USP-S

A case on Casehug (CS2 WEAPONS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$1.65

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $1.44 from 94 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.69%

29.4K openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.89%±5.503,781 openings

7 days

86.93%±2.1925.1K openings

30 days

86.69%±2.0429.4K openings

since tracking started

86.69%±2.0429.4K openings

78.5%84.8%91.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3,781	84.89%±5.50	−0.9σ	odds
7d	25.1K	86.93%±2.19	−0.7σ	odds
30d	29.4K	86.69%±2.04	−0.9σ	odds
All	29.4K	86.69%±2.04	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values94 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$143	0.3%	0	0.9	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$137	0.3%	0	0.9	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$137	0.3%	0	0.9	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$136	0.3%	0	0.9	—
USP-S \| Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$104	0.7%	1	2.9	0.34×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$76.88	0.1%	0	0.6	—
USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,667	$72.25	0.8%	7	4.4	1.59×
USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$59.73	0.7%	7	5.0	1.40×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$58.58	0.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$47.11	0.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$43.39	0.2%	0	2.4	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 11,111	$41.03	0.3%	0	2.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$40.23	0.3%	0	2.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$38.98	0.1%	0	0.9	—
USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,571	$36.83	0.7%	5	8.2	0.61×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$36.31	0.3%	0	3.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$36.22	0.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20,000	$35.94	0.1%	0	1.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,226	$32.47	0.7%	11	9.1	1.21×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$23.75	0.2%	0	4.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 6,667	$23.20	0.2%	0	4.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50,000	$21.96	0.0%	0	0.6	—
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 25,000	$18.64	0.1%	0	1.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16,667	$16.34	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,564	$8.17	0.2%	0	11.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 833	$6.89	0.6%	0	35.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 4,167	$6.78	0.1%	0	7.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 100,000	$6.70	0.0%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,961	$6.03	0.2%	0	15.0	0.00×
USP-S \| 27 (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 3,846	$5.81	0.1%	0	7.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 893	$5.66	0.4%	0	32.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 188	$5.37	2.0%	0	156.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 150	$4.80	2.2%	0	195.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 136	$4.57	2.3%	0	215.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 870	$4.42	0.4%	0	33.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 161	$4.21	1.8%	0	182.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 66	$4.19	4.4%	0	447.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 36	$4.02	7.7%	0	814.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 35	$3.96	7.8%	0	839.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 72	$3.23	3.1%	0	409.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 365	$3.00	0.6%	0	80.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 71	$2.92	2.9%	0	416.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 93	$2.63	2.0%	0	317.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 11	$2.19	13.8%	0	2682.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 18	$1.70	6.7%	0	1677.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New)weapon · Rare	13.9%	$1.55	14.9%	0	4079.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 16	$1.32	5.8%	0	1856.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 212	$1.30	0.4%	0	138.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 210	$1.29	0.4%	0	140.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 231	$1.22	0.4%	0	127.3	0.00×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,639	$1.18	0.0%	0	17.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 175	$1.15	0.5%	0	168.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 735	$1.15	0.1%	0	40.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 233	$1.07	0.3%	0	126.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 149	$0.93	0.4%	0	196.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 141	$0.89	0.4%	0	208.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 125	$0.83	0.5%	0	235.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 156	$0.80	0.4%	0	188.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 327	$0.72	0.2%	0	90.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 115	$0.69	0.4%	0	254.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 118	$0.67	0.4%	0	249.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 110	$0.67	0.4%	0	267.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$0.66	0.3%	0	210.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 99	$0.60	0.4%	0	297.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 114	$0.58	0.4%	0	258.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 342	$0.58	0.1%	0	85.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 215	$0.58	0.2%	0	137.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 248	$0.58	0.2%	0	118.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 69	$0.57	0.6%	0	425.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 101	$0.54	0.4%	0	289.9	0.00×
USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 179	$0.47	0.2%	0	164.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 128	$0.42	0.2%	0	229.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 128	$0.40	0.2%	0	229.9	0.00×
USP-S \| 27 (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 112	$0.35	0.2%	0	262.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 96	$0.35	0.3%	0	306.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 91	$0.34	0.3%	0	321.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 96	$0.32	0.2%	0	307.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 96	$0.32	0.2%	0	307.0	0.00×
USP-S \| 27 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 83	$0.29	0.2%	0	354.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 77	$0.29	0.3%	0	384.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 82	$0.29	0.2%	0	359.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 72	$0.28	0.3%	0	406.4	0.00×
USP-S \| 27 (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 70	$0.26	0.3%	0	422.5	0.00×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 130	$0.24	0.1%	0	226.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 63	$0.20	0.2%	0	469.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 63	$0.20	0.2%	0	469.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight	1 in 63	$0.20	0.2%	0	469.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 126	$0.14	0.1%	0	234.1	0.00×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 55	$0.14	0.2%	0	535.8	0.00×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 55	$0.14	0.2%	0	535.8	0.00×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 55	$0.14	0.2%	0	535.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 32	$0.06	0.1%	0	906.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 32	$0.06	0.1%	0	906.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 24	$0.05	0.1%	0	1209.1	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/usp-s, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

USP-S | Neo-Noirweapon · redwrona SKINS skins.army CS2.ME$1.65$13984.07x2d

USP-S | Neo-Noirweapon · red$1.65$13883.87x3d

USP-S | Neo-Noirweapon · redkslwrz$1.65$13883.87x3d

USP-S | Neo-Noirweapon · red$1.65$13883.66x15h

USP-S | Neo-Noirweapon · redHaise$1.65$13581.98x1d

USP-S | Orion (Factory New)weapon · classifiedkosa2137skins.armyCS2.ME$1.65$10563.78x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Check Engineweapon · blueXNoctus skins.army$1.65$1.430.87x2m

USP-S | Forest Leavesweapon · blueLightCasper Weed$1.65$0.060.04x2m

USP-S | Silent Shotweapon · blueTomczak skins.army$1.65$1.160.70x3m

USP-S | Silent Shotweapon · blue$1.65$1.160.70x4m

USP-S | Tropical Breezeweapon · blueCasper Weed$1.65$0.370.22x4m

USP-S | PC-GRNweapon · blue$1.65$0.160.10x5m

USP-S | Forest Leavesweapon · blueLightCasper Weed$1.65$0.060.04x5m

USP-S | Alpine Camoweapon · blue$1.65$1.000.61x7m

USP-S | Forest Leavesweapon · blueLight????????????????????_????????$1.65$0.060.04x7m

USP-S | Alpine Camoweapon · blue$1.65$1.000.61x7m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$1.65	87.50%	94
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$1.65	87.19%	94
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$1.65	88.13%	94
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$1.65	87.40%	94
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$1.65	87.50%	94
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$1.65	87.03%	94
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$1.65	87.95%	94
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$1.65	87.95%	94
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$1.65	88.39%	94
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$1.65	87.20%	94
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.65	87.95%	94
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$1.65	87.17%	94
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.65	88.32%	94
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$1.65	87.57%	94
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$1.65	88.32%	94
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$1.65	87.09%	94
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$1.65	86.90%	94

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 2.2%restricted 5.4%red 0.0%Ancient 0.0%mil spec 4.6%pink 5.7%industrial 4.2%Mythical 4.4%blue 16.9%Restricted 9.1%Rare 23.2%uncommon 1.4%#4b69ff 9.0%violet 0.6%milspec 1.1%Uncommon 0.3%blueLight 3.2%light blue 1.6%#87c7ff 7.2%best hit $139 (84.07x)