SUPERNATURAL

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$20.00

Advertised RTP

87.57%

EV $17.51 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.02%

85.9K openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

86.84%±1.2258.9K openings

30 days

87.02%±1.0185.9K openings

since tracking started

87.02%±1.0185.9K openings

85.0%86.8%88.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	58.9K	86.84%±1.22	−1.1σ	odds
30d	85.9K	87.02%±1.01	−1.0σ	odds
All	85.9K	87.02%±1.01	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 86.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 33,333	$2,038	0.3%	3	2.6	1.16×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$1,550	0.6%	12	6.0	1.99×
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$1,373	0.8%	7	8.6	0.81×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$1,125	0.6%	11	8.6	1.28×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$617	0.7%	12	17.2	0.70×
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$334	0.6%	39	25.8	1.51×
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$209	0.4%	22	25.8	0.85×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 2,500	$158	0.4%	29	34.5	0.84×
★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 667	$109	0.9%	62	129.2	0.48×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 286	$92.02	1.8%	225	301.6	0.75×
★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 909	$78.93	0.5%	78	94.8	0.82×
★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 909	$77.41	0.5%	64	94.8	0.68×
★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 833	$74.69	0.5%	75	103.4	0.73×
Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 30	$53.83	10.3%	2,489	2886.5	0.86×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 88	$47.55	3.1%	737	982.3	0.75×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 98	$42.27	2.5%	651	878.9	0.74×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 96	$41.65	2.5%	646	896.1	0.72×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 92	$40.95	2.5%	696	939.2	0.74×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 27	$35.05	7.5%	3,139	3222.6	0.97×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 43	$33.48	4.4%	1,335	1981.8	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 87	$31.14	2.0%	663	990.9	0.67×
MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 23	$24.64	6.2%	3,687	3817.1	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 61	$23.60	2.2%	987	1421.7	0.69×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 57	$22.85	2.3%	898	1516.5	0.59×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violet	1 in 21	$22.60	6.2%	3,984	4153.2	0.96×
P90 \| Virus (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$20.70	6.2%	4,290	4540.9	0.94×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 20	$13.85	3.9%	4,241	4282.4	0.99×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 19	$12.10	3.6%	4,756	4506.4	1.06×
XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 19	$12.08	3.6%	4,638	4506.4	1.03×
Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 40	$11.75	1.7%	1,440	2171.4	0.66×
Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 19	$11.63	3.5%	4,274	4566.7	0.94×
Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 34	$10.36	1.8%	1,735	2567.7	0.68×
Sticker \| Lucassticker · pink	1 in 16	$7.97	2.8%	5,404	5368.1	1.01×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 16	$7.50	2.7%	5,694	5480.1	1.04×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 15	$7.01	2.6%	5,887	5592.1	1.05×
Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 15	$6.83	2.6%	5,707	5652.4	1.01×
Sticker \| Kawaii CTsticker · violet	1 in 14	$5.95	2.4%	6,224	5997.1	1.04×
UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$5.04	2.1%	6,587	6393.4	1.03×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/supernatural, 9 Nov, 08:09 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldTHIAGOPEEK$20.00$2,060103.0x5d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$20.00$2,038101.9x2d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emeraldhh =DDDDDDD$20.00$2,000100.0x4d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covertGunn.E$20.00$1,57978.94x4d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$20.00$1,57378.66x3d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$20.00$1,56578.27x5d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$20.00$1,55477.69x7d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$20.00$1,55077.50x2d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covertNO NAME$20.00$1,41970.94x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkandreiJR1$20.00$7.010.35x2d

Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · blue$20.00$6.830.34x2d

Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkandreiJR1$20.00$7.010.35x2d

Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blueandreiJR1$20.00$12.100.61x2d

Sticker | Lucassticker · pink$20.00$7.970.40x2d

Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue$20.00$12.100.61x2d

Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blueandreiJR1$20.00$12.100.61x2d

AWP | Hyper Beastweapon · redJcob7$20.00$41.612.08x2d

Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Factory New)weapon · light bluebistew$20.00$11.630.58x2d

AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · redJcob7$20.00$41.652.08x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.57%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$20.00	87.57%	38
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$20.00	87.51%	38
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$20.00	87.39%	38
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$20.00	87.62%	38
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$20.00	87.51%	38
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$20.00	87.39%	38
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$20.00	87.64%	38
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$20.00	87.94%	38
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$20.00	87.42%	38
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$20.00	87.60%	38
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$20.00	87.51%	38
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$20.00	87.50%	38
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$20.00	87.68%	38

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.4%gold 0.3%extraordinary 0.1%violet 29.8%blue 36.7%red 4.5%pink 19.4%classified 1.7%light blue 5.3%best hit $2,060 (103.0x)