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USP-S JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price
$28.12
Advertised RTP
87.52%
EV $24.61 from 94 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.30%
4,737 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
89.19%±10.54544 openings
7 days
85.86%±3.834,057 openings
30 days
86.30%±3.544,737 openings
since tracking started
86.30%±3.544,737 openings
78.0%89.3%100.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h54489.19%±10.5+0.3σodds
7d4,05785.86%±3.83−0.9σodds
30d4,73786.30%±3.54−0.7σodds
All4,73786.30%±3.54−0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values94 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,745 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 104$1475.7%045.60.00×
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 104$1385.4%045.60.00×
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 104$1355.3%045.60.00×
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 104$1355.3%045.60.00×
USP-S | Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 26$98.9015.5%165182.50.90×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 104$74.942.9%045.60.00×
USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 26$73.0111.4%167182.50.92×
USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 26$59.739.3%189182.51.04×
USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 78$58.643.1%060.80.00×
USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 78$47.442.5%060.80.00×
USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 78$44.542.3%060.80.00×
USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 78$40.552.1%060.80.00×
USP-S | Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 78$40.422.1%060.80.00×
USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient1 in 78$38.752.0%060.80.00×
USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 52$38.503.0%091.20.00×
USP-S | The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 78$36.891.9%060.80.00×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 104$35.831.4%045.60.00×
USP-S | Business Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 26$33.095.2%154182.50.84×
USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 26$32.815.1%170182.50.93×
USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 130$24.020.8%036.50.00×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 104$23.060.9%045.60.00×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 104$22.470.9%045.60.00×
USP-S | Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 130$18.530.6%036.50.00×
USP-S | Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 104$17.030.7%045.60.00×
USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 78$8.060.4%060.80.00×
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 130$7.150.2%036.50.00×
USP-S | Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 130$6.910.2%036.50.00×
USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 52$6.590.5%091.20.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 130$5.800.2%036.50.00×
USP-S | 27 (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 130$5.690.2%036.50.00×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 130$5.550.2%036.50.00×
USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 104$5.130.2%045.60.00×
USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 104$4.900.2%045.60.00×
USP-S | Blueprint (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 104$4.680.2%045.60.00×
USP-S | Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 104$4.380.2%045.60.00×
USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 130$4.240.1%036.50.00×
USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 78$4.160.2%060.80.00×
USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 130$4.060.1%036.50.00×
USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 130$4.010.1%036.50.00×
USP-S | Desert Tactical (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 130$3.260.1%036.50.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 130$3.140.1%036.50.00×
USP-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 130$2.850.1%036.50.00×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 130$2.650.1%036.50.00×
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted1 in 104$2.190.1%045.60.00×
USP-S | Silent Shot (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 130$1.700.1%036.50.00×
USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 78$1.550.1%060.80.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 130$1.300.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 130$1.300.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 130$1.250.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 130$1.210.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 130$1.180.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 130$1.180.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | PC-GRN (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 130$1.150.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 104$1.070.0%045.60.00×
USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 130$0.920.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 130$0.830.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 78$0.830.0%060.80.00×
USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 104$0.800.0%045.60.00×
USP-S | Silent Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 130$0.750.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 130$0.730.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 104$0.700.0%045.60.00×
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 104$0.700.0%045.60.00×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 130$0.640.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 104$0.640.0%045.60.00×
USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 104$0.630.0%045.60.00×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 130$0.600.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Desert Tactical (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 130$0.580.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 78$0.550.0%060.80.00×
USP-S | Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 130$0.520.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | 27 (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 130$0.470.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 130$0.410.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Silent Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 130$0.400.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 130$0.400.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 130$0.380.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | 27 (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 130$0.350.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 130$0.350.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare1 in 130$0.340.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 130$0.310.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | 27 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 130$0.290.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 130$0.290.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Silent Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 130$0.280.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Silent Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare1 in 130$0.280.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | 27 (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 130$0.260.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 130$0.240.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Desert Tactical (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue1 in 130$0.200.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Desert Tactical (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight1 in 130$0.200.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Desert Tactical (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight1 in 130$0.180.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 130$0.140.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | PC-GRN (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 130$0.140.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 130$0.140.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 130$0.140.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 130$0.060.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 130$0.050.0%036.50.00×
USP-S | Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff1 in 130$0.050.0%036.50.00×
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/usp-s-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New)weapon · restricted$28.12$73.012.60x
USP-S | Tropical Breezeweapon · blue$28.12$0.580.02x
USP-S | Printstreamweapon · red????LySy™$28.12$43.581.55x
USP-S | Forest Leavesweapon · blueLight$28.12$1.490.05x
USP-S | 27weapon · blue$28.12$1.410.05x
USP-S | Printstreamweapon · red????LySy™$28.12$43.581.55x
USP-S | Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified$28.12$98.903.52x
USP-S | Forest Leavesweapon · blueLight$28.12$1.490.05x
USP-S | The Traitorweapon · redMasterOFKILLCS2.ME$28.12$45.361.61x
USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New)weapon · restricted$28.12$73.012.60x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.52%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC$28.1287.52%94
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$28.4187.48%94
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC$28.4287.50%94
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC$28.1287.50%94
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC$28.7187.51%94
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC$28.1287.50%94
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC$28.4087.49%94
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC$28.9187.49%94
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC$28.7287.50%94
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC$28.9187.49%94
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC$28.5287.50%94
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC$28.8087.49%94
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC$28.8687.49%94
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC$28.8087.49%94
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC$28.7187.51%94
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC$28.8087.49%94
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC$28.8587.50%94
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$28.8487.50%94
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$28.8587.50%94
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC$28.8087.50%94
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC$28.7787.50%94
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC$29.0987.49%94
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC$29.2387.51%94
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 9.0%classified 15.2%restricted 14.0%red 1.3%Ancient 1.3%mil spec 15.6%pink 4.0%industrial 3.1%Mythical 5.8%blue 10.0%Restricted 1.0%Rare 5.1%uncommon 1.5%#4b69ff 6.2%violet 0.8%milspec 1.5%Uncommon 0.8%light blue 0.8%blueLight 1.5%#87c7ff 1.5%best hit —