MIL-SPEC

A case on DROP.SKIN (rarity), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is DROP.SKIN's own item price.

Price

$0.39

Advertised RTP

112.79%

EV $0.44 from 201 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.13%

6,201 openings, odds method

Variance

17.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 27

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

68.70%±25.691,001 openings

7 days

73.97%±11.205,285 openings

30 days

75.13%±10.376,201 openings

since tracking started

75.13%±10.376,201 openings

42.5%78.3%114.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 113.13% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (64.76% – 85.50%, 6,201 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,001	68.70%±25.7	−3.2σ	odds
7d	5,285	73.97%±11.2	−6.8σ	odds
30d	6,201	75.13%±10.4	−7.2σ	odds
All	6,201	75.13%±10.4	−7.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values201 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,201 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
P2000 \| Silver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 31,328	$76.02	0.6%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 20,476	$49.68	0.6%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Business Class (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 18,523	$44.94	0.6%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16,720	$40.57	0.6%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 16,134	$39.15	0.6%	0	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 15,990	$38.80	0.6%	0	0.4	—
MP7 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 14,332	$34.77	0.6%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14,327	$34.76	0.6%	0	0.4	—
Tec-9 \| Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 12,236	$29.69	0.6%	0	0.5	—
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 11,636	$28.23	0.6%	0	0.5	—
Nova \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 11,088	$26.90	0.6%	0	0.6	—
MP7 \| Full Stop (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 10,513	$25.51	0.6%	0	0.6	—
SSG 08 \| Detour (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,343	$25.10	0.6%	0	0.6	—
SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 9,659	$23.44	0.6%	0	0.6	—
AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 9,316	$22.60	0.6%	0	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Reactor (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 7,976	$19.35	0.6%	0	0.8	—
MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 7,899	$19.17	0.6%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 7,849	$19.04	0.6%	0	0.8	—
Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 7,831	$19.00	0.6%	0	0.8	—
MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 7,753	$18.81	0.6%	0	0.8	—
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 7,377	$17.90	0.6%	0	0.8	—
Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 7,062	$17.14	0.6%	0	0.9	—
XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 6,972	$16.92	0.6%	0	0.9	—
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 6,356	$15.42	0.6%	0	1.0	—
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 6,342	$15.39	0.6%	0	1.0	—
SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 6,032	$14.64	0.6%	0	1.0	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,401	$13.10	0.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
AUG \| Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,342	$12.96	0.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,336	$12.95	0.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
P2000 \| Dispatch (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 5,323	$12.92	0.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 5,255	$12.75	0.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 5,198	$12.61	0.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
Souvenir XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 4,918	$11.93	0.6%	0	1.3	0.00×
MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,554	$11.05	0.6%	0	1.4	0.00×
Negev \| Bratatat (Factory New)weapon · 1	1 in 4,336	$10.52	0.6%	0	1.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 4,289	$10.41	0.6%	0	1.4	0.00×
Souvenir CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 4,274	$10.37	0.6%	0	1.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Ossified (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 4,125	$10.01	0.6%	0	1.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 4,097	$9.94	0.6%	0	1.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,050	$9.83	0.6%	0	1.5	0.00×
P250 \| Contaminant (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 3,794	$9.21	0.6%	0	1.6	0.00×
FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,786	$9.19	0.6%	0	1.6	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 2,877	$6.98	0.6%	0	2.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 2,844	$6.90	0.6%	0	2.2	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,724	$6.61	0.6%	0	2.3	0.00×
Galil AR \| Kami (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 2,591	$6.29	0.6%	0	2.4	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Delusion (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 2,405	$5.83	0.6%	0	2.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,394	$5.81	0.6%	0	2.6	0.00×
P90 \| Desert Warfare (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 2,361	$5.73	0.6%	0	2.6	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,353	$5.71	0.6%	0	2.6	0.00×
Nova \| Tempest (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,196	$5.33	0.6%	0	2.8	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Cobalt Halftone (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,186	$5.31	0.6%	0	2.8	0.00×
Galil AR \| Shattered (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 2,077	$5.04	0.6%	0	3.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,979	$4.80	0.6%	0	3.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,880	$4.56	0.6%	0	3.3	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Demeter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,809	$4.39	0.6%	0	3.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,798	$4.36	0.6%	7	3.4	2.03×
SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,793	$4.35	0.6%	1	3.5	0.29×
M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,760	$4.27	0.6%	0	3.5	0.00×
FAMAS \| Macabre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,688	$4.10	0.6%	2	3.7	0.54×
MAC-10 \| Aloha (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,651	$4.01	0.6%	0	3.8	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Hexane (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,620	$3.93	0.6%	2	3.8	0.52×
Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,615	$3.92	0.6%	4	3.8	1.04×
MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,608	$3.90	0.6%	2	3.9	0.52×
Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 1,568	$3.81	0.6%	4	4.0	1.01×
P250 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,558	$3.78	0.6%	2	4.0	0.50×
Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,542	$3.74	0.6%	7	4.0	1.74×
Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,537	$3.73	0.6%	1	4.0	0.25×
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,537	$3.73	0.6%	4	4.0	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,523	$3.70	0.6%	6	4.1	1.47×
Dual Berettas \| Panther (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,514	$3.67	0.6%	1	4.1	0.24×
Dual Berettas \| Retribution (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,505	$3.65	0.6%	4	4.1	0.97×
MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,503	$3.65	0.6%	6	4.1	1.45×
Dual Berettas \| Panther (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,475	$3.58	0.6%	7	4.2	1.66×
P2000 \| Red FragCam (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,459	$3.54	0.6%	2	4.3	0.47×
XM1014 \| Red Python (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,457	$3.54	0.6%	4	4.3	0.94×
FAMAS \| Hexane (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,441	$3.50	0.6%	3	4.3	0.70×
Souvenir Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,412	$3.43	0.6%	0	4.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,397	$3.39	0.6%	2	4.4	0.45×
CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,388	$3.37	0.6%	3	4.5	0.67×
PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,379	$3.35	0.6%	4	4.5	0.89×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,376	$3.34	0.6%	6	4.5	1.33×
MAG-7 \| Memento (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,298	$3.15	0.6%	2	4.8	0.42×
SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,273	$3.09	0.6%	7	4.9	1.44×
P250 \| Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,215	$2.95	0.6%	3	5.1	0.59×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,215	$2.95	0.6%	5	5.1	0.98×
PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,153	$2.80	0.6%	8	5.4	1.49×
Nova \| Ghost Camo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,044	$2.53	0.6%	7	5.9	1.18×
Tec-9 \| Isaac (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,034	$2.51	0.6%	4	6.0	0.67×
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 961	$2.33	0.6%	5	6.5	0.77×
Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 902	$2.19	0.6%	2	6.9	0.29×
MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 878	$2.13	0.6%	9	7.1	1.27×
Galil AR \| Sandstorm (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 878	$2.13	0.6%	5	7.1	0.71×
G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 857	$2.08	0.6%	6	7.2	0.83×
MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 852	$2.07	0.6%	8	7.3	1.10×
AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 836	$2.03	0.6%	4	7.4	0.54×
P2000 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,130	$1.92	0.2%	3	2.9	1.03×
Dual Berettas \| Balance (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,918	$1.73	0.2%	5	3.2	1.55×
P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,886	$1.70	0.2%	5	3.3	1.52×
MP5-SD \| Condition Zero (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,858	$1.68	0.2%	3	3.3	0.90×
SG 553 \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,844	$1.66	0.2%	3	3.4	0.89×
MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,747	$1.58	0.2%	5	3.6	1.41×
M249 \| System Lock (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,732	$1.56	0.2%	2	3.6	0.56×
UMP-45 \| Corporal (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 1,716	$1.55	0.2%	6	3.6	1.66×
M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 1,691	$1.53	0.2%	9	3.7	2.45×
Negev \| Dazzle (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,676	$1.51	0.2%	2	3.7	0.54×
SSG 08 \| Slashed (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,651	$1.49	0.2%	3	3.8	0.80×
MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,640	$1.48	0.2%	5	3.8	1.32×
M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,495	$1.35	0.2%	5	4.1	1.21×
MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,467	$1.32	0.2%	8	4.2	1.89×
M249 \| Magma (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,467	$1.32	0.2%	5	4.2	1.18×
MP9 \| Capillary (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,453	$1.31	0.2%	3	4.3	0.70×
MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,384	$1.25	0.2%	6	4.5	1.34×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,369	$1.23	0.2%	9	4.5	1.99×
P90 \| Module (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,337	$1.21	0.2%	7	4.6	1.51×
P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,300	$1.17	0.2%	8	4.8	1.68×
MP7 \| Armor Core (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,215	$1.10	0.2%	6	5.1	1.18×
Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,160	$1.05	0.2%	4	5.3	0.75×
SCAR-20 \| Torn (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,096	$0.99	0.2%	5	5.7	0.88×
P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,096	$0.99	0.2%	2	5.7	0.35×
FAMAS \| Teardown (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,075	$0.97	0.2%	7	5.8	1.21×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,030	$0.93	0.2%	12	6.0	1.99×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,020	$0.92	0.2%	4	6.1	0.66×
CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,006	$0.91	0.2%	3	6.2	0.49×
MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 997	$0.90	0.2%	2	6.2	0.32×
MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 943	$0.85	0.2%	11	6.6	1.67×
G3SG1 \| Murky (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 930	$0.84	0.2%	10	6.7	1.50×
P2000 \| Imperial (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 909	$0.82	0.2%	7	6.8	1.03×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 838	$0.76	0.2%	6	7.4	0.81×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 838	$0.76	0.2%	9	7.4	1.22×
Dual Berettas \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 823	$0.74	0.2%	3	7.5	0.40×
G3SG1 \| Ventilator (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 796	$0.72	0.2%	10	7.8	1.28×
Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 789	$0.71	0.2%	7	7.9	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 752	$0.68	0.2%	14	8.3	1.70×
SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 726	$0.66	0.2%	8	8.5	0.94×
XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 726	$0.66	0.2%	11	8.5	1.29×
