Blackfriday
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$7.83
Advertised RTP
93.93%
EV $7.35 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.25%
100 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 100 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/blackfriday/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $7.83 | 93.93% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $7.89 | 93.21% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.89 | 93.48% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.0%Covert 0.0%covert 1.0%rare 0.0%classified 1.9%restricted 2.1%Rare 7.7%mil spec 30.5%Restricted 0.7%red 0.6%Mil Spec 4.7%#8847ff 5.5%industrial 2.9%#87c7ff 2.2%milspec 5.3%pink 5.3%Classified 5.1%other 4.9%Uncommon 8.3%violet 6.1%Consumer Grade 3.3%blue 1.8%best hit —