USP-S

A case on Skin.club (By type), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$1.12

Advertised RTP

92.33%

EV $1.03 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.50%

112K openings, odds method

Variance

13.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.20%±5.6915.7K openings

7 days

90.45%±2.4196K openings

30 days

91.50%±2.23112K openings

since tracking started

91.50%±2.23112K openings

80.0%87.3%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	15.7K	86.20%±5.69	−2.1σ	odds
7d	96K	90.45%±2.41	−1.9σ	odds
30d	112K	91.50%±2.23	−1.1σ	odds
All	112K	91.50%±2.23	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 112K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$247	2.4%	8	11.2	0.71×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$106	1.0%	86	11.2	7.66×
USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$69.94	0.7%	8	11.2	0.71×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$67.11	1.3%	41	22.5	1.82×
USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$59.73	1.2%	22	22.5	0.98×
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$54.18	1.6%	24	33.7	0.71×
USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$51.90	1.5%	59	33.7	1.75×
USP-S \| Road Rash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,333	$51.12	1.5%	65	33.7	1.93×
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$48.66	1.4%	36	33.7	1.07×
USP-S \| Business Class (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 3,333	$43.79	1.3%	42	33.7	1.25×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$34.23	1.0%	8	33.7	0.24×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$30.27	0.9%	2	33.7	0.06×
USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,667	$28.97	1.7%	38	67.4	0.56×
USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$26.89	1.6%	34	67.4	0.50×
USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,000	$24.92	2.4%	43	112.3	0.38×
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,000	$20.25	2.0%	81	112.3	0.72×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$18.27	1.8%	110	112.3	0.98×
USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$12.72	1.2%	193	112.3	1.72×
USP-S \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,000	$12.54	1.2%	133	112.3	1.18×
USP-S \| Para Green (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,000	$8.67	0.8%	106	112.3	0.94×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$7.16	0.7%	22	112.3	0.20×
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,000	$5.96	0.6%	361	112.3	3.21×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 625	$5.92	0.9%	512	179.7	2.85×
USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 500	$5.89	1.1%	191	224.7	0.85×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 500	$5.78	1.1%	379	224.7	1.69×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 333	$5.01	1.5%	170	337.0	0.50×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 333	$4.47	1.3%	341	337.0	1.01×
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 313	$2.84	0.9%	1,890	359.5	5.26×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$2.19	2.1%	1,029	1123.4	0.92×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$2.14	4.1%	6,955	2246.8	3.10×
USP-S \| Torque (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$1.50	5.8%	4,511	4493.6	1.00×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$1.30	6.3%	9,572	5617.1	1.70×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 17	$1.10	6.4%	1,704	6740.5	0.25×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$0.96	7.4%	7,251	8987.3	0.81×
USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$0.70	6.1%	9,983	10110.7	0.99×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 10	$0.61	5.7%	14,657	10897.1	1.35×
USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	12.0%	$0.52	6.0%	13,696	13480.9	1.02×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	12.0%	$0.45	5.2%	7,309	13480.9	0.54×
USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	14.0%	$0.40	5.4%	13,851	15727.7	0.88×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	14.6%	$0.21	3.0%	16,818	16424.3	1.02×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/usp, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedmchedla.313$1.37$249181.9x8d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$1.38$248179.8x2d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$1.12$248221.4x1d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedDJ_Scorpyonᴴᴰ$1.11$248223.1x1d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedJASKO-$1.12$247220.9x13h

USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedBubz$1.37$247179.9x5d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedBubz$1.38$247178.6x5d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$1.37$246179.7x6d

USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedbxgrapeak$1.37$246179.5x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | 27 (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$1.12$0.400.36x13s

USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffPixelToni$1.12$1.090.97x13s

USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$1.12$0.440.39x13s

USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$1.12$0.710.63x13s

USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$1.12$0.440.39x31s

USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$1.12$1.090.97x31s

USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$1.12$0.440.39x31s

USP-S | 27 (Minimal Wear)weapon · bluePixelToni$1.12$0.400.36x31s

USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$1.12$0.210.19x47s

USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue$1.12$0.440.39x47s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.33%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$1.12	92.33%	40
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$1.12	92.10%	40
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$1.12	92.15%	40
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1.11	92.82%	40
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1.11	92.91%	40
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1.12	92.11%	40
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1.38	92.73%	37
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$1.39	92.42%	37
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$1.39	92.26%	37
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC	$1.38	92.47%	37
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$1.38	92.35%	37
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$1.38	92.20%	37
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$1.38	92.46%	37
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$1.38	92.40%	37
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$1.38	92.40%	37
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$1.37	92.74%	37
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$1.38	92.32%	37
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$1.37	92.82%	37
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$1.37	92.53%	37
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$1.37	92.59%	37
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$1.37	92.63%	37
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$1.37	92.37%	37
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1.37	92.60%	37
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$1.37	92.30%	37
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1.37	92.77%	37
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.37	92.67%	37
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$1.37	92.72%	37
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$1.37	92.55%	37
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$1.37	92.77%	37
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$1.37	92.22%	37

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.3%covert 0.0%restricted 9.3%red 0.1%Rare 22.0%#8847ff 0.1%Mythical 11.3%industrial 0.3%mil spec 12.5%pink 0.2%#4b69ff 6.0%Uncommon 12.0%blue 26.0%best hit $249 (181.9x)