G3SG1 \| Digital Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 718	$0.65	0.2%	10	8.6	1.16×
MP9 \| Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 717	$0.65	0.2%	5	8.6	0.58×
AUG \| Tom Cat (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 698	$0.63	0.2%	12	8.9	1.35×
M249 \| Deep Relief (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 673	$0.61	0.2%	8	9.2	0.87×
G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 672	$0.61	0.2%	16	9.2	1.73×
Nova \| Wood Fired (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 668	$0.60	0.2%	12	9.3	1.29×
Nova \| Ranger (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 664	$0.60	0.2%	12	9.3	1.28×
Negev \| Terrain (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 662	$0.60	0.2%	13	9.4	1.39×
Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 657	$0.59	0.2%	14	9.4	1.48×
P90 \| Freight (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 615	$0.55	0.2%	10	10.1	0.99×
SG 553 \| Aerial (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 615	$0.55	0.2%	9	10.1	0.89×
P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 601	$0.54	0.2%	9	10.3	0.87×
MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 600	$0.54	0.2%	8	10.3	0.77×
Sawed-Off \| Brake Light (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 572	$0.52	0.2%	10	10.8	0.92×
Nova \| Plume (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 545	$0.49	0.2%	14	11.4	1.23×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 523	$0.47	0.2%	13	11.9	1.10×
MAG-7 \| Popdog (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 508	$0.46	0.2%	1	12.2	0.08×
Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 503	$0.45	0.2%	19	12.3	1.54×
MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 480	$0.43	0.2%	17	12.9	1.32×
AUG \| Ricochet (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 478	$0.43	0.2%	8	13.0	0.62×
Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 467	$0.42	0.2%	10	13.3	0.75×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 466	$0.42	0.2%	17	13.3	1.28×
R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 466	$0.42	0.2%	4	13.3	0.30×
Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 466	$0.42	0.2%	11	13.3	0.83×
P2000 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 462	$0.42	0.2%	10	13.4	0.74×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 462	$0.42	0.2%	7	13.4	0.52×
FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 462	$0.42	0.2%	12	13.4	0.89×
Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 462	$0.42	0.2%	15	13.4	1.12×
MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 447	$0.40	0.2%	18	13.9	1.30×
Dual Berettas \| Shred (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 434	$0.39	0.2%	21	14.3	1.47×
R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 434	$0.39	0.2%	18	14.3	1.26×
P250 \| Iron Clad (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	—	$0.39	0.0%	16	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · Rare	—	$0.38	0.0%	0	0.0	—
PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	—	$0.38	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Mischief (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	—	$0.38	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	—	$0.37	0.0%	4	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	—	$0.37	0.0%	2	0.0	—
UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	—	$0.36	0.0%	9	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	—	$0.36	0.0%	6	0.0	—
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	—	$0.36	0.0%	20	0.0	—
AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	—	$0.35	0.0%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Atlas (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	—	$0.34	0.0%	0	0.0	—
SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	—	$0.34	0.0%	40	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 100	$0.34	0.8%	61	62.0	0.98×
MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 100	$0.33	0.8%	52	62.0	0.84×
Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.33	0.7%	34	62.0	0.55×
Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 100	$0.31	0.7%	74	62.0	1.19×
P250 \| Cassette (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 100	$0.31	0.7%	64	62.0	1.03×
Negev \| Ultralight (Factory New)weapon · 1	1 in 100	$0.30	0.7%	59	62.0	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.30	0.7%	78	62.0	1.26×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 100	$0.29	0.7%	58	62.0	0.94×
FAMAS \| Crypsis (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.29	0.7%	68	62.0	1.10×
MP7 \| Armor Core (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 100	$0.28	0.6%	76	62.0	1.23×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.28	0.6%	58	62.0	0.94×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 100	$0.28	0.6%	69	62.0	1.11×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$0.27	1.2%	122	124.0	0.98×
Negev \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.27	1.2%	60	124.0	0.48×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.24	1.1%	124	124.0	1.00×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$0.24	1.1%	123	124.0	0.99×
MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.24	1.1%	131	124.0	1.06×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 50	$0.23	1.0%	123	124.0	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.21	1.0%	117	124.0	0.94×
USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.21	1.0%	122	124.0	0.98×
G3SG1 \| Hunter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 50	$0.21	1.0%	132	124.0	1.06×
PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.20	0.9%	114	124.0	0.92×
AUG \| Triqua (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.20	0.9%	119	124.0	0.96×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.20	0.9%	112	124.0	0.90×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.19	0.9%	159	124.0	1.28×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 33	$0.18	1.2%	119	186.0	0.64×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$0.16	1.1%	146	186.0	0.78×
P90 \| Facility Negative (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$0.15	1.0%	159	186.0	0.85×
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$0.13	0.9%	194	186.0	1.04×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$0.12	0.8%	173	186.0	0.93×
PP-Bizon \| Runic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 33	$0.09	0.6%	656	186.0	3.53×
SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$0.08	0.5%	549	186.0	2.95×
SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$0.08	0.5%	817	186.0	4.39×
SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	24.5%	$0.08	4.2%	217	1519.2	0.14×

