TURBO WIN JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price
$379.45
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $332.02 from 58 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.85%
174 openings, odds method
Variance
1.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
5 openings · below min
7 days
99.41%±22.27151 openings
30 days
101.85%±20.74174 openings
since tracking started
101.85%±20.74174 openings
3.0%125.3%247.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h5125.42%±121.5—odds
7d15199.41%±22.3+1.0σodds
30d174101.85%±20.7+1.4σodds
All174101.85%±20.7+1.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values58 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 193 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 27$2,02222.5%77.10.98×
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 27$1,59217.8%117.11.54×
★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 27$1,23813.8%97.11.26×
★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 27$1,20713.5%77.10.98×
★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 27$6597.4%77.10.98×
M4A4 | Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 27$3453.8%67.10.84×
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 135$2930.7%01.40.00×
M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 27$2612.9%107.11.40×
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 27$1932.1%37.10.42×
Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 81$1910.7%02.40.00×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 81$1890.7%02.40.00×
MP9 | Stained Glass (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 27$1621.8%137.11.82×
AWP | Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 108$1590.4%01.80.00×
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 135$1560.3%01.40.00×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 135$1490.3%01.40.00×
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 135$1480.3%01.40.00×
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 135$1460.3%01.40.00×
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 135$1390.3%01.40.00×
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 81$1370.5%02.40.00×
★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 27$1251.4%77.10.98×
M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 27$1091.2%87.11.12×
Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 27$91.331.0%117.11.54×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 108$90.510.3%01.80.00×
AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 108$83.950.2%01.80.00×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 108$83.480.2%01.80.00×
★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 27$81.550.9%67.10.84×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 108$77.910.2%01.80.00×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 108$76.880.2%01.80.00×
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 81$75.900.3%02.40.00×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 108$72.600.2%01.80.00×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 81$67.350.3%02.40.00×
Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 81$64.370.2%02.40.00×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 135$63.820.1%01.40.00×
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 81$62.440.2%02.40.00×
P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 27$56.240.6%27.10.28×
AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 108$55.720.2%01.80.00×
Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 81$55.140.2%02.40.00×
FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 81$47.890.2%02.40.00×
Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 81$44.560.2%02.40.00×
AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 108$44.400.1%01.80.00×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 135$42.720.1%01.40.00×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 135$42.220.1%01.40.00×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 135$41.830.1%01.40.00×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 81$39.490.1%02.40.00×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 108$36.220.1%01.80.00×
Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 81$27.380.1%02.40.00×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 108$23.750.1%01.80.00×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 108$23.010.1%01.80.00×
Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 81$21.400.1%02.40.00×
FAMAS | Afterimage (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 81$21.170.1%02.40.00×
FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 81$20.820.1%02.40.00×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 81$15.920.1%02.40.00×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 81$8.180.0%02.40.00×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 54$5.880.0%03.60.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 54$5.660.0%03.60.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 54$3.230.0%03.60.00×
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 54$3.220.0%03.60.00×
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 81$2.330.0%02.40.00×
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/turbo-win-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Latest dropsnewest first

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC$37987.50%58
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC$38187.50%58
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC$38487.50%58
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC$38887.50%58
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC$39087.50%58
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC$39187.50%58
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$39487.50%58
4 Nov, 04:46 UTC$39187.50%58
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 7.4%classified 22.5%covert 48.9%restricted 3.7%red 1.7%Ancient 1.2%Legendary 1.2%pink 0.9%#d32ee6 1.2%Mythical 8.0%violet 3.1%best hit $2,067 (5.33x)