Collection 2015

A case on GGDROP (annual-collections), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.25

Advertised RTP

92.05%

EV $3.91 from 67 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.40%

978 openings, odds method

Variance

3.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.60%±30.65132 openings

7 days

88.73%±12.39803 openings

30 days

90.40%±11.23978 openings

since tracking started

90.40%±11.23978 openings

55.5%86.8%118.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	132	86.60%±30.7	−0.3σ	odds
7d	803	88.73%±12.4	−0.5σ	odds
30d	978	90.40%±11.2	−0.3σ	odds
All	978	90.40%±11.2	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values67 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 978 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$193	1.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$157	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$147	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 8,333	$143	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$139	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 7,143	$136	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$135	0.6%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$133	0.5%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$130	0.5%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$130	0.7%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$128	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 6,667	$126	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$126	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$121	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$115	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,091	$109	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$105	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,882	$101	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$58.59	0.2%	1	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$55.40	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$39.69	0.2%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 6,250	$39.67	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$35.57	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$34.43	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$25.57	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$23.00	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$22.52	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 270	$17.59	1.7%	2	3.6	0.55×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 877	$17.11	0.5%	1	1.1	0.90×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 971	$16.95	0.4%	1	1.0	0.99×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 177	$16.80	2.4%	3	5.5	0.54×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 847	$15.07	0.5%	5	1.2	4.33×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$14.17	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 224	$14.10	1.6%	6	4.4	1.38×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 394	$14.00	0.9%	2	2.5	0.81×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 196	$13.63	1.8%	2	5.0	0.40×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 820	$12.96	0.4%	6	1.2	5.03×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$12.89	3.4%	6	10.2	0.59×
R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 124	$12.69	2.6%	5	7.9	0.63×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 171	$12.49	1.9%	7	5.7	1.22×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 127	$9.70	2.0%	9	7.7	1.17×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$8.81	2.9%	23	12.5	1.84×
MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 61	$8.66	3.6%	8	15.9	0.50×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 61	$8.49	3.6%	23	16.1	1.43×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$7.48	3.0%	18	15.4	1.17×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 55	$7.42	3.5%	18	17.8	1.01×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 52	$7.01	3.4%	33	18.7	1.76×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$6.93	5.8%	31	32.1	0.97×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$4.61	4.1%	32	33.8	0.95×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 27	$4.55	4.3%	32	35.8	0.89×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 22	$4.27	5.0%	38	44.6	0.85×
MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$3.39	5.1%	45	57.2	0.79×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 26	$3.11	3.1%	40	38.3	1.05×
StatTrak™ M249 \| System Lock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$2.19	2.8%	41	48.3	0.85×
MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 17	$2.15	3.2%	58	57.7	1.01×
FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1.79	2.3%	38	49.7	0.76×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 18	$1.77	2.5%	45	54.5	0.83×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 31	$1.70	1.4%	41	31.6	1.30×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 35	$1.70	1.3%	32	28.3	1.13×
M249 \| System Lock (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 31	$1.62	1.3%	34	31.4	1.08×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$1.36	1.1%	27	29.7	0.91×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 35	$1.23	0.9%	30	28.2	1.06×
StatTrak™ M249 \| System Lock (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 24	$1.14	1.2%	44	41.0	1.07×
M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1.08	1.4%	48	47.8	1.00×
MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 24	$1.01	1.1%	46	40.5	1.14×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 23	$0.88	1.0%	49	42.9	1.14×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 21	$0.81	1.0%	45	47.0	0.96×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/сollection2015, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specSavage$4.25$1.700.40x1h

StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecSavage$4.25$1.750.41x1h

SG 553 | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkSavage$4.25$4.571.08x1h

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil specSavage$4.25$3.120.73x1h

StatTrak™ M249 | System Lock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil specSavage$4.25$2.090.49x1h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Malachite (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedSavage$4.25$7.001.65x1h

FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedSavage$4.25$1.790.42x1h

Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedSavage$4.25$12.783.01x1h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedSavage$4.25$6.841.61x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.05%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.25	92.05%	67
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.25	92.05%	67
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.25	92.04%	67
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.25	92.08%	67
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.25	92.03%	67
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.25	92.06%	67
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.25	92.01%	67
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.25	92.10%	67
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.25	92.04%	67
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.25	92.09%	67
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.25	92.07%	67
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.25	92.10%	67
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.25	92.08%	67
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.25	92.03%	67
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.25	92.09%	67
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.25	92.09%	67
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.25	92.06%	67
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.25	92.05%	67
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.25	92.06%	67
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$4.25	92.08%	67

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%covert knife 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%red 0.0%classified 5.3%Restricted 0.4%Classified 0.1%mil spec 23.3%restricted 22.3%pink 8.8%#d32ee6 1.8%milspec 14.5%#8847ff 5.9%blue 2.9%violet 3.0%#4b69ff 2.9%Rare 8.3%best hit —