USP-S

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$1.19

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $1.04 from 99 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.84%

30.7K openings, odds method

Variance

3.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78.73%±6.373,594 openings

7 days

82.47%±2.3727K openings

30 days

82.84%±2.2330.7K openings

since tracking started

82.84%±2.2330.7K openings

71.5%79.8%88.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.34% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.61% – 85.07%, 30,727 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,594	78.73%±6.37	−2.7σ	odds
7d	27K	82.47%±2.37	−4.0σ	odds
30d	30.7K	82.84%±2.23	−4.0σ	odds
All	30.7K	82.84%±2.23	−4.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values99 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$301	0.6%	0	0.6	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$134	0.4%	1	0.9	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$81.04	0.4%	2	1.5	1.30×
USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20,000	$79.31	0.4%	2	1.5	1.30×
USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$58.95	0.4%	3	2.2	1.39×
USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$49.30	0.4%	0	2.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$46.68	0.4%	2	2.5	0.81×
USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$42.85	0.4%	5	2.8	1.80×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 11,111	$40.50	0.4%	2	2.8	0.72×
USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$36.35	0.3%	3	3.1	0.97×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50,000	$36.05	0.1%	0	0.6	—
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 25,000	$31.14	0.1%	1	1.2	0.81×
USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$30.58	0.4%	2	3.7	0.54×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$23.44	0.3%	5	4.6	1.08×
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 16,667	$22.92	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 14,286	$22.06	0.1%	0	2.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,882	$20.36	0.3%	3	5.2	0.57×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33,333	$16.13	0.0%	0	0.9	—
USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11,111	$14.83	0.1%	0	2.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 4,000	$14.16	0.3%	8	7.7	1.04×
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 25,000	$13.20	0.1%	1	1.2	0.81×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$8.07	0.1%	0	2.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 3,448	$7.86	0.2%	6	8.9	0.67×
USP-S \| Para Green (Field-Tested)weapon · 2	1 in 2,083	$7.16	0.3%	27	14.8	1.83×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 2,083	$7.11	0.3%	9	14.8	0.61×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,882	$6.81	0.1%	2	5.2	0.38×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 11,111	$6.69	0.1%	1	2.8	0.36×
USP-S \| 27 (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 50,000	$5.74	0.0%	0	0.6	—
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,556	$5.30	0.1%	3	5.5	0.54×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,348	$4.74	0.1%	3	7.1	0.42×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,000	$4.51	0.1%	14	7.7	1.82×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 415	$4.18	1.0%	19	74.2	0.26×
USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,857	$4.18	0.1%	201	10.8	18.65×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 431	$4.15	0.9%	30	71.4	0.42×
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 407	$4.14	1.0%	41	75.7	0.54×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 395	$4.08	1.0%	32	77.9	0.41×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 394	$3.97	1.0%	34	78.2	0.43×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 392	$3.96	1.0%	56	78.5	0.71×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 165	$3.61	2.1%	76	186.6	0.41×
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 213	$3.34	1.5%	79	144.7	0.55×
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 205	$3.28	1.5%	64	149.9	0.43×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 800	$3.23	0.4%	81	38.5	2.10×
USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 184	$3.19	1.7%	84	167.2	0.50×
USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 165	$3.02	1.8%	100	186.9	0.54×
USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 97	$2.97	2.9%	62	316.5	0.20×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 45	$2.88	6.1%	166	682.6	0.24×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 39	$2.63	6.5%	502	788.2	0.64×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 61	$2.60	4.1%	251	505.8	0.50×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 43	$2.16	4.8%	349	717.4	0.49×
USP-S \| Torque (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 72	$1.63	2.2%	211	427.0	0.49×
USP-S \| Night Ops (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 148	$1.60	1.0%	140	207.8	0.67×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 123	$1.53	1.2%	134	250.0	0.54×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 46	$1.34	2.8%	338	666.9	0.51×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 32	$1.28	3.8%	507	959.0	0.53×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 125	$1.28	1.0%	122	246.0	0.50×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 32	$1.27	3.9%	407	974.1	0.42×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 36	$1.21	3.2%	311	849.1	0.37×
USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 112	$1.18	1.0%	258	275.6	0.94×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 129	$1.18	0.9%	164	238.0	0.69×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 351	$1.16	0.3%	63	87.7	0.72×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 76	$1.13	1.4%	237	405.5	0.58×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 148	$1.06	0.7%	129	207.5	0.62×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 71	$0.91	1.2%	237	434.1	0.55×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 144	$0.88	0.6%	110	214.3	0.51×
USP-S \| Torque (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 71	$0.85	1.2%	250	435.7	0.57×
USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 69	$0.84	1.2%	268	443.0	0.60×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 61	$0.82	1.3%	270	502.5	0.54×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 63	$0.81	1.2%	256	492.0	0.52×
USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.79	0.8%	176	308.8	0.57×
USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$0.79	0.8%	163	308.8	0.53×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 60	$0.79	1.3%	244	509.5	0.48×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$0.68	0.8%	221	386.1	0.57×
USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 77	$0.66	0.8%	213	397.5	0.54×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 77	$0.66	0.8%	196	402.4	0.49×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 77	$0.66	0.8%	217	402.4	0.54×
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 66	$0.59	0.9%	275	464.9	0.59×
USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 75	$0.57	0.7%	207	411.6	0.50×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$0.57	0.9%	253	504.9	0.50×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 61	$0.57	0.9%	276	504.9	0.55×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 130	$0.57	0.4%	116	237.1	0.49×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 76	$0.56	0.7%	210	403.0	0.52×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 108	$0.55	0.5%	164	284.8	0.58×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$0.53	0.9%	319	558.8	0.57×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 71	$0.53	0.7%	199	435.3	0.46×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$0.51	0.7%	280	459.4	0.61×
USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 100	$0.47	0.5%	160	307.0	0.52×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 74	$0.42	0.5%	235	415.0	0.57×
USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 45	$0.36	0.8%	365	679.8	0.54×
USP-S \| 27 (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 66	$0.35	0.5%	243	463.7	0.52×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 57	$0.35	0.6%	287	535.7	0.54×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 55	$0.34	0.6%	303	557.9	0.54×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 58	$0.32	0.5%	289	531.7	0.54×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 58	$0.32	0.5%	336	531.7	0.63×
USP-S \| 27 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 51	$0.29	0.5%	351	603.4	0.58×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.29	0.6%	381	610.2	0.62×
USP-S \| 27 (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 44	$0.26	0.6%	398	703.2	0.57×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$0.26	1.5%	1,027	1864.8	0.55×
USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 21	$0.21	0.9%	790	1445.8	0.55×
USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 17	$0.20	1.1%	982	1769.1	0.56×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/usp-s, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$1.19$134112.9x1d

USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$1.19$79.2866.62x7d

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert꧁ঔৣ☬✞Ibalgin1200✞$1.19$77.5565.17x3d

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covertZERO$1.19$77.5465.16x2d

USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$1.19$77.1864.86x4d

USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedZERO$1.19$60.0250.44x2d

USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$1.19$60.0250.44x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | 27weapon · blueelSimione$1.19$0.320.27x5m

USP-S | Black Lotusweapon · blueelSimione$1.19$1.541.29x5m

USP-S | Lead Conduitweapon · blueelSimione$1.19$1.531.29x5m

USP-S | Alpine Camoweapon · blueelSimione$1.19$0.500.42x5m

USP-S | Tropical Breezeweapon · blueelSimione$1.19$0.380.32x5m

USP-S | Royal Guardweapon · violetelSimione$1.19$1.050.88x5m

USP-S | Lead Conduitweapon · blueelSimione$1.19$1.531.29x5m

USP-S | Royal Guardweapon · violetelSimione$1.19$1.050.88x5m

USP-S | Bleeding Edgeweapon · restrictedelSimione$1.19$1.281.08x5m

USP-S | Torqueweapon · blueelSimione$1.19$1.120.94x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$1.19	87.50%	99
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$1.19	87.01%	99
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$1.19	87.47%	99
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$1.19	86.98%	99
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$1.19	86.90%	99
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.19	87.79%	99
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$1.19	87.45%	99
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$1.19	87.28%	99
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$1.19	86.91%	99
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$1.19	87.83%	99
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$1.19	87.65%	99
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$1.19	87.28%	99
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$1.19	87.42%	99
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$1.19	87.59%	99
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$1.19	87.16%	99
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$1.19	86.84%	99
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1.19	88.09%	99

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 0.0%classified 0.8%covert 0.0%restricted 11.5%red 0.0%mil spec 20.7%pink 0.5%industrial 1.1%Rare 13.0%#4b69ff 8.7%blue 19.8%Classified 0.3%Mythical 6.9%violet 1.9%#8847ff 0.6%Restricted 2.3%uncommon 4.8%Uncommon 1.3%light blue 5.7%best hit $134 (112.9x)