Blue Dream
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.30
22.59 coins
Advertised RTP
90.01%
EV $10.17 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.54%
2,107 openings, odds method
Variance
29.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,119 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$11.3022.59 coins$8351,669 coins73.90x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$11.3022.59 coins$60.28121 coins5.34x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.30 | 90.01% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.9%mil spec 45.1%Mil Spec Grade 1.0%Industrial 1.0%consumer 1.0%industrial 1.0%Mythical 10.0%Mil Spec 10.0%restricted 10.0%gray 10.0%#4b69ff 10.0%best hit $835 (73.90x)