King
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$17.12
Advertised RTP
93.95%
EV $16.08 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.12%
96 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 96 openings and 19.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 96 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/king/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $17.12 | 93.95% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $17.24 | 93.30% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $17.24 | 94.52% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.9%legendary 0.0%sunny 0.0%extraordinary 0.2%epic 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%Immortal 0.7%Covert 0.7%milspec 0.9%Mythical 5.6%restricted 8.5%mil spec 9.5%classified 30.8%red 2.6%#8847ff 1.6%#d32ce6 8.1%industrial 4.5%Legendary 8.9%uncommon 4.6%Uncommon 4.5%gray 3.2%best hit —