Засекреченное

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price
$6.79
Advertised RTP
64.33%
EV $4.37 from 153 items
Observed RTP, 30d
65.33%
10.4K openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
33.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
61.45%±8.961,534 openings
7 days
65.12%±3.498,839 openings
30 days
65.33%±3.2110.4K openings
since tracking started
65.33%±3.2110.4K openings
52.0%61.5%71.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,53461.45%±8.96−0.6σodds
7d8,83965.12%±3.49+0.1σodds
30d10.4K65.33%±3.21+0.2σodds
All10.4K65.33%±3.21+0.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values153 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 99,999$3,2710.7%00.1—
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 99,988$1,1490.3%00.1—
M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 99,986$1,0740.2%00.1—
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 99,973$8650.2%00.1—
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 99,838$4780.1%10.1—
AK-47 | Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 99,502$3290.1%00.1—
MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 98,541$2290.1%10.1—
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 97,971$2050.0%00.1—
UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 97,816$2000.0%00.1—
Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 97,733$1970.0%00.1—
USP-S | Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 97,141$1820.0%00.1—
SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified1 in 97,012$1790.0%00.1—
AWP | Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 96,029$1630.0%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 95,839$1600.0%00.1—
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 93,245$1350.0%10.1—
MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 92,455$1300.0%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 91,996$1270.0%00.1—
AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 91,060$1220.0%00.1—
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 84,706$99.460.0%00.1—
AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 82,352$93.930.0%00.1—
P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 81,668$92.490.0%00.1—
P90 | Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 79,035$87.480.0%00.1—
M4A4 | Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 68,004$72.260.0%00.2—
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 63,519$67.610.0%00.2—
USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 46,926$53.930.0%10.2—
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 38,396$47.990.0%20.3—
Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 35,437$46.000.0%00.3—
USP-S | Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 33,708$44.840.0%10.3—
Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 32,593$44.090.0%00.3—
P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 26,785$40.170.0%00.4—
AWP | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 18,659$34.370.0%00.6—
USP-S | Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 17,898$33.790.0%00.6—
Desert Eagle | Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 13,193$29.950.1%20.8—
AWP | Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 10,921$27.870.1%01.0—
MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 10,865$27.820.1%21.0—
Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 7,961$24.800.1%31.32.29×
FAMAS | Meltdown (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 7,616$24.400.1%51.43.65×
M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 7,332$24.070.1%51.43.51×
AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 7,277$24.000.1%41.42.79×
P250 | Undertow (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 7,260$23.980.1%21.41.39×
P90 | Shallow Grave (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 6,925$23.580.1%21.51.33×
FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 6,854$23.490.1%21.51.31×
USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 6,465$23.000.1%31.61.86×
M4A1-S | Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 5,849$22.190.1%21.81.12×
SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 5,253$21.360.1%52.02.51×
AUG | Lil' Pig (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 5,043$21.050.1%82.13.86×
AWP | Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 4,307$19.910.1%32.41.24×
Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 4,231$19.790.1%52.52.02×
Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 4,137$19.630.1%62.52.38×
Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 4,098$19.570.1%52.51.96×
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 3,972$19.360.1%42.61.52×
M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 3,908$19.250.1%42.71.50×
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 3,769$19.000.1%22.80.72×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 3,763$18.990.1%42.81.44×
Glock-18 | AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare1 in 3,702$18.890.1%12.80.35×
AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 3,569$18.650.1%22.90.68×
USP-S | Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 3,417$18.370.1%33.10.98×
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 3,074$17.700.1%13.40.29×
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 2,987$17.530.1%23.50.57×
SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 2,919$17.390.1%43.61.12×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 2,547$16.580.1%44.10.98×
FAMAS | Afterimage (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 2,513$16.510.2%14.20.24×
P2000 | Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 2,395$16.230.2%14.40.23×
SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 2,353$16.130.2%14.40.23×
Tec-9 | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 2,269$15.930.2%74.61.52×
MAC-10 | Toybox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 2,243$15.870.2%24.70.43×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 2,120$15.560.2%54.91.01×
P250 | Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 2,080$15.460.2%55.01.00×
AK-47 | Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 1,909$15.010.2%55.50.91×
CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified1 in 1,803$14.720.2%65.81.04×
M4A4 | Falak (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 1,676$14.350.2%46.20.64×
Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 1,184$12.730.2%88.80.91×
Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 1,122$12.500.3%19.30.11×
AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 1,095$12.400.3%59.50.52×
FAMAS | Djinn (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 1,058$12.250.3%49.90.41×
P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 1,058$12.250.3%79.90.71×
P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 1,054$12.230.3%159.91.51×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 1,049$12.210.3%1610.01.61×
M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 1,002$12.020.3%910.40.86×
MP9 | Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 998$12.010.3%1010.50.96×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 989$11.970.3%810.60.76×
AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 985$11.950.3%1110.61.04×
AUG | Fleet Flock (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 972$11.900.3%1410.71.30×
SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 957$11.830.3%910.90.82×
Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 949$11.800.3%811.00.73×
SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 923$11.690.3%911.30.80×
CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 911$11.630.3%1011.50.87×
