69×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 250	$1,052	1.6%	5	6.7	0.75×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 526	$1,010	0.7%	0	3.2	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 79	$936	4.5%	30	21.0	1.43×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 141	$787	2.1%	13	11.8	1.10×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 286	$748	1.0%	4	5.8	0.69×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 128	$711	2.1%	7	13.0	0.54×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 270	$690	1.0%	4	6.2	0.65×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · rare	1 in 244	$657	1.0%	5	6.8	0.73×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 59	$626	4.0%	35	28.2	1.24×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 233	$602	1.0%	7	7.2	0.98×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 84	$577	2.6%	13	19.8	0.66×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 52	$550	4.0%	43	32.0	1.34×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 44	$467	4.1%	47	37.8	1.24×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 435	$464	0.4%	0	3.8	0.00×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$411	2.3%	21	24.8	0.85×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 233	$406	0.7%	3	7.2	0.42×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$405	1.2%	9	13.3	0.67×
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 21	$366	6.6%	71	78.5	0.90×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$365	2.6%	16	31.7	0.51×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 21	$360	6.6%	63	79.8	0.79×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 526	$341	0.2%	1	3.2	0.32×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	14.8%	$278	15.7%	63	247.2	0.25×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$273	6.1%	45	96.7	0.47×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 41	$237	2.2%	246	40.2	6.12×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 72	$225	1.2%	18	23.0	0.78×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$214	0.7%	6	15.0	0.40×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 169	$209	0.5%	5	9.8	0.51×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 169	$207	0.5%	7	9.8	0.71×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 34	$173	1.9%	48	48.5	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 125	$172	0.5%	11	13.3	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 417	$170	0.2%	6	4.0	1.50×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$164	0.9%	23	23.2	0.99×
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 32	$153	1.8%	52	52.3	0.99×
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 31	$145	1.8%	62	54.0	1.15×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 88	$126	0.5%	14	19.0	0.74×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 417	$124	0.1%	2	4.0	0.50×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 23	$87.93	1.5%	70	73.0	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 143	$86.28	0.2%	9	11.7	0.77×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 233	$82.88	0.1%	7	7.2	0.98×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 35	$70.80	0.8%	31	47.8	0.65×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 97	$65.37	0.3%	9	17.2	0.52×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 75	$57.86	0.3%	15	22.3	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 69	$54.95	0.3%	14	24.2	0.58×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 71	$53.97	0.3%	18	23.5	0.77×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 60	$50.31	0.3%	21	27.8	0.75×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$50.22	0.3%	15	26.3	0.57×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$48.53	0.3%	28	27.8	1.01×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 87	$44.80	0.2%	9	19.2	0.47×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 68	$40.27	0.2%	20	24.5	0.82×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 61	$37.60	0.2%	23	27.3	0.84×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 56	$35.42	0.2%	22	30.0	0.73×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 60	$35.40	0.2%	16	28.0	0.57×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 49	$32.83	0.3%	29	34.0	0.85×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 49	$30.97	0.2%	23	33.8	0.68×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 48	$30.97	0.2%	26	34.7	0.75×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/strange, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendarylxya$299$4,11213.75x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$299$2,7839.31x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$299$2,7579.22x1d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$299$1,8856.31x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$299$1,1203.75x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertCODE LUKEN$299$1,1203.75x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertDaemonCS_YT$299$1,1193.74x16h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertPolesz$299$9363.13x21m

AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$299$53.670.18x21m

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertPolesz$299$9303.11x21m

AK-47 | Vulcanweapon · red⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓$299$2410.81x26m

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$299$4111.38x29m

AK-47 | Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓$299$1660.55x29m

M4A1-S | Printstreamweapon · redPolesz$299$2590.87x44m

AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$299$3961.32x45m

M4A1-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · redPolesz$299$1610.54x45m

M4A1-S | Printstreamweapon · redLESQUEDOWN$299$2590.87x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$299	87.50%	64
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$299	87.67%	64
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$299	87.94%	64
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$299	87.86%	64
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$299	87.99%	64
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$299	87.78%	64
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$299	87.72%	64
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$299	88.02%	64
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$299	87.89%	64
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$299	87.77%	64
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$299	87.71%	64
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$299	87.76%	64
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$299	87.77%	64
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$299	87.61%	64
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$299	87.71%	64
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$299	87.81%	64
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$299	87.58%	64

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 43.5%legendary 6.8%classified 0.1%extraordinary 4.5%gold 22.9%rare 4.4%red 14.0%epic 0.2%Ancient 3.6%best hit $4,112 (13.75x)