SUNBLAST

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$18.67

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $16.34 from 107 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.57%

1,522 openings, odds method

Variance

4.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

62.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

71.82%±33.34161 openings

7 days

85.70%±12.661,295 openings

30 days

85.57%±11.741,522 openings

since tracking started

85.57%±11.741,522 openings

38.0%72.0%106.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	161	71.82%±33.3	−0.9σ	odds
7d	1,295	85.70%±12.7	−0.3σ	odds
30d	1,522	85.57%±11.7	−0.3σ	odds
All	1,522	85.57%±11.7	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values107 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,522 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14,286	$2,677	1.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 8,333	$1,328	1.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 16,667	$876	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 16,667	$858	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33,333	$774	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 11,111	$727	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,846	$589	0.9%	2	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$533	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 25,000	$492	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$440	0.3%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$401	0.3%	0	0.2	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$370	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 9,091	$366	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 7,143	$360	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 6,667	$311	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$289	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 4,545	$287	0.4%	1	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$285	0.4%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$246	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 4,167	$240	0.4%	0	0.4	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$239	0.4%	1	0.4	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 7,692	$229	0.2%	0	0.2	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$222	0.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare	1 in 5,556	$218	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 4,167	$209	0.3%	1	0.4	—
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 4,167	$207	0.3%	0	0.4	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 1,282	$193	0.9%	4	1.2	3.37×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$189	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,235	$188	0.9%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 3,226	$180	0.3%	0	0.5	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,448	$168	0.3%	0	0.4	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,125	$162	0.3%	0	0.5	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,846	$157	0.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,846	$155	0.2%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$154	0.2%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$146	0.2%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$144	0.2%	1	0.4	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,030	$139	0.3%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$133	0.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 820	$124	0.9%	3	1.9	1.62×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$112	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$111	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,326	$109	0.3%	0	0.7	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 2,128	$105	0.3%	1	0.7	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 1,587	$89.57	0.3%	1	1.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$89.33	0.2%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$84.18	0.2%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,439	$82.41	0.2%	1	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 2,083	$76.89	0.2%	0	0.7	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,818	$71.65	0.2%	0	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 149	$63.53	2.6%	5	10.2	0.49×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 122	$59.95	3.0%	5	12.5	0.40×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 131	$56.08	2.6%	1	11.6	0.09×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$48.05	3.8%	11	19.5	0.56×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 97	$46.43	2.9%	6	15.6	0.38×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$46.01	2.9%	11	15.9	0.69×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 95	$43.99	2.8%	17	16.0	1.06×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 89	$39.83	2.8%	14	17.2	0.81×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 47	$37.64	4.9%	28	32.5	0.86×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$37.37	2.9%	23	19.5	1.18×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$37.31	3.3%	24	22.2	1.08×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$36.92	3.4%	13	22.7	0.57×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 45	$36.92	5.0%	36	33.8	1.07×
P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 134	$32.77	1.5%	11	11.3	0.97×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$31.14	3.5%	20	28.1	0.71×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified	17.7%	$23.95	25.9%	173	269.1	0.64×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 450	$15.48	0.2%	2	3.4	0.59×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 151	$14.25	0.6%	9	10.1	0.89×
P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 142	$13.65	0.6%	13	10.7	1.21×
P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 138	$13.40	0.6%	4	11.0	0.36×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,299	$12.31	0.1%	1	1.2	0.85×
Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 746	$8.93	0.1%	2	2.0	0.98×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 251	$8.74	0.2%	3	6.1	0.50×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 175	$8.48	0.3%	6	8.7	0.69×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 538	$7.95	0.1%	2	2.8	0.71×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 129	$6.93	0.3%	4	11.8	0.34×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 123	$6.70	0.3%	8	12.4	0.65×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 122	$6.67	0.3%	10	12.5	0.80×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$4.74	0.3%	16	15.2	1.06×
Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 263	$4.45	0.1%	5	5.8	0.86×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 83	$4.18	0.3%	15	18.3	0.82×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	1 in 76	$3.94	0.3%	14	20.0	0.70×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 207	$3.59	0.1%	3	7.4	0.41×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 160	$3.00	0.1%	2	9.5	0.21×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 119	$2.90	0.1%	5	12.8	0.39×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 86	$2.82	0.2%	12	17.7	0.68×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 130	$2.52	0.1%	15	11.7	1.28×
Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 67	$1.78	0.2%	10	22.8	0.44×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 74	$1.72	0.1%	18	20.7	0.87×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 67	$1.62	0.1%	10	22.6	0.44×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 64	$1.57	0.1%	16	23.7	0.67×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 70	$1.56	0.1%	14	21.7	0.64×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 62	$1.54	0.2%	16	24.4	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 42	$1.45	0.2%	29	36.1	0.80×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 49	$1.37	0.2%	17	31.1	0.55×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 49	$1.37	0.2%	25	30.8	0.81×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 48	$1.36	0.2%	24	31.5	0.76×
Negev \| Power Loader (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$1.28	0.2%	25	37.5	0.67×
Negev \| Power Loader (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 39	$1.25	0.2%	20	38.8	0.52×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 42	$1.22	0.2%	27	36.6	0.74×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 48	$1.22	0.2%	21	31.4	0.67×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$1.22	0.2%	27	31.4	0.86×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$1.19	0.2%	18	38.1	0.47×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$1.15	0.2%	39	40.5	0.96×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$1.12	0.2%	28	35.8	0.78×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$1.03	0.3%	43	60.4	0.71×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.80	0.4%	77	117.3	0.66×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/sunblast, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Jet Set (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedgukawa CSGOSKINS$18.67$59431.80x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Electrumweapon · violetAlaneKK$18.67$1.550.08x2h

M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)weapon · violetAlaneKK$18.67$1.030.06x2h

Negev | Power Loader (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet$18.67$1.120.06x2h

M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)weapon · violet$18.67$1.030.06x2h

AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$18.67$1.120.06x2h

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$18.67$1.310.07x2h

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$18.67$1.180.06x2h

AWP | Pit Viperweapon · violetdeadtree$18.67$1.250.07x7h

AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricteddeadtree$18.67$1.560.08x7h

M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff$18.67$1.450.08x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$18.67	87.50%	107
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$18.67	87.08%	107
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$18.67	87.39%	107
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$18.67	87.52%	107
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$18.67	87.73%	107
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$18.67	87.59%	107
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$18.67	86.94%	107
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$18.67	87.80%	107
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$18.67	87.20%	107
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$18.67	87.59%	107
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$18.67	87.93%	107
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$18.67	87.98%	107
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$18.67	87.66%	107
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$18.67	87.32%	107
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$18.67	87.55%	107
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$18.67	87.95%	107
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$18.67	87.00%	107
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$18.67	87.57%	107

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.3%covert 12.3%gold 0.1%classified 20.8%rare 0.0%Immortal 0.1%red 2.3%Ancient 4.3%#8847ff 4.7%Legendary 2.7%pink 11.7%Mythical 1.0%violet 15.6%restricted 14.4%uncommon 0.8%Rare 1.2%blue 7.7%best hit $594 (31.80x)