Values are DROP.SKIN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from dropskin:cases-service/slug/mil-spec/info, 11 Nov, 08:21 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Negev | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specoreos and pussy$0.39$0.270.69x2m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade0_0_0_0_0$0.39$0.180.46x6m

Tec-9 | Cut Out (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1jarek$0.39$3.819.76x9m

P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$0.39$0.190.49x10m

AUG | Triqua (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffScorpis999$0.39$0.200.52x11m

AUG | Triqua (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffghosteel$0.39$0.200.52x12m

MP7 | Armor Core (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecI cant win$0.39$0.280.71x14m

Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecJuStiCe | Mar1o <3$0.39$0.310.80x16m

SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1sssssss$0.39$0.080.19x21m

SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Well-Worn)weapon · milspeccanatallica$0.39$0.080.20x25m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 112.79%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$0.39	112.79%	213
10 Nov, 08:14 UTC	$0.39	110.94%	213
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$0.39	110.50%	213
8 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.39	110.17%	213
7 Nov, 10:51 UTC	$0.39	112.16%	213
6 Nov, 10:44 UTC	$0.39	113.32%	213
5 Nov, 10:38 UTC	$0.39	116.81%	213
4 Nov, 07:07 UTC	$0.39	114.95%	213
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$0.39	116.36%	213
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$0.39	114.94%	213

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 28.9%mil spec 19.3%Rare 5.4%blue 5.4%Mil Spec Grade 3.9%Mil Spec 0.2%milspec 19.6%#4b69ff 17.4%best hit —