Zero Gravity
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$24.76
38.09 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $22.28 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.08%
2,878 openings, odds method
Variance
19.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,900 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 200 | $1,164 1,791 gems | 26.1% | 7 | 14.5 | 0.48× |
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 100 | $694 1,067 gems | 31.1% | 40 | 29.0 | 1.38× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife | 1 in 67 | $215 331 gems | 14.5% | 48 | 43.5 | 1.10× |
| Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $122 188 gems | 11.0% | 62 | 58.0 | 1.07× |
| M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $36.39 55.99 gems | 8.2% | 145 | 145.0 | 1.00× |
| P2000 | Space Race (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $9.24 14.22 gems | 4.1% | 290 | 290.0 | 1.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Sputnik (Factory New)weapon · blue | 10.0% | $5.35 8.23 gems | 2.4% | 301 | 290.0 | 1.04× |
| P250 | Supernova (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 20.0% | $1.55 2.38 gems | 1.4% | 598 | 580.0 | 1.03× |
| PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 20.0% | $0.72 1.1 gems | 0.6% | 574 | 580.0 | 0.99× |
| SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $0.40 0.61 gems | 0.5% | 835 | 870.0 | 0.96× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyNI𝕏A ˙ᵕ˙$24.7638.09 gems$1,1641,791 gems47.02x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyBAAAAEEEEEEEZZZ$24.7638.09 gems$1,1641,791 gems47.02x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $24.76 | 89.98% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.5%Covert 1.0%covert knife 1.5%classified 7.0%restricted 10.0%blue 10.0%Mythical 20.0%#8847ff 20.0%mil spec 30.0%best hit $1,164 (47.02x)