GOLD NOVA

A case on Casehug (BESTSELLERS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$26.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $22.75 from 90 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.18%

17.7K openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.11%±4.223,163 openings

7 days

86.15%±1.8416.9K openings

30 days

86.18%±1.7917.7K openings

since tracking started

86.18%±1.7917.7K openings

81.0%86.0%91.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,163	86.11%±4.22	−0.6σ	odds
7d	16.9K	86.15%±1.84	−1.4σ	odds
30d	17.7K	86.18%±1.79	−1.4σ	odds
All	17.7K	86.18%±1.79	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values90 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · Ruby	1 in 5,000	$1,364	1.2%	3	3.5	0.85×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 3,333	$640	0.8%	3	5.3	0.56×
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$280	0.7%	5	10.6	0.47×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$193	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 1,250	$164	0.6%	10	14.2	0.71×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$155	0.1%	0	3.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$152	0.1%	0	3.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$147	0.2%	0	5.3	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 1,000	$134	0.6%	17	17.7	0.96×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$122	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$111	0.3%	0	10.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$109	0.1%	0	3.5	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 769	$105	0.6%	21	23.0	0.91×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 106	$95.90	4.0%	0	166.6	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 50	$84.78	7.4%	427	352.6	1.21×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 270	$83.95	1.4%	0	65.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 179	$74.67	1.8%	0	99.2	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 154	$71.74	2.0%	0	115.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 137	$65.16	2.1%	0	129.3	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 400	$63.82	0.7%	0	44.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 233	$60.74	1.1%	0	76.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 263	$59.09	1.0%	0	67.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 217	$58.63	1.2%	0	81.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 196	$55.66	1.2%	0	90.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 227	$55.23	1.1%	0	78.0	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 175	$54.96	1.4%	0	101.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 227	$54.85	1.1%	0	78.0	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 169	$53.92	1.4%	0	104.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 270	$53.88	0.9%	0	65.6	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 60	$51.88	3.8%	274	295.9	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 164	$50.97	1.4%	0	108.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 179	$47.11	1.2%	0	99.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 149	$43.39	1.3%	0	118.7	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 182	$42.72	1.0%	0	97.5	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 179	$42.22	1.0%	0	99.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 167	$42.09	1.1%	0	106.3	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 175	$41.83	1.0%	0	101.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 130	$40.23	1.4%	0	136.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 169	$35.94	0.9%	0	104.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 11	$32.20	12.6%	0	1573.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 16	$26.89	7.6%	0	1139.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 111	$25.56	1.0%	0	159.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 118	$24.24	0.9%	0	150.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 115	$23.85	0.9%	0	154.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 92	$23.72	1.1%	0	193.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 108	$23.65	1.0%	0	164.8	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 105	$23.30	1.0%	0	168.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 110	$23.13	0.9%	0	161.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 104	$22.11	0.9%	0	170.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 78	$21.04	1.2%	0	228.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 77	$20.90	1.2%	0	230.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 94	$20.09	0.9%	0	187.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 455	$18.64	0.2%	0	39.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 87	$18.57	0.9%	0	203.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$17.60	3.1%	745	710.5	1.05×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 76	$16.80	1.0%	0	233.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 286	$16.28	0.3%	0	62.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$15.51	1.0%	0	269.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 65	$15.43	1.0%	0	271.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$14.15	1.0%	0	297.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 244	$13.57	0.2%	0	72.6	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 278	$13.35	0.2%	0	63.8	0.00×
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 76	$12.19	0.7%	0	232.1	0.00×
AWP \| The End (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 56	$9.76	0.8%	0	317.2	0.00×
AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 53	$9.44	0.8%	0	333.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 123	$8.90	0.3%	0	143.5	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 185	$8.69	0.2%	0	95.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 116	$7.97	0.3%	0	152.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 116	$6.89	0.3%	0	152.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 109	$6.78	0.3%	0	163.0	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 90	$5.95	0.3%	0	196.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 68	$5.88	0.4%	0	258.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 64	$5.56	0.4%	0	278.2	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 90	$5.17	0.3%	0	196.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 63	$5.12	0.4%	0	281.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 63	$5.10	0.4%	0	283.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 54	$4.94	0.4%	0	329.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 54	$4.61	0.4%	0	326.0	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 61	$4.53	0.3%	0	288.8	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 58	$4.38	0.3%	0	303.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$4.21	0.3%	0	318.9	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$4.13	0.3%	0	329.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 52	$4.02	0.3%	0	340.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 51	$3.96	0.3%	0	347.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$3.75	0.3%	0	357.9	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 57	$3.73	0.3%	0	310.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$3.69	0.3%	0	365.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$3.66	0.3%	0	370.3	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 54	$3.58	0.3%	0	329.6	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 54	$3.53	0.3%	0	326.0	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/gold-nova, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · Ruby$26.00$1,41754.49x5d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · Ruby$26.00$1,37752.96x4d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · Ruby$26.00$1,36052.31x21h

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$26.00$66325.50x6d

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldAlucard4$26.00$64924.96x1d

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$26.00$64024.63x19h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Black Lotusweapon · pinkKaprix skins.army$26.00$5.900.23x11m

AWP | Mortisweapon · pink$26.00$5.090.20x13m

AK-47 | The Oligarchweapon · red$26.00$33.711.30x13m

AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkSalik skins.army$26.00$17.600.68x13m

M4A1-S | Black Lotusweapon · pink$26.00$5.900.23x14m

Zeus x27 | Olympusweapon · pink$26.00$4.240.16x14m

Zeus x27 | Olympusweapon · pinkSalik skins.army$26.00$4.240.16x14m

Glock-18 | AXIAweapon · pink$26.00$26.061.00x15m

AK-47 | Neon Riderweapon · red$26.00$62.552.41x15m

AWP | Mortisweapon · pinkSalik skins.army$26.00$5.090.20x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$26.00	87.50%	90
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$26.00	87.35%	90
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$26.00	87.34%	90
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$26.00	87.32%	90
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$26.00	87.49%	90
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$26.00	87.48%	90
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$26.00	87.34%	90
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$26.00	87.30%	90
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$26.00	87.41%	90
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$26.00	87.68%	90
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$26.00	87.56%	90
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$26.00	87.68%	90
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$26.00	87.69%	90
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$26.00	87.69%	90
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$26.00	87.68%	90
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$26.00	87.69%	90
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$26.00	87.68%	90

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 2.0%covert 9.1%classified 13.2%sunny 0.1%Ancient 0.8%rare 19.2%red 2.0%extraordinary 1.7%restricted 5.6%Legendary 8.0%#d32ee6 2.8%pink 29.1%Classified 4.5%#8847ff 2.0%best hit $1,417 (54.49x)