COVERT

A case on DROP.SKIN (rarity), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

Price

$6.99

Advertised RTP

102.29%

EV $7.15 from 118 items

Observed RTP, 30d

61.41%

659 openings, odds method

Variance

8.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77 openings · below min

7 days

60.50%±23.54576 openings

30 days

61.41%±22.01659 openings

since tracking started

61.41%±22.01659 openings

5.0%69.8%134.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 101.61% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (39.41% – 83.42%, 659 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	77	69.81%±64.2	—	odds
7d	576	60.50%±23.5	−3.4σ	odds
30d	659	61.41%±22.0	−3.6σ	odds
All	659	61.41%±22.0	−3.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values118 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 659 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 22,523	$681	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Covert	1 in 17,921	$542	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$504	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 15,823	$478	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 12,658	$382	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 11,236	$340	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 11,062	$334	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,650	$322	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 8,170	$247	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 7,806	$236	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 7,593	$230	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,440	$225	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,424	$224	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 7,067	$214	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 6,974	$211	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,897	$208	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,878	$208	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,258	$189	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 6,177	$187	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,072	$184	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,737	$173	0.4%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,258	$159	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,878	$147	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,780	$144	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 4,706	$142	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,425	$134	0.4%	0	0.1	—
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,394	$133	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,365	$132	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,340	$131	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,286	$130	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,274	$129	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,272	$129	0.4%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,175	$126	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 4,090	$124	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 4,024	$122	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,003	$121	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 3,887	$117	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$116	0.4%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,828	$116	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,815	$115	0.4%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,775	$114	0.4%	0	0.2	—
CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 3,722	$112	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,706	$112	0.4%	0	0.2	—
CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 3,697	$112	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,691	$112	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 3,622	$109	0.4%	0	0.2	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,398	$103	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,346	$101	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$101	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,212	$97.12	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,155	$95.36	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,154	$95.33	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,135	$94.78	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,113	$94.12	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,014	$91.12	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,013	$91.08	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,012	$91.07	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,008	$90.96	0.4%	0	0.2	—
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,003	$90.78	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,994	$90.51	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,976	$89.96	0.4%	0	0.2	—
CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,966	$89.69	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 2,965	$89.63	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,950	$89.17	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,897	$87.56	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,889	$87.35	0.4%	0	0.2	—
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,886	$87.24	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,424	$73.26	0.4%	0	0.3	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,411	$72.90	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,320	$70.13	0.4%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,311	$69.87	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,218	$67.05	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,032	$61.43	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,010	$60.78	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,989	$60.13	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,989	$60.12	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,966	$59.42	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,892	$57.19	0.4%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,783	$53.89	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,636	$49.46	0.4%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,567	$47.38	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,564	$47.29	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,550	$46.87	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,549	$46.84	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,450	$43.82	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,396	$42.21	0.4%	1	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 1,386	$41.89	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,344	$40.62	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,342	$40.59	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,288	$38.94	0.4%	0	0.5	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,247	$37.69	0.4%	1	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,212	$36.64	0.4%	0	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,205	$36.42	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,196	$36.17	0.4%	0	0.6	—
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 170	$33.94	2.8%	2	3.9	0.51×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 169	$33.77	2.8%	6	3.9	1.54×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 169	$33.68	2.8%	0	3.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Covert	1 in 166	$32.89	2.8%	6	4.0	1.51×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 164	$32.27	2.7%	2	4.0	0.50×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 164	$32.11	2.7%	8	4.0	1.99×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 159	$30.59	2.7%	3	4.1	0.73×
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 159	$30.45	2.7%	3	4.1	0.72×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 157	$29.86	2.7%	4	4.2	0.95×
Souvenir USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 154	$28.97	2.6%	0	4.3	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 150	$27.82	2.6%	4	4.4	0.91×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$5.87	4.9%	41	39.1	1.05×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Digital Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 15	$4.55	4.3%	47	44.5	1.06×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$2.85	3.1%	45	50.5	0.89×
UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 13	$2.80	3.0%	42	50.6	0.83×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 13	$2.72	2.9%	58	50.7	1.14×
MP7 \| Neon Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$2.48	2.7%	63	51.0	1.23×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$2.36	2.6%	51	51.1	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$2.12	2.3%	53	50.9	1.04×
CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$1.37	1.4%	39	46.5	0.84×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$1.23	1.2%	58	44.7	1.30×
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 16	$0.98	0.8%	42	40.0	1.05×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$0.94	0.8%	49	39.0	1.26×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$0.78	0.6%	30	34.7	0.87×

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from dropskin:cases-service/slug/covert/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New)weapon · restrictedLM$6.99$2.120.30x3h

FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedL4gos$6.99$5.830.83x4h

SG 553 | Phantom (Field-Tested)weapon · violetL4gos$6.99$1.230.18x4h

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Digital Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecL4gos$6.99$4.550.65x4h

CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$6.99$1.370.20x6h

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedAYGIT KOCAMAN$6.99$0.780.11x6h

MAC-10 | Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertAnaksunamun$6.99$37.695.39x6h

MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffРай/Rai$6.99$0.990.14x8h

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted76561198138952470$6.99$0.780.11x9h

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedprezp00nage$6.99$0.940.13x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 102.29%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$6.99	102.29%	118
10 Nov, 08:14 UTC	$6.99	101.92%	118
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$6.99	102.12%	118
8 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$6.99	101.67%	118
7 Nov, 10:51 UTC	$6.99	101.78%	118
6 Nov, 10:44 UTC	$6.99	101.62%	118
5 Nov, 10:38 UTC	$6.99	101.04%	118
4 Nov, 07:07 UTC	$6.99	101.31%	118
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$6.99	101.52%	118
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$6.99	101.80%	118

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.2%Covert 0.8%red 1.4%#eb4b4b 0.0%Ancient 2.0%industrial 0.6%classified 5.9%milspec 6.7%#8847ff 13.7%#4b69ff 7.7%Mil Spec Grade 7.7%restricted 41.4%violet 6.8%best hit —