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Case Battles$2,5921.60xDice$2,4432.00xMines$1,5431.29xWaylanders Forge$1,13225.07xHearts of Venus$41.61124.2xLife and Death Boosted$74.18123.6xFruit Fall$1,5247.62xKeno$1,9668.00xMines$1,5431.29xWild Bounty Showdown$3,04060.80xDice$1,5003.00xKeno$1,2331.11xDisturbed$132132.0xSweet Bonanza 2500$3,416711.6xGates of Olympus Super Scatter$889351.2xWaylanders Forge$1,60340.04xBark Boss Bonanza$5,0532.50xMines$17.1K1.71xHigh Elf$2,35716.76xMines$1,5431.29xKeno$1,4551.31xRise of Merlin$528105.5xGates of Olympus 2500$2,6371.89xLotus Sic Bo$4,0042.00x

VISION

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price
$24.69
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $21.60 from 77 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.93%
1,935 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
22.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
81.02%±13.58357 openings
7 days
85.99%±6.141,765 openings
30 days
86.93%±5.861,935 openings
since tracking started
86.93%±5.861,935 openings
67.0%81.3%95.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h35781.02%±13.6−0.9σodds
7d1,76585.99%±6.14−0.5σodds
30d1,93586.93%±5.86−0.2σodds
All1,93586.93%±5.86−0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values77 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,935 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 10,000$2,0030.9%00.2—
AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$6090.6%00.4—
★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 3,333$4810.7%00.6—
★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 1,667$2410.7%21.21.72×
P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$2270.6%01.20.00×
Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$2230.2%00.4—
★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,250$1820.7%11.50.65×
Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 3,333$1520.2%00.6—
AK-47 | The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$1350.3%01.0—
Galil AR | Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$1320.2%10.8—
AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$1290.4%21.21.72×
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$1220.3%01.20.00×
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,667$1140.3%11.20.86×
★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 105$89.303.9%2318.41.25×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 476$83.050.8%34.10.74×
★ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 92$77.993.9%1621.10.76×
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 286$74.911.2%56.80.74×
AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 303$70.801.1%46.40.63×
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 238$67.691.3%68.10.74×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 313$67.481.0%66.20.97×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 357$66.470.9%55.40.92×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 294$64.581.0%76.61.06×
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 208$63.601.4%69.30.65×
M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 125$59.712.2%1015.50.65×
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 143$56.081.8%1313.50.96×
AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 106$54.812.4%1518.20.82×
AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 90$54.242.8%1621.50.74×
AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 101$53.322.4%1819.20.94×
AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 86$53.212.9%3122.41.38×
AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 68$43.823.0%2728.40.95×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 61$38.982.9%1731.50.54×
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 64$37.372.7%4430.41.45×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 15$36.6311.5%98131.40.75×
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 33$34.714.9%3059.40.51×
P250 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 43$32.773.5%2544.90.56×
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 12$31.1412.0%103161.20.64×
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 145$23.670.8%1013.40.75×
M4A4 | Polysoup (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 164$23.100.7%711.80.59×
AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 233$21.680.4%118.31.32×
P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 34$21.632.9%6156.51.08×
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 116$20.760.8%816.60.48×
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 115$20.630.8%1016.80.59×
AWP | The End (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 189$17.680.4%610.30.59×
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 455$15.860.2%34.30.70×
AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 139$15.790.5%1313.90.93×
AWP | Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 127$14.900.5%815.30.52×
AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 127$14.830.5%1115.30.72×
M4A4 | Polysoup (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 79$14.650.9%1724.40.70×
AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 122$14.530.6%915.90.57×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 345$14.350.2%65.61.07×
P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 94$14.250.7%1820.50.88×
P250 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 88$13.650.7%1422.10.63×
P250 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 85$13.400.7%1322.60.57×
AWP | The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 102$12.030.5%1119.00.58×
M4A4 | Polysoup (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 52$11.301.0%3137.00.84×
AWP | The End (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 71$9.600.6%2327.30.84×
AWP | The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 68$9.320.6%1628.60.56×
USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 130$8.070.3%1114.90.74×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 100$6.690.3%2019.31.03×
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 93$5.950.3%1920.70.92×
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 133$5.670.2%1414.50.96×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 118$5.560.2%1516.40.91×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 54$4.550.4%2435.80.67×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 53$4.510.4%3136.40.85×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 52$4.440.4%2837.20.75×
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 55$4.270.4%2635.00.74×
USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 45$4.180.4%3242.80.75×
USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 45$4.140.4%2543.30.58×
USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified1 in 43$4.080.4%2344.50.52×
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 47$3.870.4%3841.00.93×
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 42$3.610.4%2845.90.61×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 44$2.990.3%3744.30.83×
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 35$2.480.3%3154.60.57×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 29$2.330.4%4366.00.65×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 27$2.190.4%5372.90.73×
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 28$2.160.4%4468.10.65×
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 26$2.040.4%5574.90.73×
Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/vision, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Glock-18 | Nuclear Gardenweapon · violetBreen$24.69$2.440.10x
M4A4 | Tooth Fairyweapon · classifiedBreen$24.69$5.230.21x
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revengeweapon · redゼロツー$24.69$38.031.54x
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)weapon · pink$24.69$3.850.16x
AWP | The End (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink$24.69$19.040.77x
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$24.69$2.140.09x
Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink$24.69$4.270.17x
AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified$24.69$23.340.95x
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertゼロツー$24.69$36.611.48x
M4A4 | Polysoupweapon · violetゼロツー$24.69$14.320.58x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC$24.6987.50%77
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC$24.6987.62%77
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC$24.6987.40%77
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC$24.6987.41%77
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC$24.6987.94%77
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC$24.6987.28%77
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC$24.6987.37%77
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC$24.6987.50%77
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC$24.6987.67%77
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC$24.6987.76%77
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC$24.6987.64%77
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC$24.6987.43%77
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC$24.6987.45%77
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$24.6987.32%77
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC$24.6987.91%77
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC$24.6988.46%77
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC$24.6987.37%77
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$24.6987.64%77
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 29.4%rare 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%red 0.2%gold 1.1%classified 18.4%violet 1.5%restricted 20.5%pink 17.2%uncommon 1.3%Legendary 2.2%Mythical 1.9%#d32ee6 1.0%Classified 2.3%#8847ff 2.8%best hit —