NITRO V3

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$500.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $437.50 from 124 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.39%

1,417 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.04%±15.49136 openings

7 days

92.57%±5.291,156 openings

30 days

92.39%±4.771,417 openings

since tracking started

92.39%±4.771,417 openings

67.0%83.0%99.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.52% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (87.62% – 97.16%, 1,417 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	136	83.04%±15.5	−0.6σ	odds
7d	1,156	92.57%±5.29	+1.9σ	odds
30d	1,417	92.39%±4.77	+2.0σ	odds
All	1,417	92.39%±4.77	+2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values124 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,417 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 50,000	$18.9K	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$14.8K	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$13.8K	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary	1 in 16,667	$12.2K	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$9,628	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 16,667	$9,562	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$8,950	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband	1 in 10,000	$7,130	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 20,000	$6,487	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 7,692	$6,120	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$5,630	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$4,065	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 8,333	$4,017	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 6,667	$3,527	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$3,279	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,639	$3,140	0.4%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,439	$2,804	0.3%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$2,797	0.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,704	$2,592	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$2,547	0.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,190	$2,262	0.4%	1	1.2	0.84×
AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$2,171	0.2%	0	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 1,136	$2,146	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$1,913	0.1%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 106	$1,627	3.5%	11	13.3	0.83×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 305	$1,569	1.2%	0	4.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 219	$1,408	1.5%	0	6.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 229	$1,361	1.4%	0	6.2	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 88	$1,345	3.5%	22	16.1	1.37×
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 87	$1,337	3.5%	24	16.2	1.48×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 474	$1,254	0.6%	0	3.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 272	$1,167	1.0%	0	5.2	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 108	$1,123	2.4%	18	13.1	1.37×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 103	$1,071	2.4%	14	13.8	1.02×
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 101	$1,053	2.4%	13	14.0	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 169	$1,021	1.4%	0	8.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 455	$1,014	0.5%	0	3.1	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 413	$990	0.5%	0	3.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 452	$977	0.5%	0	3.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 385	$933	0.6%	0	3.7	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 87	$903	2.4%	22	16.3	1.35×
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 342	$901	0.6%	0	4.1	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · sunny	1 in 329	$882	0.6%	0	4.3	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 319	$870	0.6%	0	4.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 133	$817	1.4%	0	10.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 77	$797	2.4%	19	18.5	1.03×
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 76	$793	2.4%	14	18.6	0.75×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 161	$716	1.0%	0	8.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$662	3.3%	29	31.3	0.93×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 42	$616	3.3%	31	33.6	0.92×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 172	$610	0.8%	0	8.2	0.00×
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 42	$610	3.3%	38	34.0	1.12×
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 120	$597	1.1%	0	11.8	0.00×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 215	$532	0.6%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 35	$513	3.3%	37	40.3	0.92×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 35	$506	3.3%	31	41.0	0.76×
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 15	$446	6.7%	0	93.6	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 26	$446	4.0%	0	55.0	0.00×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 18	$417	5.3%	0	78.6	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 158	$411	0.6%	0	8.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 55	$410	1.7%	0	25.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 74	$401	1.2%	0	19.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 122	$400	0.7%	115	11.6	9.89×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 518	$390	0.2%	0	2.7	0.00×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 289	$369	0.3%	0	4.9	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 353	$365	0.2%	0	4.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$345	0.7%	10	12.7	0.79×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 111	$340	0.7%	7	12.8	0.55×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 377	$320	0.2%	0	3.8	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 246	$291	0.3%	0	5.8	0.00×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$284	0.2%	0	4.5	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · sunny · Phase 1	1 in 99	$283	0.7%	15	14.3	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 99	$282	0.7%	17	14.3	1.19×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 508	$277	0.1%	0	2.8	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 96	$269	0.6%	12	14.7	0.81×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 332	$269	0.2%	0	4.3	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 212	$266	0.3%	0	6.7	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 95	$261	0.6%	22	15.0	1.47×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 93	$256	0.6%	21	15.2	1.39×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 86	$222	0.6%	14	16.5	0.85×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 155	$219	0.3%	0	9.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 203	$218	0.2%	0	7.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 391	$217	0.1%	0	3.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 331	$212	0.1%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 327	$210	0.1%	0	4.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 481	$200	0.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 318	$197	0.1%	0	4.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 379	$193	0.1%	0	3.7	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 74	$175	0.5%	15	19.1	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 243	$175	0.2%	0	5.8	0.00×
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 74	$174	0.5%	19	19.1	0.99×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 380	$172	0.1%	0	3.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 255	$166	0.1%	0	5.6	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 72	$164	0.5%	19	19.8	0.96×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 119	$156	0.3%	0	11.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 268	$155	0.1%	0	5.3	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 68	$152	0.5%	18	20.7	0.87×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 259	$152	0.1%	0	5.5	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 67	$147	0.5%	15	21.2	0.71×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 244	$147	0.1%	0	5.8	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 198	$146	0.2%	0	7.2	0.00×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 147	$141	0.2%	0	9.6	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 64	$137	0.5%	16	22.1	0.72×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 476	$128	0.1%	0	3.0	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 61	$125	0.5%	16	23.3	0.69×
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 61	$125	0.5%	26	23.3	1.11×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 224	$124	0.1%	0	6.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 154	$121	0.2%	0	9.2	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 143	$119	0.2%	0	9.9	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 128	$118	0.2%	0	11.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$115	0.1%	0	7.1	0.00×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 101	$111	0.3%	0	14.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 79	$109	0.3%	0	18.0	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 56	$109	0.4%	21	25.4	0.83×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 55	$105	0.4%	31	25.9	1.20×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 239	$104	0.1%	0	5.9	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 98	$100	0.2%	0	14.4	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$90.45	0.4%	35	28.3	1.24×
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 47	$81.55	0.4%	31	30.1	1.03×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 190	$71.74	0.1%	0	7.5	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 110	$64.08	0.1%	0	12.8	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 95	$58.20	0.1%	0	14.9	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 124	$54.96	0.1%	0	11.4	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 122	$53.92	0.1%	0	11.6	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/nitro-v3, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Dragon Loreweapon · redTolukiTo$500$11.3K22.60x4d

