Sunset
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$14.72
Advertised RTP
93.95%
EV $13.83 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
127.31%
20 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 20 openings and 3.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/sunset/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $14.72 | 93.95% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $15.00 | 92.19% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $15.00 | 94.03% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.6%legendary 0.0%extraordinary 1.2%restricted 8.2%epic 0.2%covert knife 0.3%sunny 0.0%Immortal 0.4%red 3.2%Covert 0.8%Ancient 2.0%pink 38.6%classified 22.8%master 4.9%#d32ee6 7.2%#8847ff 7.5%best hit —