GLOWING STONE

A case on Casehug (BATTLE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$70.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $61.25 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.25%

4,600 openings, odds method

Variance

2.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78.59%±13.57574 openings

7 days

82.69%±5.223,789 openings

30 days

83.25%±4.744,600 openings

since tracking started

83.25%±4.744,600 openings

64.5%78.8%93.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	574	78.59%±13.6	−1.3σ	odds
7d	3,789	82.69%±5.22	−1.8σ	odds
30d	4,600	83.25%±4.74	−1.8σ	odds
All	4,600	83.25%±4.74	−1.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,619 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,667	$2,285	2.2%	2	2.8	0.72×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,667	$2,069	2.0%	2	2.8	0.72×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,429	$2,029	2.3%	1	3.2	0.31×
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 1,250	$1,627	2.1%	2	3.7	0.54×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 5,000	$563	0.2%	0	0.9	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 385	$506	2.1%	9	12.0	0.75×
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 2,500	$287	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$241	1.6%	0	18.5	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 50	$196	6.4%	0	91.9	0.00×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 44	$184	6.8%	0	103.9	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 33	$159	7.8%	100	139.5	0.72×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 88	$150	2.8%	0	52.2	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 179	$149	1.4%	0	25.9	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 27	$129	7.8%	162	172.8	0.94×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 105	$114	1.8%	0	43.9	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 119	$112	1.5%	0	38.8	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 95	$101	1.7%	0	48.5	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$99.54	1.6%	0	46.2	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 84	$87.34	1.7%	0	55.0	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 72	$80.86	1.8%	0	64.2	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 118	$80.23	1.1%	0	39.3	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 103	$77.91	1.2%	0	44.8	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · sunny	1 in 65	$76.61	1.9%	0	71.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 85	$75.96	1.5%	0	54.0	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 102	$75.01	1.2%	0	45.3	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 56	$74.72	2.2%	0	81.8	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny	1 in 51	$73.65	2.4%	0	91.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 76	$71.51	1.5%	0	61.0	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 61	$65.84	1.8%	0	75.3	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny	1 in 79	$65.76	1.4%	0	58.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$65.71	1.1%	0	46.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 98	$65.16	1.1%	0	47.1	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 119	$64.43	0.9%	0	38.8	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 70	$60.86	1.4%	0	65.6	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 106	$59.65	0.9%	0	43.4	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 66	$57.82	1.4%	0	70.2	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 99	$56.52	0.9%	0	46.7	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 83	$52.29	1.0%	0	55.4	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny	1 in 82	$51.67	1.0%	0	56.4	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 91	$51.04	0.9%	0	50.8	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 91	$50.93	0.9%	0	50.8	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny	1 in 79	$50.62	1.0%	0	58.2	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 85	$48.79	0.9%	0	54.0	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 83	$47.63	0.9%	0	55.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 152	$45.59	0.5%	0	30.5	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 56	$31.82	0.9%	0	82.2	0.00×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violet	1 in 16	$23.06	2.3%	311	286.4	1.09×
P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$18.33	2.0%	306	314.1	0.97×
AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 20	$15.36	1.2%	0	227.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$14.82	0.8%	0	146.4	0.00×
M249 \| Contrast Spray (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 13	$14.69	1.8%	319	343.2	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 31	$14.67	0.8%	0	148.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 13	$13.56	1.7%	340	354.3	0.96×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$9.85	1.4%	426	395.4	1.08×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/glowing-stone, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1SPARKY$70.00$2,39434.20x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$70.00$2,39434.20x5d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$70.00$2,15630.80x6d

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$70.00$2,13330.47x4d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$70.00$2,09329.91x7d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$70.00$1,70424.34x6d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$70.00$1,66223.74x1d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1C1N0$70.00$5257.50x7d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$70.00$5247.49x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Gut Knife | Bright Waterknife · sunnyGilathiss$70.00$66.880.96x13m

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violetGilathiss$70.00$23.060.33x13m

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffegloves · sunnyGilathiss$70.00$57.020.81x13m

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Waterknife · sunnyGilathiss$70.00$49.540.71x14m

Tec-9 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · blueGilathiss$70.00$9.850.14x14m

StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violetGilathiss$70.00$13.560.19x14m

★ Gut Knife | Ultravioletknife · sunnyGilathiss$70.00$78.961.13x14m

★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Gilathiss$70.00$1592.27x14m

M4A1-S | Decimatorweapon · pinkGilathiss$70.00$17.630.25x14m

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Waterknife · sunnyGilathiss$70.00$49.540.71x14m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$70.00	87.50%	54
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$70.00	87.46%	54
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$70.00	87.81%	54
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$70.00	87.38%	54
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$70.00	87.71%	54
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$70.00	87.51%	54
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$70.00	87.39%	54
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$70.00	87.56%	54
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$70.00	87.57%	54
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$70.00	87.56%	54
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$70.00	87.56%	54
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$70.00	87.27%	54
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$70.00	87.58%	54
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$70.00	87.27%	54
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$70.00	87.79%	54
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$70.00	87.24%	54
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$70.00	87.79%	54
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$70.00	87.24%	54
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$70.00	87.74%	54
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$70.00	87.90%	54
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$70.00	87.37%	54

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 26.6%gold 2.9%legendary 0.0%sunny 7.3%epic 2.0%extraordinary 8.1%Covert 1.6%#ffd700 1.0%classified 3.8%rare 1.8%violet 20.7%#d32ce6 4.9%gray 7.4%pink 3.2%blue 8.6%best hit $2,394 (34.20x)