TURBO WIN

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$50.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $43.75 from 58 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.69%

3,296 openings, odds method

Variance

2.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.42%±14.03419 openings

7 days

89.17%±5.642,658 openings

30 days

87.69%±5.073,296 openings

since tracking started

87.69%±5.073,296 openings

67.5%82.3%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	419	82.42%±14.0	−0.7σ	odds
7d	2,658	89.17%±5.64	+0.6σ	odds
30d	3,296	87.69%±5.07	+0.1σ	odds
All	3,296	87.69%±5.07	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values58 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,316 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$2,022	1.4%	0	1.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$1,592	1.1%	3	1.0	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$1,238	1.1%	1	1.3	0.75×
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,500	$1,207	1.1%	1	1.3	0.75×
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,250	$659	1.2%	1	2.7	0.38×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 667	$345	1.2%	5	5.0	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$293	0.1%	0	0.7	—
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 526	$261	1.1%	10	6.3	1.59×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 385	$193	1.1%	16	8.6	1.86×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$191	0.1%	0	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$189	0.1%	0	1.0	—
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$162	8.7%	78	77.6	1.01×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 385	$159	0.9%	0	8.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 196	$156	1.8%	0	16.9	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 556	$149	0.6%	0	6.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 175	$148	1.9%	0	18.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 172	$146	1.9%	0	19.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 156	$139	2.0%	0	21.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 182	$137	1.7%	0	18.2	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 63	$125	4.6%	30	53.1	0.57×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 55	$109	4.6%	51	60.7	0.84×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$91.33	4.6%	65	72.6	0.90×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 204	$90.51	1.0%	0	16.2	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 208	$83.95	0.9%	0	15.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 172	$83.48	1.1%	0	19.2	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 41	$81.55	4.6%	82	81.2	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 152	$77.91	1.2%	0	21.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 370	$76.88	0.5%	0	9.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 105	$75.90	1.6%	0	31.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$72.60	2.1%	0	41.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$67.35	2.4%	0	52.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 55	$64.37	2.7%	0	60.4	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$63.82	1.3%	0	28.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 44	$62.44	3.3%	0	75.9	0.00×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$56.24	7.4%	183	192.0	0.95×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$55.72	2.3%	0	59.4	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 94	$55.14	1.3%	0	35.1	0.00×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 122	$47.89	0.9%	0	27.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 41	$44.56	2.5%	0	81.6	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 55	$44.40	1.8%	0	60.4	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$42.72	1.2%	0	40.1	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 81	$42.22	1.2%	0	40.8	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$41.83	1.2%	0	41.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$39.49	2.5%	0	91.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 88	$36.22	0.9%	0	37.5	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 48	$27.38	1.3%	0	68.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 49	$23.75	1.1%	0	67.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 47	$23.01	1.1%	0	70.6	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$21.40	1.4%	0	97.2	0.00×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 39	$21.17	1.3%	0	85.9	0.00×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$20.82	1.3%	0	88.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 137	$15.92	0.3%	0	24.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 54	$8.18	0.3%	0	61.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$5.88	0.5%	0	125.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$5.66	0.5%	0	130.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 12	$3.23	0.6%	0	285.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 11	$3.22	0.6%	0	290.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	10.8%	$2.33	0.6%	0	357.5	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/turbo-win, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$50.00$1,62232.44x1d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified$50.00$1,61932.38x4d

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryFatih Sultan Tedesco$50.00$1,33526.71x4d

★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covertlarro$50.00$1,30026.01x4d

★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$50.00$67413.48x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Afterimageweapon · pink$50.00$24.630.49x5s

Desert Eagle | Mulberryweapon · violet$50.00$3.890.08x5s

AWP | Hyper Beastweapon · redziomek$50.00$50.221.00x5s

M4A1-S | Glitched Paintweapon · violet$50.00$4.020.08x13s

USP-S | Bleeding Edgeweapon · restricted$50.00$3.990.08x13s

Desert Eagle | Mulberryweapon · violetziomek$50.00$3.890.08x13s

Desert Eagle | Mulberryweapon · violet$50.00$3.890.08x21s

MP9 | Stained Glass (Factory New)weapon · restricted$50.00$1623.24x21s

Desert Eagle | Ocean Driveweapon · redziomek$50.00$78.841.58x21s

Desert Eagle | Mulberryweapon · violet$50.00$3.890.08x29s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$50.00	87.50%	58
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$50.00	87.17%	58
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$50.00	87.70%	58
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$50.00	87.73%	58
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$50.00	87.80%	58
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$50.00	87.51%	58
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$50.00	87.80%	58
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$50.00	87.60%	58
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$50.00	87.80%	58
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$50.00	87.51%	58
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$50.00	87.60%	58
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$50.00	87.51%	58
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$50.00	87.53%	58
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$50.00	87.51%	58
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$50.00	87.53%	58
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$50.00	86.99%	58
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$50.00	87.41%	58
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$50.00	87.27%	58
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$50.00	87.52%	58
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$50.00	87.84%	58
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$50.00	88.02%	58
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$50.00	87.63%	58

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.1%classified 19.1%covert 29.0%restricted 2.3%red 1.9%Ancient 2.5%Legendary 2.1%pink 2.1%#d32ee6 2.6%Mythical 32.8%violet 5.6%best hit $1,622 (32.44x)