NITRO V3 JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$1,301.51

Advertised RTP

90.50%

EV $1,177.87 from 124 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.75%

1,719 openings, sample method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

18 openings · below min

7 days

99.85%±14.67598 openings

30 days

94.75%±8.281,719 openings

since tracking started

94.75%±8.281,719 openings

49.0%134.5%220.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18	134.50%±84.7	—	odds
7d	598	99.85%±14.7	+1.2σ	odds
30d	1,719	94.75%±8.28	—	sample
All	1,719	94.75%±8.28	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values124 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,719 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 260	$18.9K	6.2%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 195	$14.8K	6.5%	0	8.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$13.8K	4.5%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary	1 in 195	$12.2K	5.3%	0	8.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$9,628	3.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband	1 in 195	$9,562	4.2%	0	8.8	0.00×
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 195	$8,950	3.9%	0	8.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband	1 in 195	$7,130	3.1%	0	8.8	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear)gloves · legendary	1 in 260	$6,487	2.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 195	$6,120	2.7%	0	8.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$5,630	1.8%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$4,065	2.7%	0	13.2	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 260	$4,017	1.3%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 260	$3,527	1.2%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 195	$3,279	1.4%	0	8.8	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 65	$3,140	4.1%	23	26.4	0.87×
AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$2,804	1.8%	0	13.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 326	$2,797	0.7%	0	5.3	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 260	$2,592	0.8%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 195	$2,547	1.1%	0	8.8	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$2,262	3.0%	24	26.4	0.91×
AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 195	$2,171	0.9%	0	8.8	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 65	$2,146	2.8%	27	26.4	1.02×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 195	$1,913	0.8%	0	8.8	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 65	$1,627	2.1%	31	26.4	1.17×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 195	$1,569	0.7%	0	8.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$1,408	0.9%	0	13.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 195	$1,361	0.6%	0	8.8	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$1,345	1.8%	34	26.4	1.29×
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$1,337	1.7%	20	26.4	0.76×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 326	$1,254	0.3%	0	5.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$1,167	0.8%	0	13.2	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$1,123	1.5%	26	26.4	0.98×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 65	$1,071	1.4%	35	26.4	1.32×
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 65	$1,053	1.4%	24	26.4	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$1,021	0.7%	0	13.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 325	$1,014	0.3%	0	5.3	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 260	$990	0.3%	0	6.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 195	$977	0.4%	0	8.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 325	$933	0.2%	0	5.3	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 65	$903	1.2%	36	26.4	1.36×
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 260	$901	0.3%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · sunny	1 in 260	$882	0.3%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 260	$870	0.3%	0	6.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$817	0.5%	0	13.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 65	$797	1.0%	29	26.4	1.10×
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 65	$793	1.0%	19	26.4	0.72×
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 325	$716	0.2%	0	5.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 65	$662	0.9%	31	26.4	1.17×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 65	$616	0.8%	31	26.4	1.17×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 195	$610	0.3%	0	8.8	0.00×
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 65	$610	0.8%	28	26.4	1.06×
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 195	$597	0.3%	0	8.8	0.00×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$532	0.2%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 65	$513	0.7%	17	26.4	0.64×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 65	$506	0.7%	21	26.4	0.79×
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 195	$446	0.2%	0	8.8	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 195	$446	0.2%	0	8.8	0.00×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 195	$417	0.2%	0	8.8	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 326	$411	0.1%	0	5.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$410	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 326	$401	0.1%	0	5.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 65	$400	0.5%	27	26.4	1.02×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$390	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 195	$369	0.2%	0	8.8	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 195	$365	0.2%	0	8.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 65	$345	0.5%	20	26.4	0.76×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$340	0.4%	29	26.4	1.10×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$320	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 195	$291	0.1%	0	8.8	0.00×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$284	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · sunny · Phase 1	1 in 65	$283	0.4%	35	26.5	1.32×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 65	$282	0.4%	33	26.5	1.25×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$277	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 65	$269	0.4%	23	26.5	0.87×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$269	0.2%	0	13.2	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 130	$266	0.2%	0	13.2	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$261	0.3%	27	26.5	1.02×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 65	$256	0.3%	24	26.5	0.91×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 65	$222	0.3%	21	26.5	0.79×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 130	$219	0.1%	0	13.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$218	0.1%	0	13.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$217	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$212	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$210	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 325	$200	0.1%	0	5.3	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 195	$197	0.1%	0	8.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$193	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$175	0.2%	31	26.5	1.17×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 260	$175	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$174	0.2%	22	26.5	0.83×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 325	$172	0.0%	0	5.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$166	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 65	$164	0.2%	23	26.5	0.87×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$156	0.1%	0	13.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$155	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 65	$152	0.2%	20	26.5	0.76×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$152	0.0%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$147	0.2%	25	26.5	0.94×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$147	0.0%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 195	$146	0.1%	0	8.8	0.00×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$141	0.1%	0	13.2	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$137	0.2%	30	26.5	1.13×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 325	$128	0.0%	0	5.3	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$125	0.2%	22	26.5	0.83×
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$125	0.2%	23	26.5	0.87×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 325	$124	0.0%	0	5.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 260	$121	0.0%	0	6.6	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 195	$119	0.1%	0	8.8	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 130	$118	0.1%	0	13.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 325	$115	0.0%	0	5.3	0.00×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$111	0.1%	0	13.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 130	$109	0.1%	0	13.2	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$109	0.1%	44	26.5	1.66×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$105	0.1%	16	26.5	0.60×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 195	$104	0.0%	0	8.8	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 130	$100	0.1%	0	13.2	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$90.45	0.1%	30	26.5	1.13×
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$81.55	0.1%	29	26.5	1.10×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 325	$71.74	0.0%	0	5.3	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 195	$64.08	0.0%	0	8.8	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 195	$58.20	0.0%	0	8.8	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 325	$54.96	0.0%	0	5.3	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 325	$53.92	0.0%	0	5.3	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/nitro-v3-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotusweapon · redco tam$1,323$12.3K9.31x3d

AK-47 | Wild Lotusweapon · red$1,323$12.3K9.31x4d

AK-47 | Wild Lotusweapon · red$1,316$12.3K9.34x2d

AK-47 | Wild Lotusweapon · red$1,316$12.3K9.34x3d

AK-47 | Wild Lotusweapon · red$1,320$12.2K9.27x5d

AK-47 | Wild Lotusweapon · red$1,325$12.2K9.19x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$1,302$1750.13x23m

★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$1,302$90.450.07x23m

AWP | Asiimovweapon · covert$1,302$1260.10x23m

MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classifiedRadziu$1,302$9030.69x23m

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,302$6160.47x33m

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,302$7930.61x33m

★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic$1,302$6100.47x33m

★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertRadziu$1,302$1090.08x33m

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3Rysiu$1,302$1,0710.82x3h

AWP | Dragon Loreweapon · redRysiu$1,302$12K9.21x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$1,302	90.50%	124
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$1,304	90.50%	124
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$1,305	90.50%	124
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$1,312	90.50%	124
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$1,316	90.50%	124
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$1,323	90.50%	124
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$1,320	90.50%	124
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1,327	90.50%	124
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$1,325	90.50%	124
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$1,325	90.50%	124

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 1.7%covert 77.4%contraband 1.5%extraordinary 2.3%gold 2.4%epic 3.1%classified 6.2%sunny 2.4%rare 1.5%red 0.4%Immortal 1.0%best hit $12.3K (9.31x)