GOLD NOVA JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$131.94

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $115.45 from 90 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.13%

1,146 openings, odds method

Variance

3.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

99.59%±33.44126 openings

7 days

89.13%±11.501,074 openings

30 days

90.13%±11.131,146 openings

since tracking started

90.13%±11.131,146 openings

65.5%99.5%133.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	126	99.59%±33.4	+0.7σ	odds
7d	1,074	89.13%±11.5	+0.3σ	odds
30d	1,146	90.13%±11.1	+0.5σ	odds
All	1,146	90.13%±11.1	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values90 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,180 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · Ruby	1 in 32	$1,360	36.8%	36	36.9	0.98×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 32	$640	17.3%	39	36.9	1.06×
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$280	7.6%	48	36.9	1.30×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$193	1.3%	0	9.2	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 32	$164	4.4%	38	36.9	1.03×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$156	1.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$152	1.0%	0	9.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$135	0.9%	0	9.2	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 32	$133	3.6%	32	36.9	0.87×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$111	1.5%	0	18.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 128	$110	0.7%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$103	0.7%	0	9.2	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 32	$102	2.8%	34	36.9	0.92×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$96.01	1.3%	0	18.4	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 32	$84.78	2.3%	51	36.9	1.38×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$83.83	0.6%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$74.87	0.5%	0	9.2	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$71.74	0.6%	0	12.3	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$64.08	0.4%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$63.19	0.4%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$60.74	0.4%	0	9.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$59.09	0.4%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 96	$58.63	0.5%	0	12.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 96	$55.99	0.5%	0	12.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$55.25	0.4%	0	9.2	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$54.96	0.5%	0	12.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$53.93	0.4%	0	9.2	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$53.92	0.5%	0	12.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 128	$53.27	0.4%	0	9.2	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 32	$52.08	1.4%	38	36.9	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 96	$48.47	0.4%	0	12.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$46.49	0.4%	0	12.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$44.26	0.4%	0	12.3	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$42.75	0.3%	0	9.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 128	$42.44	0.3%	0	9.2	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$41.90	0.3%	0	9.2	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 128	$41.79	0.3%	0	9.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 96	$40.64	0.4%	0	12.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 160	$37.85	0.2%	0	7.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 128	$32.11	0.2%	0	9.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 128	$25.56	0.2%	0	9.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 128	$25.56	0.2%	0	9.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 128	$24.97	0.2%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$24.74	0.2%	0	12.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 128	$23.85	0.2%	0	9.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 128	$23.72	0.2%	0	9.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 128	$23.65	0.2%	0	9.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 128	$22.48	0.2%	0	9.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 128	$21.57	0.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 96	$21.04	0.2%	0	12.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 96	$20.99	0.2%	0	12.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$20.09	0.5%	0	36.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 160	$18.67	0.1%	0	7.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$18.34	0.2%	0	12.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$17.77	0.5%	33	36.9	0.89×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 160	$16.26	0.1%	0	7.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$16.06	0.4%	0	36.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$15.76	0.1%	0	12.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$15.51	0.1%	0	12.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$14.99	0.4%	0	36.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 160	$14.18	0.1%	0	7.4	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 160	$12.80	0.1%	0	7.4	0.00×
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 96	$10.65	0.1%	0	12.3	0.00×
AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 96	$9.42	0.1%	0	12.3	0.00×
AWP \| The End (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 96	$9.33	0.1%	0	12.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 160	$9.03	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 160	$8.67	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 160	$7.91	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 160	$6.78	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 160	$6.64	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 160	$6.00	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 160	$5.98	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 160	$5.53	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 160	$5.42	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 160	$5.23	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 160	$5.19	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 160	$5.09	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 160	$4.65	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 160	$4.61	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 160	$4.33	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 160	$4.12	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 160	$4.10	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 160	$3.90	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 160	$3.90	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 160	$3.76	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 160	$3.75	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 160	$3.75	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 160	$3.67	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 160	$3.64	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 160	$3.63	0.0%	0	7.4	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/gold-nova-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · Ruby$135$1,41710.53x5d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · RubyRysiu$135$1,41710.53x5d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · Ruby$134$1,40810.52x2d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · RubyBee$134$1,40810.52x2d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · Ruby$134$1,40810.52x3d

★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · gold · Ruby$134$1,40810.49x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Black Lotusweapon · pink????Tysiak™$132$7.440.06x54m

AK-47 | Point Disarrayweapon · pink$132$16.540.13x4h

Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$132$2802.12x4h

Zeus x27 | Olympusweapon · pink$132$5.010.04x4h

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3dzs4z0n$132$1641.25x4h

Glock-18 | Water Elementalweapon · pink$132$23.530.18x8h

M4A4 | 龍王weapon · pink$132$17.050.13x8h

Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$132$2802.12x8h

Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedDeath13$132$2802.12x8h

AWP | Hyper Beastweapon · red$132$47.630.36x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$132	87.50%	90
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$133	87.50%	90
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$133	87.50%	90
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$133	87.50%	90
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$133	87.50%	90
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$134	87.50%	90
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$133	87.50%	90
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$134	87.50%	90
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$134	87.50%	90
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$135	87.50%	90
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$133	87.50%	90
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$134	87.50%	90
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$134	87.50%	90
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$134	87.50%	90
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$135	87.50%	90

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 6.3%covert 29.4%classified 10.6%sunny 3.1%Ancient 1.8%rare 6.0%red 3.4%extraordinary 3.1%restricted 2.5%Legendary 5.2%#d32ee6 1.4%pink 24.1%Classified 2.5%#8847ff 0.6%best hit $1,417 (10.53x)