VAC-BAN

A case on GGDROP (multicases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$74.07

Advertised RTP

92.10%

EV $68.22 from 100 items

Observed RTP, 30d

95.55%

344 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

17 openings · below min

7 days

95.72%±10.60310 openings

30 days

95.55%±10.06344 openings

since tracking started

95.55%±10.06344 openings

52.5%98.8%145.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	17	98.79%±45.7	—	odds
7d	310	95.72%±10.6	+0.7σ	odds
30d	344	95.55%±10.1	+0.7σ	odds
All	344	95.55%±10.1	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values100 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 344 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,471	$558	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,695	$552	0.5%	1	0.2	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,695	$536	0.5%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 5,556	$507	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,471	$477	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,316	$453	0.5%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,163	$445	0.6%	0	0.3	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,190	$435	0.5%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$429	0.5%	0	0.3	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,639	$429	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$427	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,266	$394	0.5%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,099	$393	0.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 909	$387	0.6%	2	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 763	$385	0.7%	0	0.5	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,887	$373	0.3%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 769	$366	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 671	$331	0.7%	0	0.5	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 524	$319	0.9%	0	0.7	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 488	$313	0.9%	1	0.7	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 408	$300	1.1%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 524	$288	0.8%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 490	$277	0.8%	0	0.7	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 446	$266	0.9%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 444	$265	0.9%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 455	$264	0.9%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 457	$249	0.8%	2	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 483	$245	0.7%	1	0.7	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 405	$242	0.9%	2	0.8	—
UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 329	$233	1.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 362	$225	0.9%	1	0.9	—
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 324	$217	1.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 278	$209	1.1%	1	1.2	0.81×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 268	$198	1.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 266	$193	1.1%	2	1.3	1.55×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 266	$191	1.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 267	$189	1.0%	1	1.3	0.78×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 315	$188	0.9%	2	1.1	1.83×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 300	$187	0.9%	2	1.1	1.75×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 265	$181	1.0%	2	1.3	1.54×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 233	$181	1.1%	2	1.5	1.35×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 189	$168	1.3%	2	1.8	1.10×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 150	$155	1.5%	9	2.3	3.93×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 137	$149	1.6%	2	2.5	0.80×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 110	$144	1.9%	0	3.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 115	$139	1.8%	2	3.0	0.67×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 132	$128	1.4%	5	2.6	1.92×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 125	$127	1.5%	3	2.7	1.09×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 123	$125	1.5%	0	2.8	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 116	$124	1.6%	2	3.0	0.68×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · rare	1 in 150	$110	1.1%	2	2.3	0.87×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 124	$109	1.3%	0	2.8	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 108	$104	1.4%	7	3.2	2.20×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 93	$102	1.6%	0	3.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 183	$101	0.8%	3	1.9	1.60×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 132	$101	1.1%	3	2.6	1.15×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · sunny	1 in 156	$96.13	0.9%	1	2.2	0.45×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 139	$94.67	1.0%	1	2.5	0.41×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 125	$93.00	1.1%	1	2.7	0.36×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 101	$92.48	1.3%	5	3.4	1.47×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 99	$89.26	1.3%	4	3.5	1.15×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 97	$88.89	1.3%	3	3.5	0.85×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 84	$83.25	1.4%	3	4.1	0.74×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 68	$75.73	1.6%	5	5.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 64	$73.46	1.7%	2	5.4	0.37×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 51	$68.29	2.0%	5	6.7	0.74×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 52	$66.43	1.9%	5	6.6	0.76×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 61	$59.89	1.4%	3	5.7	0.53×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 56	$58.21	1.5%	4	6.2	0.65×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$56.38	1.3%	4	5.5	0.73×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 57	$54.51	1.4%	6	6.1	0.99×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 82	$54.35	1.0%	8	4.2	1.90×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 77	$48.69	0.9%	3	4.4	0.67×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 76	$47.52	0.9%	5	4.5	1.11×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 77	$46.80	0.9%	8	4.5	1.80×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$45.93	1.1%	5	5.5	0.91×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$45.90	0.6%	4	3.1	1.29×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 113	$45.75	0.6%	7	3.1	2.29×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 104	$44.27	0.6%	3	3.3	0.90×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 96	$39.69	0.6%	4	3.6	1.11×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 77	$39.67	0.8%	7	4.5	1.57×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$39.41	0.9%	8	5.4	1.47×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 60	$38.63	0.9%	5	5.7	0.88×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 103	$37.45	0.5%	3	3.3	0.90×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 82	$35.43	0.6%	5	4.2	1.19×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 69	$35.09	0.7%	3	5.0	0.60×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 62	$34.04	0.8%	4	5.6	0.72×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$33.71	0.8%	0	5.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 62	$30.16	0.7%	8	5.6	1.44×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 51	$28.25	0.8%	9	6.7	1.34×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 47	$27.81	0.9%	8	7.3	1.09×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 39	$27.39	1.0%	2	8.8	0.23×
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$27.13	0.8%	4	7.2	0.55×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 48	$27.09	0.8%	9	7.2	1.25×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$26.87	0.9%	10	8.1	1.24×
AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$26.86	1.1%	9	9.6	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$20.48	1.1%	18	12.4	1.45×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$20.22	1.3%	12	15.5	0.77×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 18	$19.87	1.6%	18	19.1	0.94×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 15	$19.65	2.0%	33	23.7	1.39×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/vac-ban, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife𝓍ℕⓄ𝓵1❻❻❼$74.07$5737.74x4d

AUG | Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covertkuzzi$74.07$5547.48x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covertL4he$T$74.07$89.971.21x44m

M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covertL4he$T$74.07$1922.59x44m

AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedL4he$T$74.07$26.570.36x44m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertL4he$T$74.07$67.750.91x44m

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covertL4he$T$74.07$47.620.64x55m

M4A4 | Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkkrelord.uuu$74.07$19.660.27x15h

M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedДаня вареник$74.07$26.970.36x16h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertGu1lty$74.07$2463.32x17h

USP-S | The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMr. fart$74.07$54.890.74x18h

M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedMr. fart$74.07$20.140.27x18h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.10%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$74.07	92.10%	100
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$74.07	92.08%	100
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$74.07	92.08%	100
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$74.07	92.08%	100
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$74.07	92.05%	100
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$74.07	92.03%	100
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$74.07	92.09%	100
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$74.07	92.07%	100
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$74.07	92.09%	100
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$74.07	92.06%	100
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$74.07	92.06%	100
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$74.07	92.08%	100
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$74.07	92.08%	100
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$74.07	92.00%	100

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 25.1%covert knife 1.5%covert 43.4%extraordinary 0.4%Classified 5.3%sunny 1.0%red 4.5%Covert 1.7%rare 0.7%gold 0.9%Ancient 2.4%#eb4b4b 0.8%pink 12.4%best hit $573 (7.74x)