TEETH

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$0.56

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $0.49 from 77 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.42%

16.1K openings, odds method

Variance

4.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

81.44%±8.982,200 openings

7 days

86.08%±3.5813.6K openings

30 days

85.42%±3.2716.1K openings

since tracking started

85.42%±3.2716.1K openings

72.0%81.5%91.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,200	81.44%±8.98	−1.4σ	odds
7d	13.6K	86.08%±3.58	−0.9σ	odds
30d	16.1K	85.42%±3.27	−1.5σ	odds
All	16.1K	85.42%±3.27	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values77 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$214	0.9%	1	0.3	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$16.34	0.1%	0	0.6	—
P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$14.83	0.5%	2	2.6	0.77×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 20,000	$14.65	0.1%	0	0.8	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 20,000	$14.30	0.1%	0	0.8	—
Galil AR \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 5,882	$13.92	0.5%	2	2.7	0.73×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 5,556	$13.67	0.5%	2	2.9	0.69×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 16,667	$13.63	0.2%	0	1.0	—
SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$10.24	0.5%	3	3.7	0.81×
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 3,125	$7.19	0.5%	1	5.2	0.19×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 6,667	$5.81	0.2%	1	2.4	0.41×
FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,613	$3.71	0.5%	10	10.0	1.00×
MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,846	$3.53	0.2%	3	4.2	0.71×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 3,030	$3.22	0.2%	7	5.3	1.31×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,174	$3.20	0.3%	5	7.4	0.67×
AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,128	$2.69	0.3%	4	7.6	0.53×
MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,639	$2.27	0.3%	4	9.9	0.41×
MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 5,263	$2.10	0.1%	2	3.1	0.65×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 246	$1.66	1.4%	28	65.6	0.43×
P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 77	$1.63	4.3%	180	210.6	0.85×
P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 75	$1.59	4.3%	148	215.9	0.69×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 215	$1.55	1.5%	45	75.3	0.60×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 209	$1.53	1.5%	43	77.2	0.56×
P2000 \| Pulse (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 272	$1.49	1.1%	26	59.5	0.44×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 299	$1.37	0.9%	36	54.1	0.67×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 294	$1.37	1.0%	37	54.9	0.67×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 294	$1.36	0.9%	31	54.9	0.56×
MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 336	$1.33	0.8%	39	48.2	0.81×
MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 321	$1.30	0.8%	29	50.4	0.58×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 257	$1.28	1.0%	38	62.9	0.60×
MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 306	$1.27	0.8%	25	52.8	0.47×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 253	$1.27	1.0%	33	63.8	0.52×
AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 469	$1.27	0.6%	30	34.4	0.87×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 85	$1.24	3.0%	196	190.5	1.03×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 257	$1.22	1.0%	53	62.9	0.84×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 257	$1.22	1.0%	39	62.9	0.62×
P2000 \| Pulse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 252	$1.19	1.0%	25	64.2	0.39×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 211	$1.15	1.1%	47	76.6	0.61×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 217	$1.12	1.1%	48	74.5	0.64×
MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 75	$1.09	3.0%	239	216.7	1.10×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 161	$1.00	1.3%	44	100.7	0.44×
P2000 \| Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 148	$0.91	1.3%	82	109.4	0.75×
AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare	1 in 241	$0.91	0.8%	49	67.1	0.73×
AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 211	$0.85	0.8%	56	76.8	0.73×
AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 62	$0.83	2.7%	123	261.5	0.47×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 27	$0.74	5.6%	358	596.8	0.60×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 402	$0.62	0.3%	25	40.2	0.62×
P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 85	$0.60	1.4%	94	190.4	0.49×
Nova \| Ranger (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 25	$0.59	4.9%	387	651.2	0.59×
Nova \| Ranger (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 25	$0.59	4.9%	394	651.2	0.61×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$0.51	4.1%	583	639.7	0.91×
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 95	$0.47	1.0%	96	170.5	0.56×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 24	$0.45	3.8%	648	674.6	0.96×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 48	$0.45	1.9%	162	333.5	0.49×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 47	$0.44	1.9%	223	344.2	0.65×
Nova \| Wild Six (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$0.44	1.8%	204	332.6	0.61×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 49	$0.44	1.8%	210	332.6	0.63×
Nova \| Wild Six (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 46	$0.42	1.9%	179	355.0	0.50×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 46	$0.42	1.9%	211	355.0	0.59×
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 137	$0.39	0.6%	65	118.3	0.55×
P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 85	$0.35	0.8%	125	190.0	0.66×
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$0.33	1.2%	173	279.6	0.62×
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 108	$0.33	0.6%	98	149.5	0.66×
P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 75	$0.32	0.9%	114	215.4	0.53×
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$0.32	1.2%	176	291.8	0.60×
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 104	$0.32	0.6%	112	155.9	0.72×
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 95	$0.30	0.6%	110	170.6	0.64×
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 90	$0.29	0.7%	113	179.0	0.63×
P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 62	$0.28	0.9%	141	259.7	0.54×
Negev \| Bulkhead (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 19	$0.26	2.8%	822	840.3	0.98×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 116	$0.15	0.3%	71	139.8	0.51×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 15	$0.14	1.9%	1,188	1076.4	1.10×
UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.09	1.5%	1,288	1284.3	1.00×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 48	$0.08	0.3%	296	336.9	0.88×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 48	$0.08	0.3%	199	336.9	0.59×
SCAR-20 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 12	$0.08	1.4%	1,368	1346.2	1.02×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 32	$0.06	0.4%	261	506.3	0.52×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/teeth, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$0.56$208371.3x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAG-7 | Cobalt Coreweapon · blueSaba$0.56$0.781.39x7m

P2000 | Pulseweapon · blueSaba$0.56$1.142.04x7m

Nova | Wild Sixweapon · violetSaba$0.56$0.430.77x7m

SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · light blueSaba$0.56$0.080.14x8m

P2000 | Gnarledweapon · milspecSaba$0.56$0.100.18x8m

UMP-45 | Oscillatorweapon · blueSaba$0.56$0.320.57x8m

Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violetKhUkr$0.56$0.450.80x11m

Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)weapon · bluepablogilt012$0.56$0.140.25x13m

UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue♛DenniX♛$0.56$0.090.16x19m

P2000 | Gnarledweapon · milspecMILTIX$0.56$0.100.18x19m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$0.56	87.50%	77
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$0.56	88.55%	77
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$0.56	88.17%	77
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.56	88.33%	77
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$0.56	88.76%	77
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.56	87.86%	77
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$0.56	85.70%	77
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$0.56	86.61%	77
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$0.56	87.64%	77
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$0.56	88.50%	77
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$0.56	88.30%	77
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$0.56	89.04%	77
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.56	88.35%	77
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0.56	87.51%	77
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$0.56	88.38%	77
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$0.56	87.24%	77
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$0.56	88.35%	77

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.2%covert 0.0%classified 0.0%pink 0.0%Industrial Grade 0.0%violet 14.6%Mythical 2.7%restricted 11.4%#8847ff 5.5%Legendary 1.3%blue 25.7%Rare 1.5%mil spec 6.2%#4b69ff 9.6%milspec 5.6%Mil Spec Grade 1.0%industrial 5.2%light blue 8.3%best hit $208 (371.3x)