P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 886$11.520.3%711.80.59×
Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 875$11.470.3%1011.90.84×
AUG | Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 842$11.320.3%1412.41.13×
Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 824$11.240.3%1412.71.10×
M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 820$11.220.3%1912.71.49×
G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 792$11.080.3%3013.22.27×
PP-Bizon | High Roller (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 608$10.110.4%1317.20.76×
P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 573$9.910.4%2118.21.15×
Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 569$9.890.4%2318.31.25×
R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 550$9.770.4%1019.00.53×
Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce61 in 528$9.630.4%1619.80.81×
AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 510$9.520.4%2420.51.17×
P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 472$9.260.4%022.10.00×
Nova | Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 451$9.120.5%2423.21.04×
AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 420$8.900.5%2324.80.93×
MP7 | Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 411$8.830.5%3725.41.46×
SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 403$8.770.5%1925.90.73×
SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 374$8.540.5%3327.91.18×
P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 359$8.420.5%3329.11.13×
XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 305$7.950.6%2834.20.82×
SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 295$7.850.6%4635.51.30×
G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 179$6.580.8%5458.20.93×
AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 172$6.490.9%6360.61.04×
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 169$6.440.9%6161.70.99×
FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 168$6.420.9%7862.41.25×
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 160$6.320.9%1765.10.26×
Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 149$6.150.9%5870.30.82×
MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 145$6.091.0%7172.10.98×
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 138$5.991.0%6975.50.91×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 123$5.741.1%9984.91.17×
MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 120$5.681.1%11387.41.29×
XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 119$5.671.1%8087.40.92×
MP7 | Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 108$5.461.2%9097.10.93×
AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 108$5.461.2%9696.90.99×
AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 107$5.451.2%9097.40.92×
Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 94$5.181.3%12111.60.11×
FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 91$5.131.3%156114.81.36×
MAG-7 | Justice (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 90$5.111.3%100115.70.86×
Sawed-Off | Devourer (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 90$5.101.3%41116.50.35×
UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 73$4.721.5%42142.40.29×
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 67$4.551.6%144156.40.92×
MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 57$4.281.7%191182.91.04×
SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 56$4.261.7%216185.01.17×
AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 56$4.231.7%214187.81.14×
P250 | Epicenter (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce61 in 53$4.171.8%180195.30.92×
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 52$4.121.8%190200.70.95×
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 49$4.041.9%210211.10.99×
Zeus x27 | Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 48$3.981.9%91219.20.42×
AUG | Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 40$3.722.1%15258.60.06×
P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 40$3.702.1%223261.40.85×
M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 38$3.632.2%272273.40.99×
AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 37$3.582.2%368282.81.30×
XM1014 | Entombed (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 36$3.532.3%320291.01.10×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 36$3.532.2%242290.70.83×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 34$3.462.3%298304.50.98×
XM1014 | XOXO (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 34$3.432.3%269311.60.86×
USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 33$3.412.4%276315.00.88×
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 33$3.402.4%271318.10.85×
MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 32$3.372.4%291324.70.90×
SG 553 | Integrale (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 32$3.362.4%285326.30.87×
USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 29$3.222.5%340360.00.94×
UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 27$3.092.7%347393.80.88×
P2000 | Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 26$3.082.7%372395.40.94×
AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 23$2.912.9%431447.10.96×
Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 19$2.613.2%218554.70.39×
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 13$2.113.7%367800.80.46×
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 64.33%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC$6.7964.33%153
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC$6.7964.19%153
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC$6.7964.18%154
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC$6.7964.43%153
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC$6.7964.70%153
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC$6.7964.71%153
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC$6.7964.69%153
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC$6.7964.74%153
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC$6.7964.80%153
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC$6.7965.15%153
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$6.7965.14%153
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$6.7965.12%153
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC$6.7965.15%153
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC$6.7965.17%153
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC$6.7965.16%153
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC$6.7965.16%153
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC$6.7965.15%153
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC$6.7965.15%153
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC$6.7965.17%153
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC$6.7965.15%153
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC$6.7965.10%153
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC$6.7965.20%153
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC$6.7965.50%153
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC$6.7965.51%153
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC$6.7965.42%153
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC$6.7965.17%152
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC$6.7965.25%153
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC$6.7965.24%153
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$6.7965.25%153
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC$6.7965.22%153
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 34.9%Classified 0.1%pink 25.5%rare 1.0%#d32ee6 5.2%uncommon 0.9%Legendary 30.4%#d32ce6 2.1%best hit $479 (70.53x)