ANACONDA

A case on DROP.SKIN (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

Price

$100.00

Advertised RTP

94.69%

EV $94.69 from 96 items

Observed RTP, 30d

68.41%

37 openings, odds method

Variance

2.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

5 openings · below min

7 days

29 openings · below min

30 days

37 openings · below min

since tracking started

37 openings · below min

-0.5%98.3%197.0%

Small sample. 37 openings and 7.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5	65.38%±131.2	—	odds
7d	29	67.41%±55.0	—	odds
30d	37	68.41%±48.7	—	odds
All	37	68.41%±48.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values96 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 953	$1,714	1.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 889	$1,598	1.9%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 749	$1,347	1.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 707	$1,272	1.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 683	$1,227	1.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 512	$921	1.9%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 499	$898	1.9%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 379	$681	1.9%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 360	$648	1.9%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 356	$639	1.9%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 321	$578	1.9%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 312	$561	1.9%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 282	$507	1.9%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 280	$504	1.9%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,161	$452	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,114	$422	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,078	$400	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,058	$388	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,050	$383	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,050	$382	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,039	$376	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,030	$371	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,010	$358	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,006	$356	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · knifes	1 in 994	$349	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 981	$341	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 958	$328	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 947	$322	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 912	$303	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 905	$299	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 882	$286	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 852	$270	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 815	$251	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 814	$250	0.3%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 812	$249	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 774	$230	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 753	$220	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 694	$192	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 678	$184	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 676	$184	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 666	$179	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 616	$157	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 593	$148	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 593	$147	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 589	$146	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 585	$144	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 554	$132	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 546	$129	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 541	$127	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 536	$125	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 514	$116	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 513	$116	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 507	$114	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 502	$112	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 501	$112	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 500	$111	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 499	$111	0.2%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 499	$111	0.2%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 498	$110	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 491	$108	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 489	$107	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 38	$94.86	2.6%	0	1.0	—
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 38	$87.58	2.5%	1	1.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 37	$86.88	2.4%	0	1.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 37	$86.52	2.4%	1	1.0	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 37	$82.44	2.3%	0	1.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 37	$81.74	2.3%	1	1.0	—
Glock-18 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 37	$81.36	2.3%	1	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 37	$75.64	2.2%	2	1.0	1.99×
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 37	$75.38	2.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 37	$74.77	2.1%	1	1.0	0.99×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 37	$74.30	2.1%	1	1.0	0.99×
USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$73.45	2.1%	2	1.0	1.99×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 37	$73.21	2.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 37	$70.13	2.0%	1	1.0	0.99×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 37	$69.87	2.0%	2	1.0	1.98×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 37	$69.21	2.0%	1	1.0	0.99×
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 37	$68.75	2.0%	2	1.0	1.98×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 37	$66.81	1.9%	2	1.0	1.98×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 37	$59.04	1.7%	1	1.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 37	$57.19	1.6%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 37	$56.48	1.6%	1	1.0	1.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 37	$52.64	1.5%	1	1.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 37	$51.91	1.5%	0	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 38	$48.53	1.4%	3	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 38	$47.29	1.3%	1	1.0	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 38	$46.87	1.3%	2	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 38	$46.84	1.3%	1	1.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 38	$46.73	1.3%	1	1.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 39	$41.89	1.1%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 39	$41.59	1.1%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$39.55	1.0%	1	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 52	$23.16	0.5%	1	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 54	$22.31	0.4%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 56	$21.00	0.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 62	$18.64	0.3%	0	0.6	—

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from dropskin:cases-service/slug/anaconda/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert闇夜を裂く者$100$46.930.47x4h

M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · redMaDggvp$100$68.580.69x13h

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertMaDggvp$100$65.220.65x13h

USP-S | Caiman (Factory New)weapon · classifiedMaDggvp$100$72.150.72x13h

★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertMaDggvp$100$74.040.74x13h

Glock-18 | Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythicalandreidesta$100$81.480.81x1d

★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertRynex$100$73.470.73x2d

AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covertMai$100$48.170.48x3d

AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covertMai$100$49.820.50x3d

★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · goldMai$100$90.140.90x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.69%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$100	94.69%	96
10 Nov, 08:14 UTC	$100	95.21%	96
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$100	95.01%	96
8 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$100	95.14%	96
7 Nov, 10:51 UTC	$100	95.07%	96
6 Nov, 10:44 UTC	$100	95.57%	96
5 Nov, 10:38 UTC	$100	94.33%	96
4 Nov, 07:07 UTC	$100	94.90%	96
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$100	94.64%	96
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$100	95.94%	96

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.1%extraordinary 0.7%restricted 0.1%covert 61.9%covert knife 0.1%knifes 0.1%red 2.9%classified 6.3%Immortal 2.6%mil spec 2.7%gold 5.3%Covert 8.0%Mythical 2.7%Ancient 2.7%pink 1.9%#d32ee6 1.9%best hit —