M4A4 | Howlweapon · orange$500$7,16714.33x8d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Boxgloves · sunnyvstysiaaa$500$3,5877.17x1d

AWP | Medusaweapon · covertSr Albondiga$500$3,2976.59x6d

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$500$2,2914.58x4d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1Suzii$500$1,7033.41x5d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$500$1,6703.34x1d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1hossy$500$1,6703.34x1d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1HabiLive$500$1,6703.34x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungleweapon · red$500$1,1892.38x1h

AUG | Akihabara Acceptweapon · red$500$4320.86x1h

AK-47 | Jet Setweapon · pinkChrasťoušekS$500$4780.96x1h

★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$500$1090.22x1h

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covertChrasťoušekS$500$2220.44x1h

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$500$1,1232.25x1h

AK-47 | Fire Serpentweapon · covertChrasťoušekS$500$9041.81x1h

★ Sport Gloves | Vicegloves · sunny$500$4270.85x2h

AK-47 | Jet Setweapon · pink$500$4780.96x2h

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1$500$1,6273.25x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$500	87.50%	124
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$500	87.68%	124
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$500	87.52%	124
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$500	87.44%	124
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$500	87.61%	124
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$500	87.61%	124
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$500	87.67%	124
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$500	87.63%	124
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$500	87.47%	124
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$500	87.62%	124
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$500	87.46%	124
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$500	87.32%	124
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$500	87.54%	124
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$500	87.50%	124
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$500	87.52%	124
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$500	87.47%	124

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 73.4%contraband 0.0%extraordinary 4.6%gold 1.9%epic 3.4%classified 11.8%sunny 1.6%rare 1.3%red 0.4%Immortal 1.5%best hit $11.3K (22.60x)